Although the administration of US President Joe Biden affirmed Israel’s right to defend itself in the wake of the “Al-Aqsa Flood” operation on October 7, it is pressuring Israel not to be drawn into a large-scale ground war in Gaza against Hamas, according to several reports. From US reports, for fear of its ally making the mistakes that the United States made in the wake of the September terrorist events, and expanding the scope of the Israeli war into a regional war whose repercussions will not be limited to threatening the security and stability of the Middle East, but will be global, in addition to the administration’s desire to give more time. For the efforts of its allies to release the hostages held by Hamas. The execution of a thorough terrestrial incursion into Gaza by Israel is likely to precipitate a multitude of implications for the US hegemony within the Middle Eastern geopolitical landscape. Concurrently, it may engender a series of domestic reverberations, potentially undermining President Biden’s prospects for securing a subsequent presidential tenure.
Netanyahu’s threat of a Gaza Strip ground invasion, aimed at Hamas, could lead to a population genocide and regional wars. This concern prompts the U.S. administration to dissuade Israel from initiating a full-scale ground war, due to potential impacts on U.S. forces, national interests, and global reputation. Additionally, fears of post-invasion repercussions and the absence of a clear Israeli strategy, given Egypt and Jordan’s refusal to accept Palestinian civilians, exacerbate the situation.
Causes for Concern
An article from The Washington Post on October 27 revealed that President Joe Biden’s administration is encouraging Israel to reconsider its intentions for a comprehensive ground assault in Gaza. Instead, the administration advocates for a more restrained, accurate operation against Hamas in Gaza. This operation would involve the use of aircraft and special operations forces to execute exact, targeted strikes on high-value Hamas objectives and infrastructure, as per the information provided by five US officials privy to these deliberations. The most prominent goals that push the US administration to pressure Israel not to carry out a large-scale ground war in Gaza can be summarized to the following:
1- Fears that Israel will repeat the mistakes of the United States after the terrorist events of September: While the United States has openly endorsed Israel’s military actions against Hamas combatants in Gaza following the “Al-Aqsa Flood” operation, the U.S. President cautioned the Israeli government during his visit to Israel on October 18. He advised against a reactionary response similar to that of the United States post the September 11 terrorist attacks, which led to the initiation of conflicts against the Taliban and Al-Qaeda in Afghanistan in 2001, and the subsequent invasion of Iraq in 2003. These military interventions were largely deemed unsuccessful as they failed to accomplish the intended outcomes. Given this historical context, a number of US strategists are skeptical about the prospect of a full-scale ground invasion of Gaza by Israel, despite the absence of explicit opposition from President Biden and his administration.
2- Increased intensity of Palestinian resistance to Israel: The potential for an Israeli ground incursion into Gaza raises concerns of significant civilian casualties, which some argue could amount to a “genocide” of the local population. This is due to the reported targeting of shelters for displaced Palestinians, ostensibly under the claim that Hamas is constructing subterranean passages beneath these structures, resulting in substantial loss of civilian life. Such actions are likely to exacerbate hostility among the Palestinian populace and could potentially catalyze larger resistance movements. These movements may emerge not only within Gaza but also in other areas within the Palestinian territories and beyond. This escalation could lead to an increased frequency of attacks against Israel and contribute to destabilizing the Middle East region. Consequently, during his visit to Israel, President Biden underscored the US’s stance on resolving the Palestinian-Israeli conflict through the implementation of a two-state solution.
3- Giving priority to negotiations with Hamas: A plausible explanation for the United States administration’s insistence on Israel refraining from a full-scale ground incursion into Gaza might be its intent to empower regional allies, namely Egypt and Qatar. These nations are currently involved in negotiations with the Hamas movement concerning the liberation of captives in the movement’s possession after its “Al-Aqsa Flood” operations on October 7th. This is particularly relevant in the case of detainees possessing both Israeli and American nationalities, especially following the release of four female captives by the movement.
4- Delivering humanitarian aid to Gaza: Global entities, inclusive of the United States, are facing scrutiny for their perceived lack of exertion of influence on Israel to bolster support for Palestinian civilians. In response to this, the U.S. administration disclosed a commitment of $100 million in aid to the Palestinians, coinciding with President Biden’s diplomatic visit to Israel. Concurrently, the U.S. is advocating for Israel to permit an increased number of trucks to enter the Strip, with the objective of augmenting civilian support. U.S. intelligence suggests that there is an ongoing effort to persuade Israel to delay a comprehensive ground invasion, thereby facilitating the delivery of humanitarian aid. This comes in the aftermath of Israeli strikes that have severely impacted critical infrastructure within Gaza, including sewage and water networks, as well as medical facilities. The Palestinian health sector has declared an inability to continue providing services to the injured and wounded, consequent to the bombardment.
5- The ambiguity of the Israeli post-war vision: Nations within the specified region, particularly Egypt and Jordan, have unequivocally denounced the forced relocation of Palestinian inhabitants in Gaza to their territories until Israel accomplishes its alleged objective of dismantling the Hamas movement. This stance was emphatically articulated by King Abdullah II and further elucidated by Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi, who stated that Egypt firmly rejects the “resolution of the Palestinian matter” in such a manner. This signifies that regional nations, especially those playing a crucial role in the Palestinian issue, do not endorse the Israeli and US perspectives on resolving the matter. Consequently, Israel’s extensive terrestrial incursion implies an escalation devoid of a subsequent de-escalation strategy, thereby augmenting the likelihood of an unwanted regional conflict and its subsequent repercussions.
