A substantial portion of northern Syrian territories is now outside government control, resulting in a de facto division that is evident through several noticeable signs. Among these signs, the most prominent is the Turkish authority over transportation routes, administrative functions, and the provision of assistance to Syria. Additionally, Ankara has been making efforts to integrate these cantons into the Turkish administrative system.

There are several motivating factors behind these Turkish endeavors, which aim to reshape the geopolitical landscape along its southern borders. These efforts include connecting the economic activities of northern Syrian regions with southern Turkey and transforming the cantons into a new political system that aligns with Turkish objectives, particularly in countering the perceived “Kurdish threat.”

Numerous factors related to the Syrian conflict, which involves various regional and international powers, have played a significant role in dividing the northern borderlands into several “cantons” with varying degrees of autonomy. These cantons extend from west to east along the northern border, and four of them receive direct support from Turkey.

Prominent Indicators

Turkish attempts to divide northern Syria, especially its border regions, become evident through a set of indicators, the most important of which include the following:

1. Turkish Military Interventions in Northern Syria: Since 2016, the northern regions of Syria have experienced three direct Turkish military interventions. The initial operation was named “Operation Euphrates Shield,” followed by two subsequent military campaigns in 2018 and 2019. Through these significant military endeavors, Turkey successfully established three cantons: Euphrates Shield, Afrin, and Peace Spring, in northwestern Syria.

Even though Ankara extended its protective influence to a fourth region, Idlib, which is under the control of Syrian opposition forces, this alone wasn’t sufficient to ensure the continuous connection of these cantons to Turkey. As a result, Turkey sought to assert control not only by fostering economic ties between northern Syrian regions and southern Turkey but also by regulating the channels through which international aid enters Syrian territory via the Turkish borders.

2. Turkish Control of Humanitarian Aid: Ankara’s role in overseeing the distribution of aid sent to Syria has expanded in recent years, particularly following its direct military involvement in northern Syria. Turkey has emerged as the primary launch point for dispatching humanitarian assistance to Syria, primarily because the route of this aid has shifted to the Turkish border. This shift occurred due to the Syrian government’s refusal to allow aid and humanitarian assistance to reach areas held by the opposition in the north.

As a result of the Syrian regime’s refusal, Turkey has gained significant influence over the aid flow, primarily through the support provided to international non-governmental organizations involved in this field. This has transformed southern Turkey into a central hub for cross-border operations aimed at delivering aid to the interior of Syria, an initiative referred to as “Operation Zero Point.”

3. Challenges in Syrian Control of the Cantons: While the Syrian government and its armed forces represent the sole entity with the capability to expand their authority in certain regions of northern Syria, such an undertaking cannot be executed without prior consensus among all international and regional stakeholders, particularly Turkey, which extends its support to these areas, especially those housing the border cantons.

Any effort by the Syrian regime to assert control over one or more of these cantons could potentially trigger a military conflict or even a war involving the United States or Turkey. The United States backs the Syrian Democratic Forces in northeastern Syria, whereas Turkey is actively engaged in Operation Euphrates Shield, Afrin, Peace Spring, and even in Idlib, which is under the control of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham.

Motivating Factors

Ankara relies on several key factors to influence changes in the dynamics of public life within the Syrian regions under its military control, particularly the cantons in northern Syria. The most crucial of these factors include:

1. Integrating the Economic Activity of the Cantons with Turkey: Ankara aims to establish a tight connection between all aspects of economic activity in the border regions, including the cantons it has established in northern Syria, and the Turkish economy, thus extending its influence into Syria. With the Syrian regime losing its ability to effectively govern extensive territories in the northwest of the country, there has been a significant shift in economic and commercial activity towards Turkey.

Following the marginalization of Aleppo, which formerly served as the primary economic and administrative hub in the northwest of Syria, the border crossings with southern Turkey have become the primary conduits for interactions with the outside world, including the movement of people and the distribution of aid and humanitarian assistance. Consequently, southern Turkey has emerged as the primary source and channel for commercial activity, contributing to the emergence of a cross-border economy estimated to be worth billions of dollars.

2. Implementation of Turkish Administration in Northern Syria: Ankara is systematically pursuing changes in the economic and administrative facets of life within the regions of northern Syria under its control. As part of these initiatives, they have introduced a “civil registry” in the city of Idlib, which operates as an “official authority” overseeing various subsidiary departments across multiple areas. This institution is responsible for issuing most documents related to property, including real estate and agricultural holdings, as well as civil documents pertaining to civil relationships, such as birth, death, marriage, and other civil matters.

Of significance is the indication of Turkish intentions to sever the connections between the cantons in northern Syria and the rest of Syrian territories through a series of economic and administrative decisions. Each of these decisions serves to symbolically align these cantons with Turkey, a part of what has been termed the “Tetrik” policy. Furthermore, Ankara has established branches of Turkish universities in the northern Syrian regions and its cantons, starting in early 2021, with a particular focus on the province of Idlib, where instruction is conducted in the Turkish language.

3. Shaping a New Political Landscape in the Cantons: In addition to military initiatives, Ankara has taken active roles in diverse sectors, including humanitarian aid and efforts to establish a degree of stability within the cantons under its control. Alongside the establishment of branches of Turkish universities in the Idlib province, which now houses a medical college and six technical institutes, Ankara has designated the Turkish language as the “primary language” for students, discontinuing the instruction of Kurdish even in areas where Kurds constitute the majority.

Moreover, Turkey and its allies have been engaged in a process of renaming villages, towns, and streets, exemplified by the renaming of the central square in Afrin to “Atatürk Square.” This represents just one of many policies pursued by Turkey to transform the cantons into entities tightly linked to Turkey economically, administratively, and educationally. This forms part of Ankara’s endeavor to establish a new political reality in these regions, signifying the continued consolidation of the canton phenomenon along the Turkish-Syrian border in the foreseeable future.

Future Arrangements

In this context, it can be asserted that the canton phenomenon in northern Syria along the Turkish-Syrian border is likely to persist, at least in the foreseeable future. It is evident that Idlib, alongside the other three cantons, will continue to be under Turkish influence, along with the northeastern canton administered by the Kurds. The manifestation of this scenario on the ground is observable through Ankara’s Tetrik initiatives in these regions.

It is worth noting that Turkey regards more than four million Syrians residing in northern Syrian areas as migrants within its borders, in addition to another four million within Turkey’s interior. These two groups collectively account for approximately 8 million Syrians, constituting roughly one-third of Syria’s population. Turkey is actively seeking to integrate them into its policies and future decisions, with all the potential implications for the Syrian state.