U.S forces are collaborating with the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) to combat the threats posed by ISIS cells in Syria, especially in the northeastern areas controlled by the SDF. This effort is in response to the exploitation by ISIS cells of the  Turkish bombings to activate their networks and attempt to release detainees held in the security headquarters in Raqqa.

To counter these threats, the SDF has intensified its security campaigns during January, while the US forces are dismantling the cells through targeted operations based on intelligence information. They are also securing detention centers for ISIS elements and providing military reinforcements and logistical support for operations in Syria.

Concerns about the escalating operations of ISIS in Syria have been growing since November. The group’s activities have been concentrated in the southern and central desert regions of the country and are gradually moving towards the areas controlled by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in northeastern Syria. Turkish aerial and artillery bombing operations on SDF areas have affected security operations targeting ISIS members and have raised the alarm in areas where the group has made inroads.

However, despite these challenges, US forces have maintained their involvement in field operations as part of the international coalition against ISIS.

Growing Fears of Escalation:

The increased activity of ISIS has raised concerns among multiple parties, not only in Syria arena but also in Iraq. The following contexts summarize the reasons behind the concerns:

1- The UN and US Warn of the ISIS Resurgence: Recent Turkish air and artillery strikes on SDF-controlled areas, alongside ongoing drone strikes in January, and other factors contributing to continued fragility  in security and ISIS’s ability to adapt have raised concerns about the organization’s ability to rebuild its capabilities, despite continuous counter-terrorism efforts.

Reports from both the UN and US warn of the terrorist organization’s growing activity in Syria and Iraq in 2023 and its ability to persevere despite counter-terrorism campaigns. Additionally, media reports indicate that the US is concerned about retaliatory campaigns by the organization in response to the targeting of its leaders in Syria.

2- Intensification of ISIS Operational Activity in Syria: The pro-ISIS news agency “Amaq” released data showing that the group intensified its operations in late December 2022. While there were only nine operations between January 1st and 26th, 2023, there were 14 operations during the last quarter of 2020.

Meanwhile, the “Syrian Observatory for Human Rights” reported that ISIS carried out about 14 operations in Syria since the beginning of January. Although the data on the group’s operational activity in Syria is conflicting, the indicators suggest a possible escalation in activity. It is also possible that ISIS deliberately conceals the total number of its operations in the desert and southern regions of Syria.

However, the most significant change in ISIS’s operational activity is its focus on freeing its detained members in prisons or detention centers. In December 2022, the group attacked the security headquarters of the SDF in Raqqa to liberate its members.

3- US forces facing security challenges with targeting of “Al-Tanf” base: In addition to the increased operational activity of ISIS in Syria, US forces stationed in the country are facing other security challenges. In January, the Al-Tanf base was hit by new shelling. Although the shelling is not linked to ISIS and is likely the work of Iranian-backed militias in the area, it increases pressure on US forces, particularly as they plan for increased military engagement in Syria, particularly in areas influenced by the SDF forces.

Media reports during the second half of last year indicated that the US planned to establish new military bases in northeast Syria, specifically in the Raqqa province, which is jointly controlled by the SDF, Syrian Army forces, and Iranian-backed militias.

4- Iraqi officials have expressed concerns about the potential increase in activity by ISIS in the coming period: Despite not having observed any significant uptick in the group’s operational activity in Iraq over the past few months. These concerns may be linked to intelligence information obtained by Iraqi forces during the arrest of active members of the group.

Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kadhimi made a statement in January regarding the need for foreign forces to remain in Iraq, specifically the US forces who are part of the international coalition to combat ISIS. Their role is limited to providing support in the form of information, intelligence, training, and guidance to the Iraqi forces who are pursuing ISIS elements.

Despite the statement being open to multiple political interpretations, it reveals Iraq’s concern about ISIS, acknowledging that the group still has the capability to carry out operational activities. This highlights the need to continue counterterrorism operations and coordinate with US forces and the SDF to prevent infiltration of elements between Iraq and Syria.

