On September 28, 2021, the Sudanese security authorities announced the arrest of a terrorist cell affiliated with ISIS, consisting of 15 people with different nationalities. Eleven of them were arrested, while four others managed to escape from a building in the suburb of “Jabra” south of the capital, Khartoum. The operation resulted in the arrest of cell members, while its leader, Mahmoud, an Egyptian national, was arrested in Port Sudan. Five (two officers – 3 non-commissioned officers) of the Sudanese police were also killed and a few others were wounded. 

The arrests were further proof that ISIS and Al-Qaeda are escalating their activities in Sudan, other indications include:

1- Sudanese security and intelligence authorities have announced since early 2021 the arrest of several sleeper terrorist’s cells in separate areas in the capital, Khartoum. Among their members were individuals that were not Sudanese nationals with explosives and plans to launch terrorist operations inside Sudan.

2-The discovery of a terrorist cell affiliated with the terrorist organization Al-Qaeda last June. This cell consisted of 9 people (4 Sudanese – 5 from other nationalities).

3-The discovery of a sleeper cell affiliated with the terrorist organization ISIS in the eastern province of Gedaref. This came after reports last February that security authorities monitored several videos on Facebook of the ISIS flag being raised and calls for their intentions to establish a new emirate under the command and jurisdiction bringing all countries into the fold. 

An environment conducive for terrorist activity

The discovery of this terrorist cell indicates that ISIS is interested in using Sudan as a base for planning and launching attacks inside Sudan and in neighboring countries. The escalation of ISIS activity in the country can be explained by several factors:

1. Increased activity of armed gangs and terrorist organizations. The country is suffering from instability and during the past two months, tribal and ethnic clashes have intensified in several Sudanese states, especially in the east of the country and in the Darfur region, along with escalation in Khartoum with armed gangs.  Furthermore, looting, theft of public and private property and intimidation of civilians occurred all over Sudan. Weapons are readily acquired by civilians and tribes. This environment encouraged elements loyal to ISIS to form cells attracting individuals that believes in its ideas and ideological orientations within the capital, Khartoum.

2. An unstable environment. The political, economic, social and security situation inside the country is difficult, which has allowed ISIS to attract new members to its ranks through financial incentives. ISIS has made use of the deteriorating economic and social conditions to spread extremist and false religious ideas among the population to bolster its ranks, while also forming sleeper cells, relying on them when needed to launch terrorist operations.

3. Coordination with the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt and Sudan. A key reason for the rise of ISIS in the country is coordination with the Muslim Brotherhood, which is classified as a terrorist organization in Egypt, and is politically isolated in Sudan. Individuals affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood that fled from Egypt to Sudan, have been implicated in the cells discovered by the Sudanese authorities, which prompted a request by Egypt for them to be handed over. 

4. The use of social networking sites to recruit new elements. ISIS has recently relied on spreading its ideas and attracting new members to its ranks by employing social networking sites, such as Facebook and Twitter. Social networks helped ISIS penetrate Sudanese society, and enabled its members to communicate, learn more about recruitment and training, which helped them expand. The organization targeted young people, especially university students, who were recruited and sent to training camps located on the Sudanese border.

5. The need for a new base of operations.  ISIS leaders had previously considered Sudan as a suitable country to train its members in camps prepared by “Al-Bashir” to house cells belonging to Al-Qaeda. Sudan could, from their perspective, serve as a new launching pad for operations, as its operations have been restricted in Syria, Iraq, and Turkey who want to reconcile and restore diplomatic relations with Egypt.

6. The existence of “ungoverned” areas in Sudan. Geography plays an important role that help terrorist organizations infiltrate Sudan, in view of the situation in neighboring countries such as Libya, in which many armed terrorist organizations operate. Criminal organizations active in smuggling people and arms across borders have helped facilitate the movement of militants into Sudan. Recently, the Sudanese armed forces, in conjunction with their Chadian counterparts, have achieved success in stemming such flows across the borders between Sudan, Libya and Chad.

7. Attempts to overthrow the present regime. It is noteworthy that the escalation of ISIS activity in the Sudan  coincides with efforts from elements affiliated with the fallen regime to regain power, exemplified by the failed military coup attempt which occurred lately. This reflects the attempts of the supporters of the ousted president “Al-Bashir” to use the increased terrorist activities to apply pressure on the current transitional government with the aim of emphasizing their inability to confront the dangers of these terrorist organizations while presenting the return of the Islamists as the only solution to bring back the rule of law and order and prevent further terrorist escalations. 

Two possible scenarios

According to the current information available, there are two possible scenarios regarding the escalation of the activities of the terrorist organization ISIS in Sudan during the coming period:

1. An escalating role: According to this scenario, the coming period will witness a noticeable escalation in ISIS. ISIS has increased its presence in Sudan after the previous regime was overthrown, aided by the preoccupation of the transitional government with disputes between its military and civilian components. The security situation in Darfur, in western Sudan, is still conducive to the infiltration of ISIS members from adjacent countries in the Sahel region, as well as Libya. Moreover, Islamists within Sudan are keen to create domestic disturbances in their bid to return to power. Such a scenario would have a negative impact on Sudan’s national security.

2. Limited activity: In this scenario, ISIS would continue its terrorist activities in the country to a limited degree. Intelligence and security efforts to pursue ISIS and Al-Qaeda cells, will in this scenario succeed in containing the organization’s activities, as it has been able to uncover several cells during the last few months. It is likely that the fluid security situation in Sudan may allow ISIS to carryout operations from time to time.

To conclude, the situation on the ground indicates that ISIS sleeper cells represent a threat to its national security, which is likely to prompt Khartoum to renew its request to join the Group of Sahel-Saharan States (Chad – Niger – Mali – Mauritania – Burkina Faso) as an observer member with the aim of strengthening cooperation to confront terrorism. Khartoum is also likely to seek to activate the quadripartite security agreement with Libya, Chad, and Niger for the same purpose. As more  ISIS  cells could be uncovered in the near future, the transitional government will need to take more security measures to protect the country’s national security against this growing risk.