In response to the drone attack by Iranian proxies on a US military base in northeastern Syria, on March 23, which led to the death of an American pensioner and wounded six others which included 5 US service members, the US President Joe Biden ordered air raids on facilities in Syria used by the militias affiliated with the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. 

The spokesperson for the pentagon General Bat Raider said that the strikes were carried out using F-15s and targeted facilities, that included an arms depot and an observation tower, that are part of the IRGC infrastructure in Syria. The US president Biden has ordered in the past 2 years air raids that have targeted Iranian proxies in Syria, which took place in February and June of 2021 and August 2022. 

The renewed hostilities that targeted attack against US personnel, numbering 900 in Syria, by Iranian proxies in Syria comes after a surprise visit by the US Joint Chief of Staff Mark Miley on the 4^th of March to a US base in Northeastern Syria. The US has also deployed contactors to work alongside the Syrian Democratic Forces to help prevent another rise of IS in the region. The visit by the Joint Chief was aiming to be a show of strength after the base was repeatedly exposed to attacks during the previous months by Iranian militias in Syria. 

The Message Behind the Attacks

This escalation reveals a series of messages being sent between Iran and the US represented in the following: 

1. Increase pressure on the US presence in Syria: The recent attacks against US military bases in Syria reveal that US military presence in Syria is under threat, with many seeing that these attacks will only increase. Over the past seven years, since their arrival in Syria, US soldiers have been subjected to numerous attacks by Iranian proxies on a regular basis. According to the Iranian Missile Tracking Program (Rockets, Mortars, and Drones) of the Jewish Institute for National Security of America, Iranian-backed militias have targeted US service members in Syria at least 72 times since 2017, and this does not include attacks last week. More than 90% of these attacks have occurred within the past two years. The commander of US Central Command, General Eric Korella, noted that Iran’s proxies have carried out drone or missile attacks against US forces in the Middle East 78 times since the beginning of 2021, at a rate of approximately one attack every 10 days.
   

In this context, the US military presence in Syria is not only exposed to threats from Iran’s proxies, but also faces harassment by Russian forces, as General Korella told the Senate Armed Services Committee, on March 16, that the Russian air forces are increasingly flying over the positions of US forces in a “provocative” manner. The commander of the air forces in the US Central Command, General Alexus Grynkewich, revealed that Russian fighters were carrying ammunition when they flew over a US military base in Syria almost every day during the month of March. This is in violation of an agreement between the US and Russia to avoid accidental confrontations or any provocative moves.

2. Excluding Syria from the Decision to End the US’s Never-Ending Wars: US President Joe Biden has sought to end the endless US wars in the Middle East. Indeed, he ordered the withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan in August 2021, before the twentieth anniversary of the 9/11, despite the opposition of many military officials in his administration. He also supported an agreement with the Iraqi government to limit the tasks of the US forces in Iraq, numbering 2,500 soldiers, to providing advice, training, and logistical support to Iraqi forces to fight terrorist organizations. However, this policy did not extend to Syria, where the US is still committed to fighting the IS and putting pressure on the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, which is subject to strong sanctions from the US.
   
3. Countering Any Threats Against Americans Abroad:  The recent US air raids in Syria, and those in the past two years, have revealed that President Biden does conduct military strikes against Iran’s proxies unless a death occurs as a result of a strike on a US military base. In his speech to the Congress in March, following his order to launch an air strike against the facilities belonging to the IRGC in Syria, the President confirmed that the latest military strikes aimed to protect US personnel and weaken and disrupt the ongoing attacks against US forces and their partners in the Middle East. The response is also aiming to deter Iran and its proxies from launching or supporting further attacks on US personnel and bases in the region.
   
4. Taking Advantage of the Weakened US position in the Middle East: US officials stated that the main air defense system at the base, which was recently targeted by Iranian proxies, was not fully operational at the time. This raises questions about whether the attackers discovered and exploited this vulnerability, or if it was simply a coincidence that the attack occurred during a malfunction in the defense system. Another US official said that the missile defense system at the base may have been suffering from maintenance problems, as per a report by the New York Times on March 24.
   
5. Division on Whether or Not to Stay in Syria: Several US lawmakers are calling on the Biden administration to withdraw US forces from Syria in the wake of the continued attacks launched by Iran’s proxies on US military bases. The call also emanates from the fact that IS is in decline in Syria for the foreseeable future. Other Lawmakers are eager to call on President Biden to maintain the US military presence in Syria as withdrawing from the country would threaten the US interests and will allow terrorist organizations and Iranian proxies to consolidate their influence further. Based on these concerns, the House of Representatives rejected a bill presented by Republican Matt Gaetz to withdraw US forces from Syria. Supporters of keeping US forces in Syria are quick to remind everyone on the repercussions that occurred because of the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, which led to the Taliban seizing power after two decades of US occupation. It was a costly retreat and ended the successes achieved by the US during the past 20 years in Afghanistan.

Limited Effectiveness

The repeated attacks by Iranian proxies against US military bases, despite previous US retaliatory air strikes against them, reveals that they are not sufficient to deter Iran or its proxies from challenging the US presence in the Middle East. In response to the recent military attacks against IRGC facilities in Syria, the Iranian-backed militias launched a barrage of attacks the next day against another US base in northeastern Syria.

The US attacks on Iran’s proxies in Syria are likely to raise the stakes with Iran as Biden administration officials view Iran as the greatest security threat in the Middle East, responsible for the instability throughout the region and a threat to the US’s partners. This comes despite Biden’s assertion that the UIS does not seek a conflict with Iran, but rather aims to send a message to IRan that the US will not tolerate operations that kill US citizens, and that it will respond quickly and decisively if US citizens in the Middle East are threatened by its proxies.