President Joe Biden’s political history shows his strong support for Israel during his tenure as a Senator, as well as his eight years as a former U.S. Vice President to Barack Obama. Nonetheless, the decades-long strategic partnership between the US and Israel has witnessed several shifts because of the changing political climate within the US; recent policies by successive Israeli Governments; Israel’s stance towards international crises in which the US is engaged; as well as the radical differences between the US and Israel’s approach to a number of issues in the Middle East. Consequently, there have been indications of a trend towards the reassessment of US-Israeli relations, and the degree to which they serve US interests and national security. This trend is linked to a number of developments, including:
Appointment of officials critical of Israel: American presidents, both Democrats and Republicans, have often chosen pro-Israel executives. The climate in Washington is changing somewhat, with Tel Aviv increasingly adopting policies that counter American interests, especially with regard to strengthening relations with Russia and China. There is also a shift in American public opinion over US support for Israel, which has been reflected in the Biden administration officials who do not support Israeli policies. The appointment of the new White House spokesperson Karen Jean-Pierre, who replaced Jane Sake on May 5, is the latest example. The new spokesperson has been accused by Israeli media of hostility towards Israel and the American- Israeli Public Affairs Committee AIPAC, as she had published an article in Newsweek on March 26, 2019, where she called on candidates for the 2020 presidential elections to distance themselves from this organization. The article also criticized Israeli policies towards Palestinians, and former Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Widening disagreements: Disagreements between Washington and Tel Aviv have widened on many important issues, most notably the Vienna nuclear negotiations. Tel Aviv opposes efforts by Biden’s administration to revive the 2015 agreement with Iran, as it will, in Israel’s view, increase Iran’s regional role and will make more funds available to finance terrorism. In turn, many U.S. officials have expressed concern over Chinese investments in Israel, particularly in the technology sector, as well as China’s participation in major Israeli infrastructure projects. Moreover, the Israeli government did not take a supportive stance on U.S. policies to isolate Russia following its military intervention in Ukraine. Both Democratic and Republican lawmakers have expressed surprise and disappointment that Israel, which receives more US foreign aid than any other country in the world, has not sent weapons to Ukraine, nor joined the sanctions regime imposed on Russia by the US, Europe and other countries.
Decline of domestic support for Israel: Gallup’s survey on March 17, 2022 revealed that 55 percent of Americans sympathize with Israelis and 26 percent with Palestinians, which is a decline from the 59 percent that were sympathetic to Israel in 2020, and reflects a rise from 21 percent support for the Palestinians that same year. The results also showed a divide within the Democratic Party over support for Israel, with 40 percent of the party in support of Israel, and 38 percent supporting Palestinians. This reflects a significant change, as in 2013, Democrats’ support for the Israeli ally outperformed support for Palestinians by about 35 percentage points. Support for Israel remains consistently high in the Republican Party.
Changing priorities in the Democratic Party: In line with declining support for Israel and its policies in Palestinian territories within the party, and the rise of the progressive wing which played a significant role in Joe Biden’s victory over Donald Trump, President Biden has been under pressure to bring about a shift in traditional U.S. policies in support of Israel. The shifting priorities of the Democrats was illustrated by the results of a survey of Democratic voters published on April 17, 2022. The author, Shibli Talhami, pointed out that Democrats placed Israel at the bottom of the list of important U.S. allies, behind eight other countries, with less than one percent of Democrats surveyed considering Israel as the first or second choice. It is worth noting that the change in sentiment regarding priorities appears to extend to the Jewish community in the US. Results of a recent survey conducted by the Jewish Voters Institute, from March 3rd to April 4th , showed that the issue of climate change tops the priorities of American Jewish voters by 29 percent, followed by voting rights (28%), as well as economic issues (25%), with Israel and Iran coming at the bottom of the list of concerns at 4% and 3% percent, respectively.
Rising criticisms of AIPAC: AIPAC has been facing strong criticism from prominent Jewish leaders and commentators, including former senior officials, after announcing support for more than 30 members of Congress who voted to overturn the results of the presidential election on 6 January 2021. Instead of changing course, AIPAC announced the support of 109 members of Congress labeled by media reports as “anti-democratic” in the next midterm congressional elections in November. This has raised questions in many American political circles about the extent to which the Israeli lobby is concerned with protecting American democracy.
In sum, it appears that US-Israeli relations continue to be impacted by the fallout from the contentious relationship between former Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former US President Barack Obama over the Iran nuclear deal. Deepening US-Israeli differences and generational changes within the US are acting as a catalyst for change in America’s policy towards Israel, especially as the attention of the US public is turning more towards domestic issues, such as social justice and racial equality.