There has been noted a decline in ISIS activity between last January and the first week of April 2023, when compared to the same period in 2022. This decline can be explained by the return of counterterrorism operations over the past year, after the coronavirus pandemic, that had allowed ISIS to reconstitute, became more contained in 2020 and 2021. In 2022, two ISIS leaders were assassinated within a close time span when compared to counterterrorism targets in previous years. These assassinations could have possibly created internal crises for ISIS at the organizational level, thereby affecting their operational activity. Moreover, strategic shifts in US counterterrorism, specifically in Syria, have focused on dismantling the organization’s logistical and financial networks. In addition, increased coordination between US partners in Iraq and Syria have worked to undermine ISIS activity, and its geographical mobility between the two states.

In a special online briefing, published on the US State Department’s website (24 April 2023), Major General Matthew McFarlane, Commander-in-Chief of the Joint Task Force-Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTF-OIR) and Dana Stroul, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense, announced a decrease in ISIS activity in both Iraq and Syria.

McFarlane, who took over CJTF-OIR in September 2022, maintained a decrease in ISIS activity in Iraq by 68% from early January until the first week of April, compared to the same period in 2022; and a 55% decrease in operations in Syria between the start of the year and the first week of April, compared to the same time period in 2022.

Declining capabilities

CJTF-OIR conducted a field assessment of ISIS operations in Iraq and Syria to determine the organization’s current capabilities. He emphasized that ISIS has failed to organize or coordinate anything more than small, and limited opportunistic engagements over the past year, indicating a decline in the organization’s combat capabilities.

Parallel to McFarlane’s assessment of ISIS threats in the two states, Aamaq, ISIS’s news agency, has also confirmed a decline in ISIS attacks, reporting around 35 operations in Iraq since early January to the first week of April, compared to 80 engagements during the same period in 2022.

In Syria, around 30 operations have been attributed to ISIS between early January to the first week of April, compared to 64 operations for the same period in 2022. However, it is important to keep in mind unreported attacks, particularly in Syria whether in Badia or in Daraa.

Dismantling networks

A number of factors have contributed to the decline in ISIS activity from early 2023 to the first week of April when compared to the same period in 2022. These include:

1. Escalating counter-terrorism measures following the recession of the coronavirus: CJTF-OIR assessments show a decrease in ISIS activity and effectiveness in 2023. Looking back, the increase in ISIS operations in both Iraq and Syria during the first quarter of 2022 can be explained in light of the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic in 2020 and 2021. The pandemic contributed to a decline in counter-terrorism measures, whether by the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS, or other US partners in Syria and Iraq. 

During this time, ISIS managed to reconstitute and fortify in Iraq and Syria, to the extent that it succeeded in freeing ISIS members from Gweiran prison in northeastern Syria (January 2022). Moreover, following the US announcement of the assassination of prominent ISIS leader Abu Ibrahim al-Hashimi al-Qurshi (February 2022), ISIS intensified its combat operations in response to his killing.

When compared to the same period in 2022, the decline in operational activity since early 2023 until the first week of April, indicates a return to normal counter-terrorism operations, in line with pre-coronavirus levels, according to an assessment by UN officials.

2. A broken chain of command: ISIS’s organizational structure suffers a broken chain of command. In 2022, the killing of two leaders of the group, Abu Ibrahim al-Hashimi al-Qurshi in northern Syria by US forces, and the second in the south of Daraa was likely killed accidentally in an operation to counter ISIS’s increasing activity in the governorate last October.

The decline in ISIS activity in both Iraq and Syria, during the time period examined by CJTF-OIR, shows that the assassination of the two ISIS leaders had an expanded impact on ISIS operations by undermining central command across the two states. The effects may have been caused by internal disagreement in terms of appointing new leaders and promoting second-row leadership, after the death or arrest of most first-row leaders, in various operations between Iraq and Syria over the past two years.

3. A strategic shift in counterterrorism: The decline in ISIS activity since the beginning of the year compared to the same period last year, can be attributed to a strategic focus by the US-led Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS in both Iraq and Syria, focusing on areas in northeastern Syria, following the withdrawal of most US troops from Iraq, although coordination with Iraqi forces continues.

By breaking into Gweiran prison in northeastern Syria (January 2022), ISIS demonstrated it’s growing capabilities to carry out large, coordinated operations. These capabilities had accumulated during the coronavirus pandemic, and called to attention the need for international intervention to counter the growth of terrorism within a strategy to dismantle terrorist networks. 

Counter-terrorism measure are not limited to bombings ISIS groups, assassinating ISIS leaders, but have expanded to include the targeting and arrests of second-row commanders and prominent members in Syria in particular through special forces. Arresting ISIS members is prioritized over assassination as arrested members can provide information on ISIS networks that were erected and maintained in 2020 and 2021.

The strategic shift counterterrorism has resulted in increased training for SDF elements, who serve as local partners to the Global Coalition in Syria, and erect blockades and checkpoints that can infringe on ISIS mobility in certain geographical areas. Such efforts include SDF-controlled Raqqa governorate, where they have succeeded in arresting over 200 suspected individuals last January.

4. Logistical and funding crises: Counterterrorism has broken the chain of command in ISIS, and undermined its activity when compared to the same time frame last year. It is creating a funding and logistical crisis for the organization. Indeed, limited funding and complicated logistics have impaired the potential for future operations, especially since American forces targeted ISIS elements providing logistical support that previously provided weapons or foodstuffs. 

Although ISIS attempts to diversify sources of funding depending on the local environments in which it operates, the loss of large areas of control in Iraq and Syria has led to a decline in funding. Typically, these areas of control had provided substantial financial resources, specifically through the sale of oil on the black market. However, US operations in north-eastern Syria, as well as combat measures by the SDF and bombings by Russian forces in Syria’s Badia have heavily undermined funding and logistical capabilities.

5. Increased coordination between US partners in Iraq and Syria: US reliance on local partners in Iraq and Syria has increased over the past year, with a view to increase support and coordination between the countries in order to improve capabilities and decrease reliance on US forces in counter-terrorism operations against the backdrop of the withdrawal of US combat troops from the Middle East, including Afghanistan, with the exception of Somalia. 

In 2022, increased coordination between the Iraqi forces and the SDF became more prominent. Additionally, there has been a noted cooperation with the Kurdistan region of Iraq, whereby SDF leadership have called on Mazloum Abadi to strengthen security and military coordination and cooperation with the Kurdistan region of Iraq in order to counter the threats posed by ISIS. In April of this year, the SDF announced the dismantling of an ISIS cell in Hasakah, with the participation of counter-terrorism efforts by the Kurdistan region of Iraq and the Global Coalition.

Unrelenting Pressure

Despite McFarlane statement’s concerning the decline in ISIS activity between January to the first week of April, compared to the same period in 2022, this does not necessarily mean that ISIS operations will continue to decline in the coming period, especially given the organization’s resilience and adaptability. Despite all pressures, ISIS has managed to sustain some activity and may be working to resume its previous levels of engagement in the next few months. 

Notwithstanding the effects of counter-terrorism efforts on ISIS activity, sustained lobbying and increased coordination between the US and its partners in Iraq and Syria could lead to the scaling up of ISIS groups. The probability that this may create crises in both states will become apparent in the second and third quarter of this year.