Germany is preparing for its Parliamentary elections this coming September, which in turn will elect Chancellor Angela Merkel’s successor. Merkel had announced that she would not run for a fifth term, after 16 years of leading the German federal government. Merkel’s succession process has proven rife with complications, including the large number of nominations to succeed her. Conversely, Merkel’s absence from the political scene comes amid new changes and challenges for the German leadership. The coronavirus pandemic has triggered lasting economic and health repercussions, while some of the country’s major powers are facing additional challenges. This is the case with the Christian Democratic Union of Germany, which is witnessing an escalating struggle within.

Possible Candidates

A number of possible candidates for the German Chancellery have recently emerged, hailing from different political affiliations and with a variety of experiences. The most prominent of these candidates include:

Annalena Baerbock: The forty year old mother of two is the first candidate in history to be nominated by the Green Party for the position of chancellor. She had been elected co-leader of the party with Robert Habeck in 2018. She joined the party in 2005, after completing a Masters’ degree in law from the London School of Economics. Baerbock considers herself a “passionate European”, which is a core party value, and presents herself as the candidate “of renewal”, as opposed to the two other, older, male, opposing candidates, whom she depicts as pro status quo. She is the least experienced of the candidates for the position of chancellor, but an opinion poll of business leaders in Germany taken in April show her to be their favorite.

Armin Laschet: Armin Laschet, who is 59, was elected as the new president of the Christian Democratic Union in January and has been chosen as CDU/CSU candidate for the position of chancellor. He presents himself as a continuation of Merkel’s era, whose vision he supports. A poll conducted by the German ZDF network in January revealed that only 28% of Germans believe he would make a good chancellor. Merkel herself said last year that he possesses the necessary tools to compete for the seat of chancellor. However, he faced accusations of favoritism related to requests made by his government for masks and protective equipment provided by a local textile company. Opinion polls in recent months have placed him second to Baerbock.

Olaf Scholz: In August of last year, the Social Democratic Party announced the nomination of Minister of Finance and Deputy Chancellor Olaf Scholz to succeed Merkel. Prior to his current positions, he held the post of mayor of Hamburg from 2011 to 2018. The Social Democrats will provide massive support to Scholz and his popularity will serve the party. He has demonstrated his competence on economic and social policy, by providing a financial emergency package to counter the effects of the pandemic. He is rated third in opinion polls but has expressed a belief that he still has a chance of outperforming his two opponents.

While Angela Merkel’s overwhelming popularity enabled her, by sheer force of personality and her choice of policies, to retain her position as chancellor despite the party’s crises, now the German political arena is a field for competition between near-equal politicians. Merkel’s departure marks the end of an exceptional era in German politics, and there is no consensus among Germans on a single figure to assume leadership. This has left the field open, making it difficult to determine who will be the German Peoples’ choice for this position.

Factors that could impact choice of Chancellor:

 Changing Public Mood

Public mood and opinion polls play a role in the process of selecting the new Chancellor, as they can serve to motivate or deflate potential candidates, and direct the selection process within parties and alliances towards nominating the most popular and most likely candidate to win. It is a complex,  dynamic and unpredictable process. Opinion polls have often failed to predict the outcome of elections. In recent months, candidates’ ratings have varied in opinion polls, in a manner which reflects the unpredictable nature of this election. While the Green’s candidate has topped the list , her reputation was slightly tarnished recently by a number of issues, and therefore her position is not secure.

 Election Results: How the parties themselves fare in the upcoming elections will have of course a decisive impact on who becomes chancellor. Opinion polls show that the Greens reached highs of almost 28% in April, up almost 6%, while CDU/CSU alliance popularity fell by 2%, winning only 27% of the voters. However, the Greens have since met with some mishaps, and are experiencing a decline in the polls, making the outcome uncertain. It is however expected that the Greens will be part of any ruling coalition to be formed following the election, and therefore appear to be in the position of kingmaker even if they do not win the highest percentage of votes.

Merkel’s Support: Angela Merkel transformed the German election scene two years ago with her announcement that she would not run for the position of Chancellor, after her success in retaining the position four full terms. Considering her great popularity and political role, it is possible that Merkel will play a role in the ongoing process to select her successor, and that her support will boost the chances of whomever she endorses. However, this does not guarantee this candidate success,  as Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer who Merkel hand-picked to succeed her within the party was forced to withdraw from the race despite Merkel’s support.

 The impact of Covid-19: The Covid-19 pandemic has played a pivotal role in shaping German public opinion towards politicians and potential chancellor candidates.  How officials handled this crisis, successfully or otherwise, will have a great impact on the outcome of the parliamentary elections.

In conclusion, Germany faces one of its biggest political challenges in recent history this year, as it begins the process of electing a successor to Angela Merkel. The choice of candidate will greatly impact Germany’s future trajectory, and the competition remains, at this point open, pitting a young, female, change-oriented candidate, against two older, male, well experienced establishment figures. Europe and the world are following this contest with great interest, as it will have consequences far beyond Germany itself.