On 4 January 2022, the Arab World Centre for Research and Advanced Studies in Cairo, organized a panel discussion on “The Prospects for De-escalation in the Middle East”. The Centre hosted the Chairman of the Board of Directors of “Egypt Today” and member of the Egyptian Senate, Dr. Abdel Menem Said as the keynote speaker. Other panelists included Dr. Mohammad Ezz Al Arab, Dr. Mohammad Abbas Nagi, Mr Ahmed Eleiba, Dr. Ahmed Amal, Mr Amr Abdalaati, Mr Mohamed Bassiouni, Dr. Hamdi Bashir, Ms Mervat Zakaria and Mr Mohamed Al Fiqi.
Dr. Abdel Menem Said began the session by noting that the starting point for an analysis of the current regional situation and ongoing de-escalation in the Middle East should be the explosion of popular uprisings that started at the end of 2010. These uprisings, that some have dubbed as ‘The Arab Spring’, went through two major phases: the first wave from 2010 to 2012, and the second wave from 2019 to 2020. These uprisings have had a long-lasting impact on states in the region, although those undertaking them did not have a clear agenda regarding what should take place.
Dr. Said argued these uprisings had an adverse impact on nation-states in the Arab region, as “the state” assumed negative connotations in many people’s minds, especially in view of civil wars breaking out in some Arab States. Moreover, politicized Islamist movements exploited the uprisings to advance their interests and gain access to power, and the development process has been stalled in more than one Arab State. Parallel to the internal impact of the uprisings, external forces were clearly present throughout the course of events in the region. It appears that the region has become open to many international and regional actors, such as Iran and Turkey, who are pursuing interests and objectives that do not necessarily correspond to those of Arab states.
New calls for reform
Although the Arab uprisings negatively affected the nation- state, they have, on the other hand, driven new calls for reform to address the imbalances and crises that gave rise to these uprisings. In this context, Dr. Said pointed out that states who have managed to withstand the storms of the Arab Spring, have launched large-scale visionary reforms, setting their targets for 2030. What this means, is that Arab countries who have chosen comprehensive reforms have set out on a journey towards twenty-first century technologies, industries and sciences.
Dr. Said clarified that the direction of reform in Arab states is linked to a number of key dimensions, perhaps the most important of which is restoring public confidence in the Arab state as an institution, with a view to blocking interventions from regional forces who wish to expand their influence at the expense of national interests. It is noted here that the weakness of Arab nation-states has been one of the main factors intensifying regional conflicts. Against this background, some states have launched large-scale development programmes based mainly on mega-projects. Like Saudi Arabia, some countries have undergone cultural shifts, not to mention theological reevaluations, that have spread throughout the region.
De-escalation
The attempts at reform undertaken by a number of Arab states have occurred in conjunction with recent de-escalatory measures in the region, considering that regional conflicts have been costly for the reform projects initiated by many states. Here, Dr. Abdel Menem Said points out that the path to de-escalation in the region is related to a number of key factors:
Reversing policies by regional powers. Some regional forces, in particular Turkey, have expressed a desire to reverse the escalatory policies they have pursued in recent years. Dr. Said finds that this shift in Turkish politics is linked to a number of variables, primarily Turkey’s current “over stretch”, resulting from its involvement in a number of conflicts and crises simultaneously: in Libya, Somalia, Syria and Iraq. This has led to a severe drain on Turkish resources and has generated pressures on the regime.
The effects of US withdrawal from the region. In recent years, Washington has adopted a policy of reducing involvement, and retreating from direct and extensive engagement with the region’s issues and crises. The US is currently redirecting resources and attention to other regions to counter rising Chinese influence. These trends, emphasized by the Biden administration, have spurred many countries in the region to take de-escalation measures in anticipation of American withdrawal.
Dr. Said added that the US withdrawal coincided with the rise of Chinese influence in the region, as well as globally. Beijing embraces a policy of openness to opposing forces and tolerance of differences. This allows China to establish good relations with both Israel and Iran, as well as with other Arab States. Chinese presence in the region requires Arab states to examine how to manage relations with multiple international powers from the perspective of achieving their own interests, without relying on the use of force.
De-escalating conflicts and regional rapprochements. Dr. Said pointed out that de-escalation does not mean that differences and conflicts have been resolved in a fundamental way. Rather it refers to a reduction in the level of violence, or at least imposing a temporary freeze on explosive situations. By this definition, the outcomes of the Gulf Summit in January 2021 indicate these efforts are progressing, including turning the page on the conflict between Qatar and the Arab Quartet; peace agreements between some Arab States and Israel; and serious attempts to open a new page in relations between Turkey and several Arab states, such as Egypt and the UAE. There are also ongoing talks between Iran and Saudi Arabia to ease the tensions between them. These talks are a consequence of US withdrawal from the region, and a manifestation of Tehran’s desire to emerge from under the economic pressure it faces because of the sanctions imposed on it.
Initiatives for regional cooperation. Many initiatives for cooperation have been launched across the region and are gaining momentum. The most notable examples are the East Mediterranean Gas Forum, the New Levant (Al Sham) Initiative, and the Egyptian Gas Transport to Lebanon through Syrian and Jordanian territory, which aims to revive the Arab Gas and Electricity Transport Line, suspended since the end of 2011. What is interesting here, is that the initiative to transport Egyptian gas to Lebanon has provided serious indications of regional openness to the Syrian regime after years of isolation.
Main concerns
Although Dr. Said believes that the path towards de-escalation will continue in the near future, he pointed out a number of concerns to be taken into account, which include:
The Syrian dilemma, how to deal with the Syrian regime after years of internal conflict, in view of various attempts to engage the regime recently. Moreover, the regime has not been able yet to impose its authority on some areas such as northwestern Syria, where there are many regional and international parties, as well as armed and terrorist groups.
The crisis in Lebanon. Lebanon is facing a severe political and economic crisis, and the state is nearing bankruptcy. The only way out seems to be the re-establishment of the nation-state and moving away from the sectarian formula that has ruled Lebanon for decades.
The Palestinian cause. This the most complex issue in the region. For decades, all possible initiatives to resolve the conflict have failed, Palestinian-Palestinian disputes have exacerbated the situation, and several factions have attempted to throw off course any settlements with Israel. The issue is further complicated by Iran linking the nuclear issue with other regional issues, including the Palestinian cause.
The Libyan question. Despite the intensity of the conflict has recently been reduced, the situation in Libya continues to be one of the most uncertain in the region. This is compounded by postponed and faltering elections, leading to a web of mistrust and contention among political factions. This consequently increases doubts about the future of Libya’s political path.
The Sudan crisis. As demonstrations continue on the streets of Sudan, the instability raises questions about the country’s future. Many of the protesters are raising slogans similar to those raised during the first wave of the Arab Spring, and there are calls for removing the military from power. There are concerns we may witness a repeat of the scenario in Syria, where the government may lose control over part of Sudan’s territories, which could be then taken over by terrorist elements working to replicate the ISIS experience in Syria and Iraq.