The Biden administration has set its sights on imposing restrictions on the export and import of military equipment to Iran. This decision can be comprehended within the framework of several factors. Firstly, there is an impending deadline for lifting UN sanctions on missiles and drones. Secondly, Iran is actively engaged in bolstering its military capabilities. Thirdly, there is an increasing trend of military cooperation between Iran, Russia, and Tajikistan. Lastly, there exists widespread domestic criticism of the US administration’s approach to Iran.
The Biden administration maintains its unwavering commitment to enforcing further measures to restrict Iran’s capacity for advancing its military capabilities. Specifically, the focus is on drones, ballistic missiles, and fighter aircraft. These endeavors occur in the midst of escalated tensions between the United States and Iran. These tensions arise from the unresolved crisis surrounding the Iranian nuclear agreement, Iran’s provision of military support to Russia in the Ukraine conflict, and the continuous attacks against US interests in the Middle East region.
On April 20th of the preceding year, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken made a statement affirming the United States’ commitment to obstruct Iran’s endeavors to enter the global arms market. This stance was motivated by the alleged actions of Iran in destabilizing the region. The statement was a direct response to the imposition of a new set of sanctions by the United States on the previous day. These sanctions specifically targeted various international companies that were accused of assisting Iran in obtaining equipment associated with its drone program.
Multiple considerations
The inclination of Washington to declare its commitment to impede Iran’s military capabilities can be understood by considering various factors, with the most significant ones being:
- The Impending Conclusion of the UN Embargo on Iran’s Ballistic Missile Program: The UN embargo on Iran’s ballistic missile program, outlined in Security Council Resolution 2231, is drawing close to its expiration. This resolution prohibits the transfer or receipt of ballistic missiles or unmanned aerial vehicles surpassing a range of 300 kilometers and a payload capacity exceeding 500 kilograms. According to the resolution, this restriction is set to be lifted on October 18, 2023, marking eight years since the adoption of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, commonly referred to as the “nuclear agreement,” on October 18, 2015.
According to multiple reports, Iran has been careful not to supply Russia with drones surpassing a range of 300 kilometers. This precautionary measure is taken to avoid violating the Security Council resolution, as doing so could trigger the activation of the “snapback” mechanism by Western nations. This mechanism would automatically reinstate international sanctions that were previously lifted following the signing of the nuclear agreement on July 14, 2015.
Despite Ukraine’s previous appeals for action from Western nations, it has struggled to make substantial advancements in this regard. This can be attributed to Iran’s skillful exploitation of what can be described as loopholes within the nuclear agreement, coupled with the Western countries’ reluctance to escalate the risk of the agreement collapsing and potentially leading to a new military conflict in the Middle East.
- Iran’s Emphasis on Enhancing Drone Capabilities: Iran has dedicated significant resources to advancing its drone capabilities in recent years. Reports indicate that on February 5th of the prior year, Iran entered into an agreement with Russia to establish a drone factory within Russian territory. This facility is projected to have the capacity to manufacture thousands of drones annually. Additionally, on May 17th of the previous year, Iran inaugurated a drone production plant in Tajikistan specifically for the “Ababil-2” drones. The event was graced by the presence of Mohammad Bagheri, the Chief of Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces, and Shir Ali Mirza, the Tajik Defense Minister, underscoring the deepening military cooperation between the two nations.
This signifies that Iran has initiated preparations to export its drones to neighboring countries, particularly Russia and various Central Asian nations. In order to accomplish this objective, Iran is currently making arrangements to have the sanctions imposed on it lifted on October 18. On October 18, 2022, Yahya Rahim Safavi, the military adviser to the Supreme Leader of the Republic, revealed that 22 countries, including Armenia, Algeria, Serbia, and Tajikistan, had submitted requests to Iran for the procurement of drones. It is noteworthy that Safavi made this statement on October 18, which coincides with the date of the adoption of the nuclear agreement and the lifting of sanctions related to missiles and drones.
- Boosting the Drone Capabilities of the Iranian Army: The Iranian army has recently achieved noteworthy advancements in strengthening its military capabilities, overcoming previous limitations imposed by objections from the Revolutionary Guard and the regime’s emphasis on enhancing the latter’s capabilities. On April 20th, the Iranian army declared its forthcoming acquisition of over 200 advanced unmanned aerial vehicles, equipped with missile capabilities and cutting-edge electronic warfare systems. These drones are specifically designed for reconnaissance and attack missions, and are outfitted to carry air-to-air and air-to-ground missiles, as well as long-range bombs.
The advancement of the Iranian army’s capabilities and the deepening military collaboration with certain nations carry substantial implications. It is crucial to acknowledge that the army spearheads cooperative endeavors, in contrast to the Revolutionary Guard, which primarily focuses on overseeing external operations through the establishment and training of militias in conflict zones. The army has assumed a pivotal role in fostering military ties with Russia and Tajikistan through the establishment of drone production facilities in both countries.
- Persistent Targeting of US Interests in the Region: The commitment expressed by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken directly stems from the recurring assaults on US interests in Iraq and Syria by Iranian-backed militias. The most recent attack transpired on April 9, targeting a US base in northern Syria. While the perpetrator of this attack, as well as previous incidents, remains unconfirmed, the United States has consistently leveled direct and indirect accusations against Iran, holding it responsible. These allegations are grounded in claims that Iran has provided tacit approval to its allied militias for conducting such assaults.
- The Biden administration, which declared President Biden’s candidacy for the upcoming elections on April 25th, is confronted with substantial domestic criticism and pressure from both the Republican and Democratic parties. This campaign has been fueled by various factors, including the administration’s perceived inability to effectively mitigate the challenges posed by Iran’s regional, military, and nuclear pursuits. Despite engaging in negotiations in Vienna since April 2021 to achieve a new nuclear agreement, which encountered a standstill in August 2022, Iran has shown no inclination to yield to the pressures for policy changes.
The present administration aims to establish that it possesses viable options to limit Iran’s nuclear and regional aspirations, or at the very least, diminish the extent of the threat Iran poses to American interests in the region.
Dual Messages
In conclusion, these factors are likely to prompt the US administration to adopt more punitive measures in the near future. These actions intend to convey a dual message to both Iran and the American public. The first message emphasizes that Iran’s current hardline policies will elicit increased pressure and sanctions from the United States. The second message aims to garner greater domestic support for the administration’s policies as President Biden seeks to secure a second term in the 2024 presidential election.