On the 25th of October, 2023, the esteemed Arab World Center for Advanced Research and Studies, situated in Cairo, orchestrated a scholarly discourse, aptly titled “Complex Scenarios: What are the possible outcomes of the Israeli war on Gaza after the Al-Aqsa flood Operation?” The center had the privilege of hosting Mr. Nabil Amr, the former Palestinian Minister of Information, who graced the event as the keynote speaker. The discourse was further enriched by the participation of an array of experts and scholars from diverse disciplines. The distinguished participants included Mr. Muhammad Ezz Al-Arab, Mr. Muhammad Abbas Naji, Mr. Amr Abdel Ati, Professor Muhammad Al-Faqi, Mr. Karam Saeed, Mr. Hamdi Bashir, Mr. Hussein Maaloum, Mr. Haitham Omran, and Mr. Muhammad Omar. The session attempted to explore the ramifications of escalating tensions.
Amr highlighted some of the consequences ensuing from the Israeli military engagement in the Gaza, after operation “Al-Aqsa Flood”, the most prominent of which included:
1- A large-scale and sudden military operation: The operation orchestrated by Hamas was marked by an element of surprise, both to its executors and the global community. It was unforeseen that the incursion undertaken by Hamas would culminate in such outcomes, particularly regarding the mortality rate, prisoner count, and the duration of internal conflicts within Israel. This phenomenon had been previously observed during Operation Beach, albeit to a lesser extent in terms of the resultant consequences.
2- Revealing displacement plans: The procedure did not elicit vehement responses, yet Israel disclosed extensive strategies, instigating the topic of displacement. The erstwhile Deputy Foreign Minister alluded to it, implicating Egypt and Jordan, via the aspiration for Palestinians to traverse the border into Sinai, subsequently assuming the financial implications. This notion surfaced concurrent with the onset of Israeli military engagement.
This insinuates that the proposal was initially introduced as an apprehension, to disperse the Palestinians within the context of regional settlements. The recent conflict unveiled objectives surpassing the immediate occurrences, advocating for a demographic shift. Inhabitants of the Gaza Strip migrated to Sinai during one of the Israeli operations, however, they subsequently returned.
3- The Arab peace with Israel is fragile: The outcomes of the operation have underscored the precarious nature of peace with Israel, now seemingly more tenuous than in previous times. Amid the peace process, a new proposal has surfaced, notably concerning the issue of displacement. This raises the critical question: What is the current state of the peace process? The discourse in Egypt has notably shifted. Displacement is no longer perceived as a mere outcome, nor is it confined within the parameters of intimidation.
The Palestinian issue has evolved beyond a simple matter of solidarity. It has now become a matter of national security for regional countries, particularly within the context of displacement plans and the prevailing circumstances.
4- Focus on the absence of a political solution to the Palestinian issue: The recent altercation instigated by Hamas and the subsequent Israeli retaliation has underscored the global imperative of devising a tangible political resolution to the Palestinian quandary. Absent a solution that appeases both Palestinians and Arabs, the region is doomed to perpetually oscillate between bouts of warfare.
The root cause of these conflicts is the persistent failure to establish a political resolution that caters to the needs of Palestinians and Arabs. This proposition is now being advanced with renewed vigor, and even those who advocate for Israel cannot deny the necessity of a political solution predicated on the two-state paradigm. This is the sole viable alternative, rather than the current state of affairs, which periodically precipitates volatile situations in Palestine, rendering any contrary trends meaningless.
Contrary to the Gaza Strip, the West Bank, devoid of missiles or weaponry, has been under Israeli military occupation for numerous years. The Israeli forces, armed with Apaches, routinely invade the camps and deploy additional troops to counter a mere handful of combatants.
5- The Palestinian issue is the greatest challenge to Israel: The media often prioritizes the discussion of militaristic prowess, technological supremacy, and lethal force, which we subsequently elevate and lament to the global community and settlements. It is imperative to adopt an unbiased perspective on the internal dynamics of Israel, and the outcomes produced by the Palestinian issue. The Israeli Strategic Institute identifies four primary challenges confronting Israel, with the absence of a political resolution to the Palestinian issue being paramount. This absence perpetually preoccupies Israel, initially with addressing the situation in Gaza, followed by the West Bank, without proposing any political solutions to the Palestinian issue. The internal situation ranks second, indicating that Iran does not pose the most significant challenge.
The internal dynamics of the Palestinian issue have precipitated an increasing number of individuals who posit that the subjugation of one populace by another engenders significant complications for Israel. The escalating internal schism has culminated in a threat to the foundational principles of the state, particularly in light of the burgeoning influence of the extreme right, which is effectuating a radical transformation within Israel.
6- Crystallizing an Arab position for a political solution: Israel’s deviation from a political resolution has engendered significant repercussions, underscored by the inefficacy of the Cairo Peace Conference. Rather than serving as a platform for initiating negotiations and marshaling aid, the conference merely marked the inception of a political solution that necessitates further development. The onus of resolving the Palestinian issue should no longer rest solely on the shoulders of US and Europe. The current Arab predicament, precipitated by the events in Gaza, necessitates the pursuit of a novel political trajectory that surpasses in fairness and efficacy all preceding propositions.
