The Comoros Islands hold great importance in Washington’s efforts to strengthen maritime cooperation in the Indian and Pacific Oceans as part of its maritime strategy. Several factors contribute to this significance, with the strategic location of the Comoros Islands near the Mozambique Channel being the most prominent.
The Mozambique Channel serves as a crucial maritime route, facilitating the passage of approximately 30% of global oil tankers. Additionally, it represents a potential alternative route for international trade. Moreover, enhancing cooperation with the Comoros Islands can serve as a measure to counter Chinese expansion in the region and balance the French military presence. In summary, the strategic location and geopolitical considerations make the Comoros Islands a focal point for Washington’s maritime strategy in the Indian and Pacific Oceans.
These factors could lead to several potential effects, such as increased competition between the United States and China in maritime affairs, the formation of alliances and counter-alliances in the region, and heightened regional and internal political polarization within African countries.
On the recent 4th of July, U.S. Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, made a statement published on the U.S. State Department’s website in honor of Comoros National Day. He stated, “This year has marked a turning point in expanding our relationship with the people of the Comoros.” Additionally, he explained that Washington and Moroni had signed a joint statement on ways of cooperation and hosted a prominent U.S. official in Comoros. This development raises questions about the reasons behind the increasing American interest in enhancing cooperation with Comoros, especially at a time when many international powers have been focused on strengthening their relations with island nations, including Comoros, Seychelles, Mauritius, and Madagascar, to bolster their presence in the region.
This interest is particularly evident concerning China, as it pursues its maritime strategy and the “Belt and Road Initiative” to connect countries in the region. China aims to establish a network of interconnected ports linking the coastal countries of East Africa to West Asia and China. This move enables China to extend its economic and military influence beyond its maritime borders, safeguarding its economic, political, and military interests.
Meanwhile, the United States and France maintain substantial military presence in the region, and both are striving to preserve and expand their maritime influence amidst the activities of China and Russia in the area.
Multiple Factors
Several factors contribute to the increasing American interest in enhancing cooperation with the Comoros Islands, and among the most important ones are:
- Strategic Significance of the Comoros Islands: The Comoros, an African island nation situated in the southwest of the Indian Ocean, occupies a crucial strategic position near the Mozambique Channel, a vital maritime route through which around 30% of global oil tankers pass. Moreover, it presents a potential alternative route for international trade. The island also lies along a major shipping corridor utilized by China for transporting oil. As various international powers compete to strengthen their presence in the region to safeguard their interests, trade, and oil supplies via the Indian Ocean, the Comoros emerges as a focal point.
China views it as an ideal location to establish intelligence monitoring stations for observing international movements in the area and for satellite communications. Consequently, the United States aims to bolster its military, economic, and political presence on this island of significant economic and strategic importance, particularly following reports of oil and gas discoveries in the region.
- Containing Chinese Expansion in the Region: The Chinese military strategy (2020 edition) adopts a “two-ocean” approach, with a focus on the Pacific and Indian Oceans. It aims to establish “strategic maritime support points” and a “strong two-ocean plan” to effectively respond to potential crises. China’s strategy involves building bases in the Indian Ocean, primarily aimed at addressing the “Malacca Dilemma.” This dilemma arises from the fact that a significant portion of China’s imports from the Middle East and Africa, including 80% of its oil, traverses the maritime corridors in the Indian Ocean, which are guarded by potential adversaries, most notably the U.S. Navy.
To safeguard its trade routes and ensure the security of its oil and gas supplies across the ocean, China is actively seeking to construct military bases in the western Indian Ocean. These bases are planned to be located along the Tanzanian coast and on African islands, particularly Seychelles, Mauritius, and the Comoros. This strategic move is intended to bolster China’s presence and control in the region, countering potential threats to its vital economic interests.
- Balancing French Military Presence in the Region: France has maintained a longstanding presence in the Indian Ocean, primarily through its military installations on scattered islands in the region. However, there is an increasing need for Washington to address and balance this French influence, particularly in light of the growing maritime competition between the two powers in both the Indian and Pacific Oceans.
