On June 15th, Turkey initiated a new phase of military escalation in the regions under the control of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and Syrian forces in northwest Syria. This action was taken in response to the targeting of the Jabrin base in northern Syria and the police center in Kilis, located near the Tal Rifaat and Manbij areas on the Turkish border, on the same day. Consequently, tensions between Ankara and Damascus have intensified. Additionally, the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, classified as a terrorist organization by Turkey, has announced the termination of a unilateral ceasefire decision. This decision was initially made on February 6th of the previous year, which coincided with a seismic event affecting southern Turkey and northern Syria.

Noteworthy Timing

The ongoing Turkish offensive in the regions controlled by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and the Syrian army is closely tied to a series of significant recent developments in the Syrian conflict. Among these, the shelling of the Jabrin Turkish base and the police center in Kilis by the SDF on June 11th stands out, resulting in injuries to several Turkish soldiers. Prior to this incident, on April 16th, a missile strike targeted the “Kfar Jannah” base, where the Turkish army is stationed near the city of Azaz in northern Aleppo. It is therefore plausible that the attack on the SDF is, at least in part, a response to these actions carried out by SDF elements. Furthermore, it serves as a message that Turkey remains committed to its plans of containing Kurdish factions and militias.

Moreover, the Turkish army’s engagement with Syrian forces on June 15th was not an isolated incident during that period. On April 22nd, intense clashes involving heavy and medium weaponry occurred between the Syrian regime forces and elements of the “Syrian National Army,” which is loyal to Turkey.

Simultaneously, the Turkish offensive against the SDF and Syrian army units coincided with an announcement by Russian forces stationed in the Aleppo province of Syria in mid-June. The announcement declared the withdrawal of Russian troops from areas along the contact lines with Syrian opposition factions aligned with Turkey. This unexpected move, considering the Turkish-Russian understandings, could potentially exert pressure on the SDF forces.

Concurrently, this targeting takes place in the context of a decision made by the United States on June 12th to maintain its military presence east of the Euphrates River and reaffirm its ongoing support for the SDF in that region. This support was evident through the deployment of the advanced missile system “HIMARS” by the US army to the eastern side of the Euphrates. Thus, it is possible that Turkey sought to assert its capability to mitigate the consequences of American support for the Kurds through this attack.

Multiple Objectives

Tensions have resurfaced on the Syrian-Turkish border after a period of relative calm, which was imposed by Turkey’s focus on the legislative and presidential elections held on May 14th and 28th. Although this situation is not new, the escalation of tension this time is related to Ankara’s pursuit of multiple objectives, the most prominent of which include:

1.  Mitigating the Kurdish Threat: The recent Turkish assaults on SDF-controlled regions can be directly linked to Ankara’s apprehensions regarding Western support, particularly from the United States, for the SDF. Turkey is concerned that such backing might result in international recognition of the self-administration system established by the Kurdish Democratic Union Party in the eastern Euphrates areas. This recognition, in turn, has the potential to undermine Turkey’s endeavors to eradicate the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and its affiliated groups across the region. The recent Turkish attacks follow the United States’ announcement in early June, affirming the ongoing presence of its forces in eastern Syria and their ongoing cooperation and coordination with SDF elements in the fight against ISIS.

2. Anticipating the Astana Process Meeting: In the near future, there is a scheduled meeting in Astana involving the foreign ministers of Turkey, Iran, Russia, and Syria. This meeting serves as a regular gathering within the framework of resolving the Syrian crisis, where discussions on the dialogue process between Ankara and Damascus will take place. It appears that Turkey intends to preempt the Astana process in order to expand the scope of negotiations with countries opposed to Turkish military intervention in northern Syria. Turkey seeks to achieve this by highlighting the presence of terrorist organizations in northern Syria that pose a threat to its security and stability, thereby justifying the need for its ongoing military presence in the region. These attacks are intended to exert pressure on the Syrian regime, which insists on the complete withdrawal of Turkish forces from all Syrian territories before achieving full normalization between Damascus and Ankara.

3. Mobilizing Nationalists for Domestic Support: The Turkish military offensive targeting SDF-controlled regions can be viewed as a strategy employed by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to garner the backing of the Turkish nationalist bloc in the upcoming 2024 local elections. This is especially significant considering the instrumental role played by the nationalist movement in ensuring Erdogan’s victory in the presidential elections conducted in two rounds on May 14 and 28. Within Turkey, the nationalist movement strongly opposes the Kurdish cause and places great emphasis on military measures when confronting the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and its affiliated groups in northern Syria and Iraq.

4. Taking Concrete Measures for Refugee Repatriation: The Turkish military offensives in northern Syrian areas and targeting Syrian army bases are largely motivated by Turkey’s objective to exert pressure for the repatriation of Syrian refugees currently residing in Turkey. This objective gains particular significance due to Erdogan’s pre-election pledge to intensify efforts for the voluntary return of Syrian refugees. It is worth noting that Turkey has already initiated a project to construct around 240,000 houses in the border region of Jarablus, with the aim of accommodating refugees within a three-year timeframe.

This occurs at a time when Ankara is pressing for the repatriation of refugees and their return to their home country, particularly due to the strain they have placed on the economy, which is currently experiencing a substantial downturn. Taking into account Turkey’s apprehensions regarding the activities of the “QSD” to solidify its control in northern Syria, as well as the Syrian regime’s rejection to address Ankara’s requests regarding refugee repatriation, Turkey’s renewed military escalation in northern Syria can be interpreted in light of these factors.

5. The assault on “QSD” areas serves as a message from Turkey to the United States, which opposes Turkish military operations in northern Syria and rejects Turkish reconciliation with the Syrian regime. Within this context, it becomes evident that the recent Turkish attack primarily seeks to influence the American stance, which contradicts Turkish interests in the Syrian arena. Moreover, the Turkish offensive aims to showcase Turkey’s capacity to confront “QSD” and counteract the policy of imposing unilateral actions that Washington seeks to pursue in Syria.

6. By conducting military airstrikes, Ankara aimed to reassert its dedication to advancing previously promised military initiatives. These plans had experienced delays due to the legislative and presidential elections held in the previous May, as well as the earthquake that struck Turkey in February. Despite the opposition from Europe and the United States against the military approach in dealing with the “QSD” militia, Ankara remains resolute in pursuing its course of action. The stance of European and American authorities will not deter Ankara.

Direct Threats

Given these circumstances, it can be asserted that the recent Turkish military strikes, which targeted “QSD” and Syrian army positions, serve as clear warning messages to the parties involved in the Syrian conflict. These strikes underscore Turkey’s unwavering determination to pursue its objectives, which encompass dismantling the Kurdish self-administration project in northern Syria and facilitating the repatriation of Syrian refugees to their home country, despite opposition from the Damascus regime.