Intensified Movements:

Concerned about the potential for ISIS to intensify its operations and exploit the situation in Syria, both the UN and US have taken steps to confront this activity on the ground. These movements include:

1. Increased security operations by the SDF in Raqqa: The SDF’s efforts are not limited to restoring security patrols in northeastern Syria, following security breaches by ISIS in areas subjected to the Turkish bombing. They have expanded to include intensive security campaigns in specific areas, such as Deir ez-Zor province in December, after reports of the organization’s elements appearing publicly in the province.

SDF forces conducted security campaigns in January to root out suspected terrorist cells, specifically in Raqqa province following an attack on a central security headquarters in December. In late December, they launched the “Jazeera Storm” operation, resulting in the arrest of dozens of leaders and members of the organization in cities such as Raqqa, Tabqa, Al-Karama, and Sareen.

To contain the threat posed by ISIS, the SDF launched a second security operation on January 25th, targeting Raqqa province and its rural areas. This demonstrates the SDF’s commitment to eliminating terrorist cells, which are dispersed and located in various areas, to prevent them from targeting the region.

2. The American forces are continuing their specialized operations that aim to dismantle ISIS cells by targeting leaders and active members of the group’s structure, both operationally and in logistical support groups. These operations are in addition to the field and air support provided by American forces to the SDF as part of the international coalition to confront ISIS. Joint patrols have also been restored in SDF-controlled areas to enforce security since December.

On January 23rd, media reports stated that the US Central Command announced the arrest of two ISIS leaders in a ground operation supported by air cover. The arrested individuals were Abdullah Hamid Mousa Al-Madad, known as Abu Hamza Al-Souri, and Hussam Hamid Al-Souri.

3- In mid-January, local media reports revealed that the United States has deployed military reinforcements, mostly logistical, to their bases in Hasakah province. These reinforcements came from the military base in Iraqi Kurdistan and passed through the Shaddadi base in the south of the province. Although this is not the first time US military movements have been detected to deploy military reinforcements to some of its bases in Syria, some reports indicate that joint exercises between US forces and SDF forces are taking place in Hasakah province.

4- Due to ISIS’s attempts to free its members from camps and prisons, particularly the “Al-Hol” camp in Syria, security measures in these facilities are being strengthened. The camp houses thousands of ISIS members and their families, and if some are freed, it could lead to an increase in the group’s operational activity and their return to Syria. This has implications for the security situation in Iraq, given the porous border between the two countries.

To mitigate this threat, the SDF, with support from the US-led international coalition, has been bolstering security measures since November of last year in response to Turkish shelling operations. Rather than conducting security patrols and campaigns to pursue ISIS members, the SDF has been concentrating on fortifying security in prisons and camps. They have also heightened security measures around these facilities and executed security campaigns inside the camps in partnership with the international coalition. As part of this effort, some families were separated and relocated from the seventh sector to the first sector within the Al-Hol camp to keep ISIS cells under control.

The recent increase in US forces, working in conjunction with the SDF, has resulted in more field and military operations aimed at confronting ISIS cells. This effort is an attempt to make up for the setback in counterterrorism operations caused by the intense Turkish shelling that took place in November and December of last year, which allowed ISIS cells to intensify their operations in multiple directions, particularly towards areas controlled by the SDF. By working with the SDF, the US forces aim to contain threats and continue to pressure ISIS cells to prevent a security deterioration associated with the intensification of the organization’s operational activity.

Intensification of the Confrontation

The recent increase in US forces, working in conjunction with the SDF, has resulted in more field and military operations aimed at confronting ISIS cells. This effort is an attempt to make up for the setback in counterterrorism operations caused by the intense Turkish shelling that took place in November and December of last year, which allowed ISIS cells to intensify their operations in multiple directions, particularly towards areas controlled by the SDF. By working with the SDF, the US forces aim to contain threats and continue to pressure ISIS cells to prevent a security deterioration associated with the intensification of the organization’s operational activity.