The situation was further complicated by the formation of the security alliance known as AUKUS, comprising Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States. This alliance led to the cancellation of the French-Australian submarine deal, prompting France to advocate for greater strategic independence for the European Union. During its presidency of the European Council from January to June 2022, Paris focused on strengthening and empowering Europe to act independently, reducing reliance on the United States to meet security needs, and lessening economic dependence on China.
This shift in focus came amidst rising concerns over Beijing’s economic assertiveness and ambitions for dominance. As a result, France aimed to build a more capable and self-reliant Europe that can navigate its security concerns and economic interests without being solely reliant on external powers.
Possible Implications:
It is evident that American interest in enhancing relations with the Comoros is linked to the U.S. maritime strategy in the Indian and Pacific Oceans, aiming to contain Chinese expansion. As a result, this strategy is expected to elicit potential reactions from other powers interested in bolstering their presence in the region, notably China, Russia, and France. The possible implications are as follows:
- Increase in U.S.-China Maritime Competition: The American military diplomacy in the region is likely to prompt corresponding reactions from Beijing. China, in turn, provides development assistance to countries in the area, aiming to secure favorable deals that grant it access to maritime and military facilities. As a result, it is anticipated that China will continue its efforts to entice regional countries, particularly those like Mozambique, Namibia, Seychelles, and Tanzania, which receive more than 90% of their weapon shipments from China. China has strategic plans to further expand its investments in maritime ports, with a particular focus on Seychelles and Tanzania.
Numerous reports indicate several potential sites for Chinese base construction in the region, with a particular emphasis on Namibia, Kenya, Seychelles, and Tanzania. It is likely that China will concentrate on improving the infrastructure of existing ports and constructing dual-use facilities. By offering access to both commercial ports and selective military installations, China aims to downplay the overt military significance of its strategic investments in these ports. However, this development is expected to intensify the growing competition between the United States and China in the western Indian Ocean and along the eastern coasts of the African continent.
- Growing Alliances and Counter-Alliances in the Region: There is a noticeable trend towards military coordination between Washington and Paris to address the challenge posed by Beijing’s growing influence. Despite some competition between the United States and France to increase their presence in the Indian and Pacific Ocean region, there appears to be an understanding between the two nations regarding the importance of joint coordination in countering China and fostering cooperation with regional countries. This has led to the formation of additional alliances in the Indian and Pacific Ocean region.
Conversely, China and Russia have moved towards strengthening maritime cooperation as a response to the joint coordination between the United States and France. Russia aims to establish military bases in coastal countries of the Indian Ocean to counter the influence of the United States and other Western nations in the region.
Hence, Russia is aligning its maritime strategy with coordination involving China and African countries in the region, particularly with South Africa, which holds a strategically significant position in the Indian Ocean. Both Russia and China have bolstered their maritime coordination and cooperation with South Africa in recent years, as evidenced by joint military exercises conducted in February of the preceding year. This collaboration may lead to the possibility of South Africa hosting regular naval visits from Russia and China in the South Indian Ocean, potentially resulting in the establishment of military facilities in the area. Washington has already expressed mounting concerns regarding the political alignment between China, Russia, and South Africa.
- Increased Regional and Domestic Political Polarization in African Countries: The competition between the United States and China in the region is projected to escalate regional polarization among African nations. On one side, there are countries that support China’s policies and welcome the establishment of Chinese bases on their territories. On the other side, there are countries that align with American policies and are open to the construction of American bases on their territories. This heightened competition has also exacerbated domestic political divisions within African countries.
Governments and political opposition forces have taken opposing stances on the matter, with some strongly opposing the establishment of foreign bases on their soil. For instance, Kenya experienced widespread protests in 2020 when media outlets reported on China’s plans to build a new base in the country. These developments indicate how the rivalry between major powers can contribute to political polarization both within and between African nations.
Maritime Power
Overall, as part of its maritime strategy to counter Chinese actions and balance French military presence in the Indian Ocean region, Washington aims to strengthen cooperation with the African island nations. However, there exists an understanding between the United States and France regarding the importance of coordination and cooperation in addressing Chinese expansion in the area. As a result, American maritime diplomacy in the region is anticipated to intensify U.S.-China competition and lead to the formation of additional alliances and counter-alliances.
Meanwhile, Beijing and Moscow are directing their efforts towards enhancing maritime cooperation with countries in the region.