6- Fear that the Israeli war will expand into a regional war: The prevailing apprehension in the United States posits that the extensive Israeli terrestrial incursion into Gaza may precipitate a broader conflict within the Middle East. This concern is further exacerbated by the potential involvement of Iran’s military proxies in the region, particularly following the declaration by the Houthi militia in late October of their engagement in the conflict against Israel. This involvement is evidenced by their missile launches aimed at Israel, ostensibly in support of the resistance efforts spearheaded by the Hamas movement. Concurrently, the Lebanese Hezbollah has initiated retaliatory strikes in response to Israeli offensives on Lebanese soil. Should this situation escalate, it could indeed plunge the region into a widespread conflict. Notably, the trajectory of the Houthi-fired missiles traverses the Red Sea, posing a significant threat to maritime routes, particularly in the vicinity of the Bab al-Mandab Strait. The escalation of conflict within Gaza will inevitably compel regional nations, whose interests are jeopardized, to safeguard transit through the corridor and protect their essential interests, particularly those pertaining to energy. The conflict has induced instability in the natural gas supply within certain regional countries, thereby inciting societal unrest. Consequently, the perpetuation of warfare within the Strip, coupled with the persistent targeting of civilians in Seger, will result in severe repercussions for all involved entities, inclusive of the US.
US losses
Israel’s implementation for a comprehensive ground invasion of Gaza to eliminate Hamas will have many negative repercussions for the US, the most prominent of which are the following:
1- Increased armed attacks against US targets: The US administration fears that the Israeli ground invasion of Gaza may push pro-Iranian militias in the region to target US military bases in Iraq and Syria. During October, US military bases in Iraq and Syria were subjected to attacks by pro-Iranian militias using drones. The Pentagon spokesperson, General Patrick Ryder, said that US forces in Iraq and Syria were subjected to 27 attacks last October.
2- Biden’s loss of votes of Arab and Muslim Americans: US opinion polls indicate that Biden lost the votes of Arab and Muslim citizens, as well as progressive Democrats, after the great unwavering US support for Israel during the ongoing war, which caused the deaths of thousands of Palestinian civilians. Voters believe that the US administration did not follow a balanced policy towards this issue and that it contributed to exacerbating the conflict through unconditional support for Israel, in addition to its failure to stop the escalation.
A poll conducted by the Arab American Institute, which included 500 Arab Americans from October 23 to 27, revealed that support for President Biden among Arab American voters has declined sharply since the war between Israel and Hamas, to unprecedented levels. Support for his upcoming re-election from Arab Americans fell by 42%, from 59% in 2020 to 17%. The poll showed that if the elections were held today, 40% said they would vote for former President Trump, the most likely candidate to win the Republican Party ticket in the upcoming presidential elections. In 2020, 35% of those surveyed said they would vote for him. The poll also showed that 23% of Arab Americans consider themselves Democrats, which represents a 17% decline since April.
3- The decline of US influence and image in the Middle East: Arab hostility towards the US in the region is increasing in the wake of its unwavering support for Israel, which would affect US interests and goals in the region. These interests have, since the Russian – Ukrainian war, become a priority for the US administration as they have come under contention with China and Russia. The repercussions of the Israeli ground invasion will have adverse effects on the US’s relations with many of its allies in the region.
4- Increasing Competition with the US: The United States’ influence and prestige within the Middle Eastern region appears to be diminishing, concurrently with a rise in Palestinian fatalities attributed to Israeli military operations. This trend is projected to escalate, should Israeli forces proceed with a large-scale terrestrial incursion into Gaza. Conversely, the stature and image of rival entities are experiencing an upsurge. The United States is demonstrating heightened activity within the region, underscored by its recurrent appeals for a ceasefire, the imperative of facilitating humanitarian aid to the Palestinians in Gaza who are bereft of basic life necessities, and its endeavors to mediate the crisis that could potentially plunge the region into a conflict of regional proportions. The repercussions of such a conflict would not be confined to the Middle East, but would also extend to the global community, which is yet to recover from the impacts of the Russian military aggression against Ukraine.
5- Increasing pressure from the progressive movement on President Biden: The escalating mortality rate among Palestinians, precipitated by the Israeli terrestrial incursion into Gaza, coupled with the subsequent displacement of Palestinian inhabitants, is anticipated to catalyze the progressive faction within the Democratic Party. This group contests the U.S. administration’s unwavering support for Israel following the “Al-Aqsa Flood” operation. Consequently, this faction is expected to exert augmented pressure on the U.S. administration to recalibrate its stance on the crisis. This scenario poses a significant challenge for the incumbent US president, who is endeavoring to consolidate the Democratic Party’s support as he vies for re-election in the forthcoming presidential race scheduled for November next year. This unity is particularly crucial given the current fragmentation within the Republican Party, which potentially jeopardizes its electoral prospects. The diminished focus on the Ukrainian crisis is another noteworthy point. The U.S. administration had prioritized preventing a Russian victory in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict.
In preparation for his forthcoming electoral campaign, Biden intends to capitalize on his successes, despite numerous failures in domestic priorities. As the Israeli conflict with Gaza escalates, global focus is expected to pivot towards the ensuing humanitarian crises. This shift will likely divert the US administration’s attention towards managing the fallout, consequently diminishing their focus on the Ukrainian crisis. This situation could potentially be leveraged by Russia to bolster its military stance, particularly in light of growing US resistance to ongoing support for Kyiv.
Multiple losses
The initiation of a terrestrial incursion into Gaza by the Israeli military is anticipated to precipitate adverse consequences for both the United States and Israel. These ramifications are expected to be multifaceted and multilayered, particularly impairing the global perception of the US. Furthermore, this action may inadvertently bolster the US’ rivals by enabling them to garner support from regional nations, further diminishing the US’s hegemony within the Middle East.