The announcement on July 26, 2021, that former Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati’s will be tasked with forming a new government, a few days after Saad Hariri’s apology, raised many questions about foreign interference with Mikati’s assignment. Mikati hinted about the existence of international and American guarantees to prevent the collapse of Lebanon, in addition to stating that the French will be deeply involved with the task of forming a government.
Despite this international support, Mikati’s success in forming the government remains fraught with many challenges, related to the political tensions dominating the Lebanese scene during the past months, which led to the failure of both Mustafa Adib and Saad Hariri to form a government. The situation is further complicated by the large number of foreign actors, and the competition and conflict between them over their conflicting agendas in Lebanon.
External support:
On July 26, Lebanese President Michel Aoun assigned the former Prime Minister Najib Mikati to form a new government, after the latter obtained approval from the Parliament by winning a majority vote of 72 votes. After his assignment, Mikati went out to declare that he “does not have a magic wand, and that he is counting on concerted efforts to succeed in the task of extinguishing the expanding fire in Lebanon.” He indicated, in an interview with the Lebanese newspaper “Al-Nahar”, on the same day, that “there are international and American guarantees that Lebanon will not collapse.” He also stressed, “that he wants to form a technical government, in order to follow the French initiative capable of helping Lebanon.”
It can be argued that Mikati’s chances of forming a new government are bolstered by a number of factors, including:
1- Personal experiences: Mikati’s personal experiences may increase his chances of obtaining international support, as he is known for taking over governments in times of crisis. He assumed the prime minister’s position temporarily in April 2005 after the assassination of Hariri, and then held the position for three months to supervise and prepare for the parliamentary elections. He was also appointed prime minister for a second time in June 2011 amid the turmoil of the Arab Spring.
Mikati presents the model of a politician who is open to many international parties and is active in a number of international organisations and forums. Mikati belongs to Lebanon’s upper wealthy class, and his business experience may in fact act in his favour in relation to garnering international support, as it is felt in international circles that these skills are necessary to deal with the various international institutions, such as the International Monetary Fund, that will be involved in the efforts to support the Lebanese economy. Some reports indicate that Mikati received international support on the condition that he commits to the Rapid Financing Instrument with the International Monetary Fund and forms a government that guarantees the launch of the reform program.
2. Mikati’s choice of a “technical” government: Mikati’s announcement about the nature of the new government may also encourage international support for his mission. In his interview with “An-Nahar” newspaper, Mikati declared “it is not possible to form a technopolitical government today,” but “we must go for a technical government”, since Lebanon is only a few months away from the parliamentary elections in May 2022, and must prepare the necessary decrees and laws.
3- French support: It seems that Mikati’s candidacy to form the new government comes with support from the French. During the past months, there have been numerous reports of Paris’s support for Mikati’s candidacy to head the government, bolstered by his good relationships with French officials such as the director of French intelligence, Bernard Emie.
France confirmed its support for Mikati following the announcement of his assignment. On July 26, the French Foreign Ministry spokeswoman, Agnes von der Mull, stated that “France has taken note of the naming of Najib Mikati to form the Lebanese government, and considers that the priority in Lebanon is to form a competent government that will be able to carry out the necessary reforms that the Lebanese people aspire to,” adding that “France calls on all Lebanese politicians to assume their responsibilities and allow the formation of a government that carries out reforms.”
4- The support of the US: The initial American reaction to the nomination of Mikati can be viewed as beneficial to his task in forming a government. The US State Department called on Mikati to form a new government quickly and demanded that he starts with reforms. The US has promised to provide aid to confront the economic crisis in Lebanon and is in agreement with the French regarding investments that will focus on the port of Beirut and the oil sector.
In addition, on July 30, Washington announced its support for European sanctions imposed on Lebanese entities and individuals that impede the process of forming a new government, which also implies US support for a Mikati government.
Remaining Challenges
Despite the factors that appear to strengthen Najib Mikati’s chances in forming the new government, he is confronted with a number of challenges that may undermine his efforts. There is a variety of regional and international powers seeking to exploit their influence in Lebanon to serve their own agendas. Iran, for example, has been accustomed during the last decade to dealing with regional issues as one interconnected package. Tehran is using the Lebanese file as a bargaining chip with international powers with the aim of strengthening its negotiating position in Vienna, to reach a new deal on the nuclear file that includes great economic returns, as well as lifting the US sanctions. This in turn is reflected in obstructing efforts to form a new government.
Moreover, the process of forming the new government is likely to face challenges related to conflicts between the Lebanese political forces. It appears that international powers are trying to force Lebanese political parties to agree with each other and neutralize conflicts as a tool to help Mikati succeed. This is evident in the European Union’s announcement, on July 30, of a legal framework for sanctions targeting Lebanese individuals and entities. The EU’s statement indicated that “this framework allows for the possibility of imposing sanctions on persons and entities responsible for undermining democracy or the rule of law in Lebanon.” The statement added that “EU sanctions will target persons obstructing this process, by imposing a travel ban to the European Union, and asset freezes on individuals and entities. In addition, persons and entities in the European Union are prohibited from making funds available to those on the list.”
It is therefore evident that Mikati’s mission faces many obstacles, including conflicts between domestic political forces, and external international actors with interests that do not coincide with the interests of the Lebanese people, all of which leave his chances of success in forming a government shrouded in uncertainty.