The Afghani government, represented by a delegation headed by Abdallah Abdallah, including the former President of Afghanistan Hamid Karzai as well, has embarked on unprecedented negotiations with the Taliban, in an effort to reach an arrangement on the situation in Afghanistan following the withdrawal of US forces set to be concluded by the end of August 2021. This is an attempt to stem the tide of conflict within Afghanistan between the Taliban forces and the Afghan Armed Forces, in which the Taliban have demonstrated their ability to tip the scales in their favor, thereby weakening the Afghan government, and perhaps toppling it in the future.
The negotiations signal those domestic forces are seeking to fill the vacuum left by US military withdrawal, yet it is too early to tell what their potential outcome will be, or if any agreement reached can in fact be implemented. There is one exception to this uncertainty however, which relates to preventing Afghanistan from once more becoming a launching pad for terrorist attacks against the US. This was emphasized by US President Biden in his speech on the 8th of July, during which he outlined several scenarios concerning Afghanistan’s future. These reflect that the Taliban are in their strongest military position since the American Invasion in 2001, but that US intelligence reports, according to President Biden, indicate that Taliban control over Afghanistan is not a forgone conclusion, and that the Afghan government will not collapse. Biden expressed his faith in the abilities of the Afghan military forces, and noted that historically, no country has been able to unify Afghanistan.
The speech suggests that the US expects the situation on the ground in Afghanistan to lean towards chaos, escalation, and instability, along the following lines:
1- The Balance of power favors the Taliban: The Taliban are much stronger than they were prior to the American invasion in 2001. This is a lesson learnt, as the Afghan experience in the field played a large role in helping to maintain a combative edge against the Americans. During the Soviet Invasion the Taliban were able to gain a lot of experience and a great deal of weaponry, left behind by the Soviet Union. The US paid the price as Afghan fighters had gained 10 years’ worth of combat experience against the Soviet Union. Now after the US withdrawal, Taliban has a generation of combatants who have fought two of the world’s strongest armies.
2- No guarantees that Doha agreement will be implemented: When President Biden clearly indicated that he had no trust in the Taliban but had all the trust in the Afghan Armed Forces, this did not reflect the reality on the ground. The movements of Taliban forces, timed to coincide with Biden’s speech, indicates they aim to takeover completely. The move outwards to take control of border zones rather than push for Kabul, signaled they would be the ones to fill the vacuum, and prevent any foreign forces from breaching the border. Taking over the capital is only a matter of time, which they will decide and are well placed to achieve, as they currently occupy the hills and mountains surrounding Kabul.
3- Negotiating a deal not a reconciliation: Current negotiations are taking place in the context of Taliban advances in the field, there is no trust between the parties. The head of the reconciliation committee Abdallah Abdallah believes that the Taliban is only playing for time in the negotiations to take control of more land, however, the head of the political movement of the Taliban Moatasim Aghakhan states that the Taliban are seeking to resolve the situation through negotiations. What is notable about his speech is that he affirmed that Taliban were not seeking to rule Afghanistan alone this time, and that they have learnt the lessons of the past when the US toppled their regime in 2001. The Taliban are seeking a power sharing deal, relying on their influence and strong capabilities.
International Concern:
On the global stage, most international powers, specifically Russia and China, believe the US has caused an unprecedented crisis when it decided to withdraw. All the parties are now simply watching and waiting and fear the consequences:
1- Concerned neighbors: Russian appraisals, both official and unofficial, view the American withdrawal from Afghanistan as a ticking time bomb that will blow up in the face of regional powers, yet Russia is not prepared to venture into another invasion of Afghanistan. China is worried about the rise of the Taliban and how this will affect the Uighur minority as they fear a link could develop between them and the Taliban. China has not made clear its position on the future of Afghanistan, although this has consequences for its all-important Belt and Road project. Iran, as well as Uzbekistan, bore the brunt of US withdrawal, as the Taliban took over the “Islam Qalaa” border crossing with Iran, as well as the “Togundy” border crossing with Uzbekistan. Pakistan appears far less concerned regarding Taliban advances.
2- Temporary containment policies: Regional powers have moved to, for the time being, contain the consequences of US withdrawal. Russia hosted the Taliban, although it is on their terrorist list, and the Taliban have sought to reassure their northern neighbors that they only seek to stabilize Afghanistan. However, the Russian special envoy to Afghanistan, Zamir Kaplov put the spotlight once again on the importance of the Collective Security Treaty Organization in preparation for what is to come. Russia is seeking to re-activate the Collective Security Treaty Organization and bring back Uzbekistan into it, however, in a clear statement Uzbekistan has declared that it does not seek to do so. Several Russian newspapers have leaked information regarding preparations on the Russian border and in Tajikistan, which hosts a Russian base, leading many to speculate on how long this policy of temporary containment will last, as the Taliban have Russia to remove them from the terrorist list. Kaplov, on the other hand has indicated the need for more meaningful negotiations first.