Greece has long-term ties and a history of cooperation in various fields with many Arab countries, but perhaps the most significant cooperation between the two sides is taking shape in the Eastern Mediterranean. Focused on discoveries of natural gas, this new phase of cooperation is leading to a new configuration of alliances and competition in the region.
Greece signed a memorandum of understanding with the Arab League in Cairo on July 13th, 2021, an event which highlighted ties between the parties, and reflected a willingness to consult and extend mutual support on major issues. The memorandum reflects Athens’ interest in expanding its relations with Arab countries in view of the geopolitical developments taking place in the Arab region and the Eastern Mediterranean, and to achieve political and economic objectives.
There are numerous objectives to be gained by stronger cooperation between Greece and the Arab world, these include:
1- Strengthening Greek influence: Through this rapprochement, Greece seeks to expand its influence on the international and Arab scene. Despite its faltering economy, that has been struggling since the start of the global financial crisis in 2007, and its marginalized position within the European Union; it’s strategic geographical location could give Greece greater geopolitical influence in the Arab world, as it is located between three continents (Africa, Asia, and Europe), and has a strategic location on the Mediterranean Sea. It also possesses three ports that are used to transport goods, oil, and gas to the countries of the European Union. Therefore, Greece is trying to present itself as the link for Arab countries to utilize and strengthen economic and political relations with the countries of the European Union.
In addition to the above, Greece has strong religious and cultural ties with the countries of Serbia and North Macedonia, which could make it a gateway that can help encourage Arab countries to invest in the Balkans and to develop relations with the Muslim population in those countries, enabling them to counter Turkey’s influence in those regions
2- Strengthening military cooperation with Arab countries: Greece has been strengthening its military capabilities recently and its military expenditures now exceed 2% of its GDP. It has recently made numerous military acquisitions including the advanced American made F-35 aircraft and reaching an agreement with France to purchase the military “Rafale” aircraft. France has also expressed its support for Greece in countering recent aggressive Turkish moves, such as its deployment of naval frigates near Greece. This makes Greece a relatively reliable military force for the it allies.
3- Balancing against the loss of American support: During the June 2021 tour by US President Joe Biden to Europe to attend several conferences, including the European Union and the United States summit and the NATO summit. In his speeches, President Biden mentioned the “Eastern Mediterranean” only once, stressing that the best way to resolve tensions in this region is through dialogue and diplomacy, and to support cooperation with “democratic” Turkey.
Biden added that he would be meeting with his Turkish counterpart, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, on the side-lines the NATO summit, while he did not meet with Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis, which raised concerns among the Greeks that they may lose US support. Biden’s actions showed that the Americans are more interested in improving relations with Turkey, and that they perceive Turkey as having a more important role in the eastern Mediterranean. Considering this, Athens is keen to create alliances in the Middle East to strengthen its position in case it loses the support of the United States.
4- Enhancing ties with the Arab Gulf states: The signing of the memorandum of understanding is a continuation of the efforts to enhance relations between Greece and Arab countries during the past two years. In November 2020, Greece and the UAE signed a comprehensive strategic partnership agreement aimed at cooperation in the areas of development, defence, politics, tourism, energy, food, agriculture, digital and government services. This cooperation reflects the two sides wish to collaborate in countering Turkish moves in the eastern Mediterranean, as well as the UAE’s desire for closer ties with the European Union.
In addition, Greece is seeking to deepen security and political cooperation with Saudi Arabia; where a joint military exercise was carried out between the Greek and Saudi air forces in March 2021, known as “Falcon Eye 1”. Greece also agreed to lend Saudi Arabia Patriot missiles, which would help the Saudis protect their infrastructure from Houthi attacks. On its part, Saudi Arabia is to provide funding to further develop those missiles.
Thus, these and other agreements are likely to increase cooperation between the Gulf Cooperation Council and Greece, and therefore by extension with the European Union. This represents an implicit indication that Europe is about to play a greater role in the geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East.
5- Preserving economic interests: Greek policy towards Arab countries is motivated by the preservation of Greek interests. This was illustrated by the developments in Greek-Egyptian relations since 2014, which was motivated by gas discoveries in the eastern Mediterranean region. This led to the formation of an important alliance between Egypt, Cyprus, and Greece. Moreover, Egypt, Israel, Cyprus, Greece, Italy, Jordan, and Palestine in 2019 established the East Mediterranean Gas Forum (EMGF). Greece and Egypt also exchanged official visits to discuss means of cooperation between the two countries on how to develop the East Mediterranean Gas Forum.
6- Containing the Tensions Raised by Turkey: The developments that followed the Arab Spring in 2011, especially the new gas discoveries in the East Mediterranean, resulted in a change of regional dynamics. Ankara sought to establish a wider sphere of influence for itself, and its relations with Athens became more strained over time. For example, Turkey used the refugee crisis to pressure Greece , pushing large numbers of the migrants to the Turkish-Greek border in February 2020, with the aim of pressuring European Union countries after they criticized the Turkish military operations in northern Syria.
Tensions have also increased as a result of the “Mavi Vatan” or “Blue Homeland” strategy that Turkey adopted, with the aim of benefiting from oil and gas resources in the Eastern Mediterranean. In accordance with this strategy, Turkey signed a maritime border demarcation agreement with Libya in November 2019, and embarked on gas exploration in disputed areas with Greece and Cyprus, which caused confrontations between Turkish and Greek warships , and provoked the French to respond by sending their ships to retaliate against potential Turkish attack.
In this context, Athens aspires, to expand its relations with Arab countries, to balance Turkish influence, increase pressure on Ankara, and contain tensions with it. Even if there were to be a rapprochement between Turkey and the Arab countries, this may benefit Greece, as Egypt could possibly mediate between Greece and Turkey.
Future Scenarios
The future of Greek-Arab relations could follow one of three scenarios:
1- Closer Arab-Greek relations: The US has announced on several occasions its intention to decrease its involvement in the Middle East, which is prompting Arab countries, especially the Gulf Cooperation Council countries, to search for new partners such as Greece and other countries of the Union European.
Moreover, tense Turkish-Arab relations have played a role in strengthening Arab-Greek relations; Therefore, if tensions continue between Turkey on the one hand, and Greece and the Arab countries on the other hand, Arab-Greek relations are likely to grow stronger, as a means of applying pressure on Turkey to reverse its policy of raising tensions in the region, and as abridge between the Arab world and Europe.
2- A decline in relations: If the situation were to change, with Ankara modifying its regional behaviour, and if the United States were to assure its regional allies that it will continue to provide them with support, the Arab alliance with Greece may lose its momentum. The strength Greece brings to the alliance cannot compare to American power, and an alliance with the European Union will appear less important, especially the eastern Mediterranean region would be more stable if Turkey changes its behaviour.
3- A pragmatic Arab approach: This scenario assumes the formation of a more balanced relationship between the Arab region and all regional parties, which would contribute to more stability in both the Arab and eastern Mediterranean regions. This scenario may ease the existing tensions between Greece and Turkey, and strengthen the geopolitical influence of some Arab countries in the Balkans, as well as with countries within the European Union.