Sweden continues its efforts to persuade Turkey to ratify its membership in NATO. It has brought in new anti-terror legislation to outlaw entities designated by Turkey as terrorist organizations, and has extradited a wanted supporter of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) to Turkey in a first-of-its-kind precedent. Sweden’s accommodations, coupled with economic challenges that are growing Turkey’s dependence on Western FDI , make it likely that Turkey will approve Sweden’s accession to NATO in the next summit held in Lithuania in July.
Over the past few days, Sweden has taken a series of actions to resolve issues preventing Turkey from ratifying its NATO membership. At the forefront of which, is the ban of Kurdish entities active in Sweden who were classified as terrorists by Turkey, and Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Christerson’s statement congratulating Erdogan’s reelection saying, “our common security is a priority for the future.”
Turkey opposed Sweden’s bid to join NATO, barring their membership which requires unanimous agreement by NATO member states. After Erdogan’s reelection on May 28, Stockholm expressed its willingness to discuss Turkey’s reservations seeing as Erdogan’s upcoming five-year term will force Sweden to adopt a new approach with Ankara.
Diverse considerations
Several developments reveal growing consensus between Ankara and Stockholm, pointing to the increasing likelihood that Turkey could ratify Sweden’s application to enter NATO. These developments can be listed as follows:
- Sweden adopts new legislation to combat extremism and terrorism: Legal legislation passed by the Swedish Parliament on May 4, which included a ban on activities linked to extremist groups, came into force early this June. Moreover, last November Sweden amended its Constitution to ban terrorist entities, which was previously contrary to Swedish laws on the freedom to form groups. The amendment included the imposition of heavy measures on combating armed groups and criminalized involvement by terrorist organizations.
In parallel, Sweden has pledged to step up its counter-terrorism operations, including those against PKK activities, and any organizations or bodies associated with or acting as a front for it, including media propaganda, fundraising, recruitment, and more as per the tripartite agreement signed by Sweden, Finland and Turkey in June 2022.
Turkey welcomed the legal and political accommodations regarding the outlawing of entities described by Turkey as terrorists such as the PKK. Turkish presidential spokesman Ibrahim Kälin, before assuming the role of Director of the National Intelligence, praised Sweden’s actions and, in remarks last May, noted that Turkey was planning to hold a meeting with Finland and Sweden in June to discuss the course of Stockholm’s accession to NATO.
- Sweden’s response to Turkey’s Defence Industry Agency: In a related news, Sweden has pushed for ending the arms embargo imposed on Turkey by the Swedish Government in October 2019 in response to the military operation launched by the Turkish army against the Kurdish YPG in northern Syria. Turkey appears keen to restore and develop its military relations with Sweden, as the latter enjoys the upper hand in sophisticated military technology. Thus, military cooperation with Stockholm may enhance Turkey’s military capabilities and allow it to meet import requirements needed by the Turkish Defence Industry Agency.
- Extradition of wanted PKK supporters to Turkey: In a first-of-its-kind precedent, Sweden agreed on June 12 to extradite to Turkey a supporter of the PKK, which Ankara has listed as a terrorist organization. The decision followed the Swedish Supreme Court’s approval of his extradition. It should be noted that this decision meets one of the conditions set by Ankara for the ratification of Sweden’s membership in NATO.
- Preventing the burning of the Quran and banning anti-Turkish demonstrations: Turkey was one of the countries that expressed anger after a far-right activist last January burned a copy of the Holy Quran near the Turkish Embassy in Stockholm last January, and cancelled the Swedish Defence Minister’s planned visit to Ankara. As Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on January 24, “Sweden should not expect Turkey’s support for NATO accession after burning the Holy Quran.” He added: “It is clear that those who caused such an outrageous act in front of our country’s embassy can no longer expect our support in regard to their request.”
In response, Swedish police have refused to grant refusing last February to grant a permit to stage rallies near the Turkish Embassy last February, fearing Turkey’s wrath whereby the Swedish Internal Security Agency warned of the negative repercussions of anti-Turkey demonstrations and the burning of the Quran on undermining the country’s likelihood of gaining Turkey’s approval to enter NATO.
- The West coming round after Erdogan’s reelection: Erdogan’s reelection loosened tensions with Western powers, particularly, the US. On May 31, President Biden expressed support for Turkey’s acquisition of F16 fighter jets, and Foreign Minister Anthony Blinken stressed that his country did not link the sale of fighters to Ankara to the issue of Sweden’s accession to NATO. Several NATO member states also urged the government of Sweden to take significant steps to address Ankara’s objections to its accession.
Securing gains
Although Erdogan will be in office for the next five years, Turkey faces many challenges in relieving tensions with the West. Foremost among which is protracted economic decline and currency devaluation. Western FDI is an important for Turkey’s economy, as well as Turkey’s transformation into a hub for European and American companies moving out of Russia due to the Ukrainian war.
In this context, Turkey may agree to ratify Sweden’s membership in NATO during the summit to be held next July in the city of Vilnius in Lithuania, in order to obtain a deal that would contribute to securing its interests with Western NATO member states, the most important of which would be to gain access to the European Union, accelerating Turkey’s acquisition of the sophisticated F-16 aircraft, as well as strengthening cooperation with Washington in Turkish army development projects. It is thus likely that Turkey will agree to Sweden’s accession to NATO at the forthcoming NATO summit to ensure that NATO states support Turkey’s economy, which is in dire need of FDI.
Avoiding Backfire
In conclusion, it can be argued that despite Turkey’s demand for Sweden to impose more stringent anti-terror legislation on Kurdish elements, Turkey is expected to ratify Sweden’s membership at the upcoming summit in Lithuania, after Sweden made significant strides in resolving issues with Turkey, most notably regarding the PKK. Also, as economic indicators decline, Turkey needs to avoid Western pressure and encourage economic relations. It is therefore unlikely that Turkey will block Sweden’s accession to NATO in order to avoid the fury of NATO states, particularly the US, which could backfire on Turkey.