US sorties by B-52 bombers over the Middle East are directly related to escalating tensions with Iran. The US is seeking to dissuade Iran from attacking US and Saudi Arabia targets, and to underscore US warnings that military force remains an option should Iran nuclear negotiations fail.
The sortie was announced on November 11, by General Michael Corella. The statement by US Central Command stated that the US military conducted a sortie by B-52 strategic bombers in cooperation with 13 partner countries in the Middle East. The statement added that this sortie “demonstrates the United States’ commitment to regional security and the collective capabilities of military partners in the region.” This is not the first sortie of its kind, but it has special significance as it coincides with the escalation of tension with Iran.
Multiple Goals
By taking this step, the US seeks to achieve several objectives, most notably:
Warning Iran off targeting US interests: Washington does not rule out that Iran could target US interests in order to raise the cost of sanctions and pressures imposed by Washington. The US has also indicated it is at present awarding less priority to reaching a nuclear agreement with Iran, as it concentrates on mobilizing the west against Iran for its military support for Russia in the war against Ukraine, and providing it with Witness 136 and Mohajer-6 drones.
Moreover, some in the US view the killing of an American teacher in Iraq on November 7 as an indication that Iran is already moving to resume targeting American interests.
It is noteworthy that the “Saraya Ahl Al-Kahf” militia which claimed responsibility for the killing stated that his death was in retaliation for the killing of Revolutionary Guards Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani, accompanied by Deputy Secretary General of the PMF Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis on 3 January 2020, in a military operation ordered by former US President Donald Trump.
Showcasing US coordination with regional allies: The US was keen to highlight that the sortie was carried out with 13 partner countries in the Middle East, as proof of the successful implementation of the goals of US President Joe Biden’s tour in the Middle East in July. The tour concluded with the Jeddah Summit on Security and Development, that highlighted the need to enhance coordination between Washington and its allies in the region to confront common threats, in particular those posed by Iran’s nuclear and regional ambitions.
Iran has recently downplayed the success of the summit, pointing to US displeasure over OPEC+’s decision on 5 October to reduce the oil production ceiling by 2 million barrels per day. Iran interpreted this decision as an indication that President Biden’s visit did not achieve its primary objective of persuading GCC countries to pump more energy supplies into the international market to reduce pressure from the Russian-Ukrainian war.
Support for Saudi Arabia: It is notable that the sortie followed the escalation of Iran’s threats to Saudi Arabia, with accusations that the latter is supporting domestic protests, especially through ongoing media coverage. Tehran claims that Saudi Arabia was funding the Iran International channel that authorities believe has fueled the protests and reduced the ability of the security apparatus to contain them, leading to the continuation of the protests into their second month by mid-November.
Iran has allowed its military officials to direct threatening messages to Saudi Arabia, such as statements by Revolutionary Guard Commander Hussein Salami. These have also been similar messages from the mainstream media, especially Iran’s main newspaper Kayhan, which carries a number of articles arguing that if Saudi Arabia insists it does not support the protests, Iran will in turn insist that it has no connection with any attack against Saudi interests.
Washington appears to be sending a message that despite occasional disagreements with its regional allies, including Riyadh, this will not translate into an abandonment by the US of its strategic commitments to these allies. The demonstration of this commitment appears necessary as Washington’s regional allies look to expand their international options, maintaining relations with Russia, adopting a more balanced policy towards the Russian-Ukrainian war, as well as developing relations with China. There are plans for three summits in the near future: a Chinese-Saudi summit, another between China and the Arab Gulf states, and a third Chinese-Arab summit.
Increasing pressure following stalled negotiations: Washington has been indicating it would consider other alternative, including the military option, to deal with Iran’s nuclear threats, in the case of failure to reach a negotiated agreement. There have been ongoing disagreements between Iran and the US on some of the key issues in the Vienna negotiations, and last October, US envoy to Iran, Robert Mali, said that the US would consider using military force if the parties involved failed to reach a settlement. He stressed that Iran’s possession of a nuclear weapon will make the entire world unsafe and would threaten the security of the United States.
This has also coincided with the differences between Iran and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which announced, on November 11, that its contacts with Iran have so far yielded little results, particularly on receiving Iran’s responses to questions regarding finding uranium traces at three of Iran’s undeclared sites.
It is therefore possible that the US could take further escalatory measures against Iran, which would not be restricted to imposing further sanctions, but could also include military strikes against armed militias that may be expected to target US interests. The key message in this respect is that if Iran continues stalling to gain time in developing its nuclear capabilities, the cost will be high. This will be especially true if Iran seeks to exact a cost for what it perceives as Washington’s support for the current domestic protests, as it continues to deny their real causes , and to assert they are the result of foreign plans to undermine the Iranian regime with the support of some domestic elements.