Deteriorating humanitarian conditions on the ground in Arab conflict zones have come to dominate the attention of UN agencies, no less than the efforts to reach political settlements to bring these conflicts to an end. The need for emergency humanitarian assistance has become the leading reason various parties to these conflicts call for cease fires. It has become clear that even if political settlements to these conflicts are reached, that will not be sufficient to restore the region to stability. There is now a clear need to rescue millions of people who have been devastated by the conflicts, and therefore, a new consensus is emerging regarding the need to coordinate the efforts of the various UN agencies addressing these conflicts, despite their different mandates.

A generation in peril

 The latest UN reports from the field regarding these Arab conflicts reflect the scope of this humanitarian crisis. The latest UN report on Syria shows that well over half of the population, approximately 13.4 million people in various parts of the country, need some form of assistance. This indicates the scope of the challenges ahead and highlights the fact that de-escalation efforts have so far only partially addressed humanitarian needs. Moreover, these de-escalation measures have resulted in a wave of demographic displacement which exacerbates the humanitarian crisis. The UN has concluded that an entire generation is in peril, not because of participation in conflicts, but as a result of their aftereffects.

In Yemen, almost two-thirds of the total population, around 22 million persons, are currently suffering from severe shortages in basic commodities, while almost 5 million of them are on the brink of starvation. Yemen now tops the list as suffering from the worst humanitarian crisis in the world. While the country has undergone several conflicts in its modern history, it has never been in such a dire humanitarian situation before.  In Libya as well, although it has relatively more economic resources than other Arab countries undergoing conflicts, humanitarian conditions have deteriorated due to repeated waves of armed confrontation. There are areas in the south in need of urgent humanitarian assistance, and it is estimated that 70% of displaced persons and immigrants are also in need of such assistance.

The primacy of the humanitarian objective

There are several reasons why the Humanitarian dimension has come to dominate the discourse on dealing with conflicts zones in the Arab world:

1- Difficulty reaching political resolutions to the current conflicts: the longevity of the ongoing conflicts has created a state of despair and a failure to reach resolutions, despite repeated attempts to enforce a settlement on the ground. In Yemen, the Stockholm agreement was reached in 2019 and to this day has not been implemented. In Syria, several areas have witnessed flare-ups, as was the case in Deraa, although the agreement of 2018 stipulated providing services and aid and aimed to prevent further conflict. This illustrates that even when measures to end conflict begin to take effect, they do not resolve the conflict fully or deal with its consequences. The continuation of armed conflict has been a major factor in preventing humanitarian aid from arriving to those who need it in conflict zones.

2- The widespread consequences of humanitarian crises: Conflicts have led to the emergence of complicating factors, such as widespread displacement and migratory flows. These flows head to countries outside the region, such as European countries, which gives everyone an incentive to improve conditions in conflict zones in order to stem these flows. Thus, Europe is affording more attention to stopping migrants from reaching its shores than even to reaching political settlements of the conflicts themselves. Europe also fears “lone wolves” will find their way inside European countries among the waves of humanitarian refugees and pose a direct threat to their security.

3- The compounding effect of spreading disease: The Covid 19 Pandemic placed an even heavier burden on health systems in conflict zones, where parties refused to halt fighting despite this new stress, bringing health systems to a state of collapse. This compounded the need for humanitarian aid, to provide essential equipment, medication, and health care providers.

The situation in Arab conflict zones has led to a reevaluation of established measures of the return of peace and stability, putting the state of humanitarian conditions at the top of the list. In Deraa, for example, despite achieving a cease fire arrangement, the humanitarian situation is still worrying. In many cases, the immediate objective becomes reaching a ceasefire to allow for humanitarian assistance to break through to those that need it.

It is likely that the efforts of UN organizations will continue to be focused on the humanitarian dimension, especially as the parties to various conflicts do not seem to be interested in concluding agreements. Attention will therefore turn to the societies that have paid a high price for these conflicts, not only on the part of the UN, but also on the part of donor countries who wish to preempt the impact of these worsening conditions on their own societies.