The Syrian Badia region is experiencing a surge in ISIS group operations, specifically targeting the Al-Quds Brigade. This brigade is loyal to the Syrian regime and is mainly stationed in the Badia. They have recently suffered three deadly attacks, resulting in the killing of approximately 9 of its members. It’s worth noting that although ISIS has previously targeted the Al-Quds Brigade, the recent attacks represent an increase in the number of operations attributed to the organization. These three attacks occurred on April 4, 5, and 6, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.
Key Features:
The Syrian Badia region has served as the primary launch base and headquarters for ISIS operations since the group’s defeat in the Baghuz battle four years ago. The region is located in central Syria and spans across the borders of Deir ez-Zor, Homs, Hama, Raqqa, Aleppo, and Suwayda provinces, as well as the countryside of Damascus. This vast area serves as a significant stronghold for ISIS groups, providing logistical support, searching for sources of funding, and planning operational activities in the northeast regions of Syria.
According to statistics from the Counter Extremism Project, in the past month of March, the total number of operations attributed to ISIS in central Syria, including the Badia region, amounted to around 35 attacks in three provinces: Homs, Hama, and Deir ez-Zor. These attacks resulted in the deaths of 9 pro-Syrian regime forces and caused 62 injuries among armed groups and civilians.
The Counter Extremism Project’s estimates indicate that the recorded number of operations in March is the highest rate of ISIS-related attacks in central Syria since September 2021 and the highest since the beginning of 2023. The following chart illustrates this trend:
What is the Al-Quds Brigade Militia?
The armed militia was established in Syria in 2013 to support the Syrian regime against opposition armed factions. It comprises of Syrians and other foreign nationalities and is currently under the leadership of Mohammad Al-Sa’eed. In 2015, Russia oversaw its restructuring, and it joined the “Fifth Corps” affiliated with the latter. It was subsequently redeployed towards Deir ez-Zor and the Badia, instead of Aleppo. The militia’s estimated membership is around 2500, with several reports indicating that it possesses 29 tanks, an armored personnel carrier, and 10 130mm howitzers. Additionally, it owns 120 vehicles equipped with anti-aircraft defense systems in Deir ez-Zor.
Different Motivations
The recent increase in operations attributed to ISIS in the Syrian Badia region against members of the “Liwaa al-Quds” militia can be explained by the following motivations:
- The escalation of ISIS group operations against the Liwaa al-Quds militia is an attempt to respond to the extensive security sweep campaigns and military operations. The Liwaa al-Quds militia participates in these operations alongside Syrian army forces in the Badia region, following operations attributed to ISIS groups during the past two months. Although the organization has not announced any operations in the Syrian Badia region against Syrian army forces or pro-government militias.
The organization targets the Liwaa al-Quds militia due to its prominent role in confronting it, especially in the areas of Tadmur and al-Sukhnah in the eastern countryside of Homs province. Local media reports indicate that the militia is cooperating with the National Defense Forces militia in launching combing operations in these areas. These areas have been witnessing ISIS group activity since late March.
- Enhancing the current status of the organization in the region: The operations attributed to ISIS groups targeting the Al-Quds Brigade are mainly defensive in nature. Most of the attacks were against forces participating in search operations, without targeting headquarters, barracks, or large gatherings of these militias’ elements. This means that the escalation of attacks is not aimed at expanding influence but rather securing the current status of the organization in the desert region.
In the past, ISIS groups targeted headquarters belonging to Al-Quds Brigade, as evidenced by local media reports that around 14 militia members were killed and others injured in an attack on a center belonging to the brigade in the Tadmur area, east of Homs province, in September 2022. However, recent operations attributed to ISIS have targeted patrols of the militia in areas where the organization has influence.
The organization aims to achieve its goal by targeting Al-Quds Brigade members in strategic areas such as Badia Al-Sukhnah and Tadmur Badia. These areas are crucial for the organization as they are used to launch terrorist operations towards northeast Syria and deep into the desert. Therefore, the organization seeks to confront any movements towards its areas of influence by escalating confrontations.
ISIS operations were not only limited to targeting Al-Quds Brigade, but also extended to include Syrian regime forces who participated in search operations in the eastern countryside of Homs. On April 8, an attack by the organization on Syrian army forces during a security sweep operation in the Badia Al-Sukhnah resulted in the killing of six soldiers.
- Possible withdrawal of Iranian factions to the Badia: The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights has suggested that the recent escalation of attacks by ISIS in the Badia region, particularly targeting the Al-Quds Brigade, may be an attempt to counteract any potential withdrawal of Iranian-backed militia elements from their positions in Deir Ezzor province, specifically west of the Euphrates towards the Badia region.
Although the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights’ information is more about field developments and the transfer of certain areas in Deir ez-Zor province to the Syrian army, especially since Iranian militias have capitalized on Russia’s preoccupation with the Ukrainian war to strengthen their grip on Syria, any possible movements of the Iranian factions towards the Badia region could pose a threat to ISIS’s influence there. As a result, the organization may increase its attacks against any efforts to comb the area.
- Over a year has passed since Russia became involved in the Ukrainian war, and their interest and focus on the Syrian battlefield, particularly on the operational level, has decreased. There has been a decrease in joint Russian-Turkish military patrols in de-escalation zones, and fewer airstrikes on areas controlled by armed factions classified as “opposition” to the Syrian regime.
The number of Russian airstrikes on areas suspected of being hideouts for ISIS has significantly decreased. Although Russian air forces have resumed airstrikes recently, they have been inconsistent and have failed to prevent the organization’s operations in the Badia region in the past few weeks.
The reduction in Russian airstrikes against ISIS in the Badia region could have enabled the organization to regroup and activate its cells and groups. This is due to the reduced pressure on the organization since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic and the beginning of the war in Ukraine.
Limitations of Capabilities
Although the organization has not officially announced any of the operations attributed to its groups in the Syrian Badia region, which has been its approach in recent years, there has been an escalation of operations in the Badia region in general, with a focus on targeting the Al-Quds Brigade. This can be understood as an attempt to activate its groups and direct operational activity towards the Badia region during the recent period. In contrast, the organization has been focusing on announcing its operations in the northeast regions of Syria that are under the control of the Syrian Democratic Forces militia.
According to data reported by the ISIS-affiliated Amaq agency, it appears that there has been a decline in ISIS’s operational activity in northeastern Syria during the months of February and March. This is despite ongoing operations by the US-led international coalition and the participation of the Syrian Democratic Forces.
The organization aims to adapt to the changes on the ground by shifting its operational activity between the Badia region and northeastern Syria. This depends on its ability to withstand security strikes and pursuits as part of the counter-terrorism efforts by both sides. However, there is no coordination between them to confront ISIS.
Based on operational activity indicators since the beginning of April, there has been an increase in the rate of activity in northeastern Syria compared to the months of January and February. This increase in activity coincides with the operational activity in the Badia region in April. However, it remains to be seen whether ISIS groups will be able to escalate operational activity on both fronts in the upcoming period.