7- The Impotence of US and Israeli Policies: The ongoing process of normalization between Arab nations and Israel precipitates a fundamental issue, namely the political impotence of US and Israel. It raises the question of how one can pursue peace with Sudan while disregarding the subjugation of seven million Palestinians, who align with your cause and reject Israel, using economic incentives as leverage. Within Israel, the sentiment has begun to circulate that as long as Israel continues to occupy another nation, it will remain in a state of perpetual crisis.
This predicament has given rise to a Western stance that has embraced the Israeli narrative, despite cognizance of its fallacious nature. Even the French president has made statements unbecoming of a head of state, proposing the formation of an international coalition to eradicate Hamas, mirroring the approach taken with ISIS.
Complex paths
Amr concedes that the trajectories of warfare are intricately complex and defy precise prediction, yet certain determinants have emerged concomitant with the inception of the Israeli conflict in the Gaza Strip, which warrant highlighting:
1- The US aspiration for reestablishing Israel’s allegiance to the “House of Obedience”: The United States, via its military aid to Israel, sought to realign the Israeli administration with the US House of Obedience, following a series of dissenting actions. This encompasses the intrusion into the Sino-Israeli relationship, which precipitated a visit by the erstwhile Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, to Israel, cautioning against a port management agreement with China. Nevertheless, there exist multi-billion dollar projects between the two nations, a reality that fails to appease the US.
The United States formally solicited Israel’s involvement in the Ukrainian conflict, a request that was declined due to the proximity of Russian forces to Israel’s borders. This refusal prompted US intervention, culminating in the barring of Netanyahu from the White House.
There exists a palpable apprehension within US circles regarding the potential fragmentation of the Israeli military, a concern that predates the current conflict. This fear was exacerbated by the abstention of aviation officers from training exercises, their allegiance shifting to the popular movement in response to the judicial crisis.
The prevailing circumstances necessitate the active engagement of the US administration, under the pretense of endorsement. Ultimately, the United States wields significant influence over Israeli political decisions, possessing unbridled autonomy in matters concerning Gaza and Hamas.
2- The United States’ strategic aversion to a potential regional conflict: The provision of US military aid to Israel is partially predicated on the prospect of escalating into a broader regional conflict, a scenario the United States seeks to avoid. Concurrently, the United States aims to convey to the Israeli populace that their safety is ensured by the presence of two US aircraft carriers and the expertise of US military strategists orchestrating the operations.
Significantly, for the first time in recorded history, President Biden and Secretary Blinken were present in the command centers that direct military action, underscoring US’s primary focus on military and security services. The US’s support is directed toward the Israeli state rather than its successive governments, reflecting its strategic importance to US interests in the Middle East. This support is particularly evident during times of peril, as demonstrated during the October War.
The US harbors no desire for a regional conflict in the Middle East, instead concentrating its efforts on addressing the issue of Hamas. This organization is perceived as the primary disruptor of the normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel. Prior to this disruption, discussions had progressed to an advanced stage.
The timing of the operation, irrespective of Iran’s involvement, is interpreted as a setback to the US-led initiative for normalization. However, this setback does not signify the end of the process, rather, that negotiations could recommence following the conclusion of the operation in Gaza.
3- Contention persists within Israel regarding the conduct of the war: The Israeli Defense Minister, Gallant, expressed an inclination towards initiating a pre-emptive military campaign against the Gaza Strip. This proposed action forms part of a broader operation targeting Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, and the northern front in Syria. Israeli forces have repeatedly targeted Syrian airports, a region under the control of Iranian militias.
4- The proposition to strangle Gaza, igniting a territorial conflict, has intensified: The Israeli aspiration to start a ground offensive in in Gaza has been met with uncertainty regarding its outcomes, not only by the US but also by Israel itself. The primary deterrent to this territorial conflict thus far has been the US, considering the anticipated casualties of such an action.
On the other hand, a new proposition has been presented to Netanyahu by a former military officer. This proposition advocates for the strangling and annihilation of Gaza without resorting to a ground operation or the deployment of a single soldier, instead utilizing aerial bombardment. It is acknowledged that a ground conflict would inevitably result in casualties.
However, the strategy of strangling Gaza and confining it within a 50 km radius, simultaneously besieging it by sea, air, and land, would likely prolong the conflict and exacerbate the casualty toll.
5- Israel’s aspiration to reestablish faith in its military apparatus is evident: The northern Gaza Strip, currently devoid of inhabitants, could potentially serve as a strategic point for cautious ground incursions, as opposed to a full-scale occupation of Gaza, considering the anticipated casualties.
At the martial level, there is an urgent need within the Israeli Defense Forces to resurrect its image of invincibility. This is a significant crisis within Israel’s societal fabric, as there is a pressing need to project a victorious image to bolster the morale of its citizenry.
Post-conflict committees will inevitably be established to scrutinize fundamental deficiencies. However, the attainment of victory and retribution is the top priority for Israel. This strategy is an endeavor to reinstate the Israeli citizen’s trust in their military institution, particularly in the face of substantial losses and the capture of high-ranking officers.
Sensing Danger
The former Palestinian Minister of Information comments that the sole advantage of this situation is the Arab community’s heightened awareness of the peril from Israel. The notion of peace with Israel has ceased to serve as a strategic safeguard. While there may be political normalization and dialogues concerning gas, security, and other matters, the Arab populace recognizes that the scenario is considerably more complex than merely depending on accords to assure national security. Particularly, as discussions about the economy and economic corridors necessitate tranquility, the Cairo Peace Conference symbolizes the inception of the journey toward a political resolution.