Somalia’s decision to align itself with the group of East African nations stems from multifaceted considerations, including security, economic, and political imperatives. The urgency arises from Somalia’s pressing need for military support and collaborative security efforts in the ongoing battle against terrorism. Notably, the gradual withdrawal of the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) since June of the preceding year has instilled concerns within Somalia about the potential emergence of a security vacuum ripe for exploitation by terrorist organizations.

Furthermore, economic exigencies underpin Somalia’s decision to integrate into the common economic market. This strategic move aims to boost exports, revitalize infrastructure across various sectors, attract foreign investments, and fortify Somalia’s standing as a pivotal actor in addressing regional challenges.

Formally, on November 24th of the current year, Somalia officially declared its accession as the eighth member of the East African Community. This pivotal decision was ratified during the 23rd regular summit of heads of state convened in Arusha, Tanzania, on the same day. The approval followed nearly a year of fruitful negotiations. In light of these developments, questions naturally arise regarding Somalia’s underlying motivations for seeking membership in the organization.

Multiple Motivations

Somalia initially expressed its desire to become a member of the East African Community in 2012. However, its request was declined due to internal challenges, including issues with the Al-Shabaab movement, and the absence of a stable legal-political environment during that period. Consequently, several factors have now converged to prompt Somalia to join the bloc at this juncture:

1. Addressing Security Threats, Especially from Terrorist Organizations: In statements made in July of the previous year, Somalia’s Minister of Defense, Abdulqadir Mohamed Nur Jama, underscored the critical importance of Somalia joining the East African Standby Force (ESAF). Jama urged the People’s Council to approve the treaty facilitating the country’s entry into the bloc. He clarified that Somalia’s participation in ESAF is an urgent necessity, driven by the evolving international defense landscape and the imperative for cooperation in the face of escalating security threats globally, regionally, and domestically. Jama affirmed that this treaty would enable the military assistance required to combat terrorism emanating from the region’s countries.

Experts highlight Somalia’s imperative for security cooperation with the member countries of the group, particularly given the growing concerns surrounding the gradual withdrawal of the African Union peacekeeping force (AMISOM) from the country. There is a shared apprehension that this withdrawal could potentially create a security vacuum, providing an opportunity for terrorist organizations to exploit and regain control of vulnerable areas in Somalia.

2. Investment Inflow into Various Sectors: Somalia’s integration into this bloc amplifies access to the East African economic market, projecting a surge in investments across diverse sectors within Somalia. Anticipated areas of investment include infrastructure, facilities, agriculture, fishing, and the development of road networks linking Somalia with neighboring countries. Analysts posit that this membership will afford Somali entrepreneurs the liberty of movement, fostering access to untapped markets. Furthermore, experts contend that Somalia’s inclusion in this bloc will stimulate opportunities for heightened exports, bilateral trade, streamlined goods and services flow, and bolstered local production.

Some analysts envision substantial gains for Somalia through this membership, particularly in the execution of pivotal infrastructure projects encompassing road construction, railways, energy initiatives, telecommunication enhancements, and the overall stimulation of economic growth. Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has explicitly affirmed that Somalia’s accession to the East African Community serves to legitimize the assets held by Somalis in member countries.

3. Exercising a Larger Political Role on the Regional Stage: The heightened interest of Somalia in aligning with this bloc aligns with the presidency of Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, who is focused on internal reconciliation and enhancing Somalia’s influence on the regional stage. Against this backdrop, experts highlight Somalia’s renewed aspirations to join this bloc, drawing parallels with the acceptance of troubled South Sudan in 2016 and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, grappling with internal conflicts, in 2022.

With the return of President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, who initially sought East African Community membership during his first term in 2012, Somalia has recommitted to joining the bloc. A verification mission was dispatched in January of the current year (2023) to assess Somalia’s preparedness for membership. In August of the preceding year, Somali officials engaged in negotiations with East African Community representatives, leading to the formulation of a comprehensive report. This report was subsequently submitted to the Council of Ministers before being forwarded to the summit of heads of state.

Major Challenges

Despite the opportunities and potential benefits that Somalia could gain from joining the East African Community, it faces several significant challenges. Among these challenges are:

1. Growing Security Threats and Vulnerability of Geographic Borders: Somalia continues to grapple with insecurity, particularly in light of the escalating activities of terrorist groups, notably Al-Shabaab. These activities pose tangible threats to development initiatives, investment endeavors, and trade within both Somalia and the broader region. Consequently, Somalia’s entry into the organization raises concerns about potential security threats, as it might provide these terrorist elements with greater freedom of movement across Somali borders.

2. Federal Fragility and Tendency for Secession by Somali States: Somalia’s journey towards accession to the East African Community faces obstacles due to federal fragility and the proclivity for secession by certain Somali states. States like Somaliland persist in resisting bloc membership, reflecting the broader challenges within Somalia’s federal structure and the prevailing regional inclination for secession.

Some experts contend that Somalia’s decision to join the East African Community appears hasty. They argue that the Somali government should have prioritized internal reconciliation, implementing political and structural reforms to establish political stability before embarking on the path to joining this bloc.

3. Lack of Economic Readiness for Joining the East African Market: According to some experts, the principal aim of establishing the East African Community is rooted in economic and trade considerations. Consequently, they posit that Somalia may not derive substantial benefits from its current accession to this bloc due to prevailing economic conditions. Somalia lacks a diverse array of services and goods suitable for marketing within the common market. Furthermore, its limited capital contrasts with the investment expectations of each member state within the organization.

Critics argue that Somalia should have postponed its accession until achieving a more robust economic readiness. While the organization might have sought expansion, broader market access, and an enlarged coastline, the challenges confronting Somalia may outweigh the potential benefits of its membership in the group.

Promising Opportunities

Overall, Somalia stands to gain promising opportunities through its accession to the East African Community. Membership in the bloc offers extensive prospects for regional and economic integration, serving as a significant platform for trade and investment. Moreover, it is anticipated to generate employment, stimulate economic diversification, and elevate Somalia’s role as an active participant in East African affairs. Through adept diplomacy, Somalia can assume a more influential position in addressing regional challenges, including security issues and the resolution of local, national, and regional conflicts. Additionally, this membership strengthens opportunities for security cooperation, particularly in counterterrorism efforts.

Nevertheless, Somalia faces challenges that must be surmounted to fully capitalize on its East African Community membership. These challenges encompass achieving political stability and internal reconciliation, bolstering security measures, countering terrorism—especially from the Al-Shabaab movement—and optimizing the utilization of Somalia’s rich and diverse resources, including its expansive arable land. Strengthening self-reliance capabilities is also crucial to address worsening living conditions such as famine, displacement, and poverty.