Growing concerns are emerging regarding the potential reoccurrence of an Afghan-like scenario in Somalia in the near future. Specifically, these concerns revolve around the expansion of the terrorist group “Al-Shabaab’s” influence and control over the region, akin to the Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan, which saw them seize control of various provinces and eventually reach Kabul in August 2021.
These apprehensions were recently voiced by Djiboutian President Ismaïl Omar Guelleh, particularly in light of the second batch of African Union “AMISOM” forces withdrawing at the end of September. This pullout has heightened the pressure on counter-terrorism operations in Somalia.
Key Developments
The Djiboutian President’s warnings about the potential replication of the Afghan situation in Somalia are rooted in several ongoing developments related to counter-terrorism efforts and military operations against the “Al-Shabaab” movement. The most notable of these developments include:
- Security Vacuum Post-African Troop Withdrawal: There is a planned phased withdrawal of the African Union’s “AMISOM” forces from Somalia, with the final exit slated for the end of 2024. The number of troops withdrawn in each batch hinges on an assessment of progress in counter-terrorism operations, especially against “Al-Shabaab.” An agreement has already been reached to withdraw 5,000 troops from AMISOM in two stages, with the most recent phase concluding at the end of September.
Somalia has petitioned the United Nations Security Council to delay the withdrawal of the second batch of African Union forces by three months, pushing it to the end of December instead of September. However, the African Union rejected this proposal, maintaining the original withdrawal schedule, despite objections from the five African nations participating in these forces. Their argument centers on the precarious security situation on the ground, which renders the previously agreed-upon plans unfeasible.
There are concerns that the rapid withdrawal of these forces, given the complex battlefield conditions in counter-terrorism operations, could create a security vacuum, particularly in the regions they were stationed. This situation would further strain the Somali forces.
- Limited Somali Forces’ Response: Despite the progress achieved by Somali forces in their counter-terrorism operations since President Hassan Sheikh Mahmoud assumed office in May 2022 and initiated a comprehensive anti-terrorism campaign with the full backing of the international and regional communities to combat the “Al-Shabaab” movement, recent crises in Somalia have raised concerns about the implications of the planned withdrawal of African troops within the agreed-upon schedule.
Over the past two months, the battles involving Somali forces in counter-terrorism operations within central Somalia, particularly in the state of Galmudug, have revealed a limited response from these forces when confronting the “Al-Shabaab” movement. This is especially notable given the loss of certain towns recaptured by the movement after a series of intense attacks.
In a broader context, the military tactics employed by Somali forces are currently facing a crisis that necessitates a thorough review. It also calls for leadership changes within the Somali army, extending beyond the Chief of Staff to include some prominent leaders.
- “Al-Shabaab’s” Cohesion: While ongoing counter-terrorism operations span multiple geographic areas in Somalia and concentrate on liberating central regions from the grip of “Al-Shabaab,” the movement has displayed a level of cohesiveness in these battles over the past few months, particularly since the beginning of this year.
During the latter half of the previous year, the movement’s control and influence in central Somalia began to recede, resulting in considerable pressure on counter-terrorism operations that involve local militias from certain tribal regions within the central area. Nevertheless, the movement has maintained its operational activity within central Somalia, impeding the complete liberation of these regions from terrorism.
Due to “Al-Shabaab’s” cohesion in central region battles, the Somali President postponed the launch of the second phase of counter-terrorism operations aimed at liberating southern areas within the current year. Consequently, the focus of the Somali army has shifted towards engagements in the central region.
- Limited Deployment of Military Forces from Neighboring Countries: In conjunction with the withdrawal of African forces, Somalia has endeavored to compensate for the shortage of troops engaged in counter-terrorism and maintaining security. This has been achieved through agreements with neighboring countries for the deployment of military forces within its territory with the specific aim of countering the “Al-Shabaab” movement. These neighboring countries include Ethiopia, Djibouti, and Kenya, following discussions between their leaders and the Somali President.
Nonetheless, despite approximately seven months passing since the agreement to deploy military forces in Somalia, no tangible steps have been taken in this regard. This is primarily due to the internal challenges faced by these neighboring countries. Ethiopia is grappling with recurring internal armed uprisings, and there has been an upsurge in terrorist activities by “Al-Shabaab” in northern Kenya over the past few months, necessitating security measures on Kenya’s part.
Somalia has hinged its strategy on these agreements with neighboring countries to make up for the phased withdrawal of the African Union mission, which is set to conclude by the end of 2024. Consequently, the failure to address the withdrawal of African forces would result in a security imbalance.
- Crisis of Clan Participation in Military Operations: Somalia confronts a compounded crisis, particularly as active clan militia participation wanes. These militias played a role in countering the “Al-Shabaab” movement during battles in central Somalia over the past few months. In response, the Somali government has initiated measures to encourage the effective involvement of clans in counter-terrorism operations.
In this context, there have been reports of a potential move within the Somali government to integrate these local militias into the Somali army in the near future and allocate budgets to clan members. This indicates an increased reliance on these militias to confront the “Al-Shabaab” movement. Some assessments suggest that political disputes within Somalia hinder clan engagement in the operations of the Somali army.
Increased Pressure
There are certain parallels between my experiences with armed insurgency in Afghanistan and Somalia, as both scenarios involve multiple factors exerting pressure on counter-terrorism efforts aimed at eliminating the “Al-Shabaab” movement. The potential repercussions of the African troop withdrawal, leading to security vacuums, validate domestic and regional concerns about the expansion of “Al-Shabaab.” However, this doesn’t necessarily imply the likelihood of an identical scenario repeating itself.
The remarks made by the Djiboutian President might have been intended to exert pressure on the African Union, urging a reconsideration of the troop withdrawal plans from Somalia. This reconsideration is essential to conduct a thorough assessment of the on-ground situation and the Somali forces’ readiness to assume responsibility. The objective is to prevent the creation of a security void that “Al-Shabaab” could exploit, potentially allowing the group to regain control of lost territories and extend its influence further. This is particularly relevant since the movement has displayed adaptability and cohesiveness in battles within the central region.
Despite the departure of thousands of African troops, there is ongoing regional and international support for Somalia’s anti-terrorism endeavors. President Hassan Sheikh Mahmoud’s strong commitment to eradicating “Al-Shabaab” and prioritizing this mission since his election is particularly noteworthy.
The Somali President has sought to expedite the recapture of various areas in the central region before the withdrawal of the second wave of African troops. This urgency is driven by concerns about the challenges Somali forces would face in securing the areas from which these troops withdraw and in conducting counter-terrorism operations. However, achieving this goal has proven difficult, further intensifying the pressures on Somalia.