Polarization and fragmentation underscore the nearing of Turkish elections, with political fracture peaking between the ruling coalition and opposition forces to the point of physical engagment. Several indicators attest to the intensity of the situation – including political slander and smearing, burgeoning campaign spending, and competing national loyalties.
Turkey is witnessing sharp political polarization between rival parties as legislative and presidential elections are about to be held on May 14. The country’s swelling discord leaves the longstanding AKP concerned as economic decline may translate into a loss of voters’ confidence in the party.
In contrast, the Table of Six alliance’s candidate, Kamel Kilicdaroglu sees improving chances of winning head of state. Competition intensified as Kilicdaroglu received the Peoples’ Democratic Party backing, in addition to support from the opposition as well as minorities and a wide cross-section of youth people. Moreover, secular opposition sought to capture the conservative bloc, following Kilicdaroglu’s pledge enact a law affirming the right to wear a hijab upon his victory.
Pivotal Polls
Turkey’s current legislative and presidential elections are exceptionally momentous. In addition to coinciding with the 100-year mark since the establishment of a secular Turkish Republic by Ataturk, it is of crucial importance to the AKP, and its ally the Nationalist Movement Party, as well as the opposition, who have formed the National Alliance bloc. Fierce rivalry is expected as Turkish opposition works to win the majority of Parliament, should it lose the presidential seat, in order to mobilize its representatives to bring back the country’s parliamentary system. On the other hand, the ruling coalition is keen to ensure that it continues to dominate Parliament, and block attempts to abolish the presidential system in order to avoid a coalition government that may limit AKP policies or alter their compass. Erdogan understands that winning the presidency without parliament gives his opponents a strong arm that may compel him to settle and concede on several contentious issues.
Thus far, the elections reflect the level of Erdogan’s and AKP’s popularity on the Turkish street. As many polls have confirmed, President Erdogan’s popularity has declined due to deteriorating living conditions, authoritarian practices at home, and the country’s growing tensions in US and EU relations. The results of the current elections will therefore reveal Erdogan’s standing within Turkey.
The upcoming elects are a true litmus test of the oppositions’ strength and its ability to succeed in overcoming differences and align its objectives. The results of the electoral process will indicate the ability of the opposition amongst Turkish citizens to win political backing on Turkish streets, engage with citizens’ concerns, and repeat the 2019 local elections when they won the majority of major municipalities, including Istanbul, Ankara, Anatolia, Izmir and others.
Moreover, these elections will reveal the popularity of the Peoples’ Democratic Party, the Alawi minority, and Generation Z, as well as the ability of these groups to influence the electoral landscape, especially since a wide segment of these voting blocs has shown a striking bias in favour of the Turkish opposition.
Diverging Politics
Several indicators point to the polarizing effects of the current elections, and growing rivalries among parties. These include:
- Attacking secular opposition: The Turkish President launched a sharp offensive against the Table of Six in general, and at Kamal Kilicdaroglu in particular. Last March, Erdogan stated that, “They [The Table of Six] are a shame for humanity… Let’s see what kind of shame awaits them in the coming days. As I have said before, the convene, they discuss, and they diverge.” On April 3, he also targeted Kilicdaroglu for stepping on a prayer mat, on which he commented, “”40 days are left, and in the course of these 40 days, some may continue to step on prayer rugs with their shoes on. That’s because they are receiving instructions from Pennsylvania. This is something they consider legitimate, they believe they are allowed to do it.” Erdogan also made sure to accuse Kilicdaroglu of treason and duplicity, describing him as aligned with “coup plotters and global imperialists.”
Erdogan’s accusations continued, when on May 8, during an election conference in Istanbul, he accused Kilicdaroglu of “drunkenness”, adding, “My people will not allow drunks and absentees to attract people’s attention. Mr. Kamal, you can drink entire barrels [of wine], nothing will heal you.” He also accused the opposition of supporting LGBTs, stating that, “The AKP and other parties in our coalition will never support LGBTs because family is sacred to us.”
- Defaming Erdogan and his allies: The opposition, in turn, also smeared President Erdogan describing him as an autocrat, showing videos broadcast by a former Erdogan ally on May 7, in which he revealed Erdogan profiteering as Prime Minister, gaining USD1 billion from a 2007 tender for the Anatolia Airport in southern Turkey.
The accusation was not the first of its kind. On May 2, Kilicdaroglu accused Erdogan of launching into hyperbole, and that he could not protect the country from terrorists. The opposition also accused the Turkish president of destroying the economy by insisting on maintaining a monetary policy and interfering in the central bank’s work.
In parallel, the opposition exploited the catastrophic earthquake last February 6 to intensify pressure on the ruling coalition. Opposition criticized the conduct of rescue operations, the government’s initial absence from the disaster field, and demanded the government disclose its earthquake tax spending, as well as investigate construction contractors over the buildings that collapsed in the earthquake.
- Increased electoral violence: Electoral polarization reached an unprecedented level between the president’s supporters and opposition both inside Turkey, and in voting centers abroad. Polling stations in Amsterdam saw a physical altercation that required the intervention of the Dutch police. An electoral conference organized by the opposition in the Istanbul neighbourhood of Arzorum was also attacked on May 7, in the presence of Ekrem Imamoglu, where unidentified people threw stones at him and opposition supporters. The incident was viewed by the opposition as a provocation by supporters of the Turkish president that only served to indicate the waning strength of the ruling coalition.
Electoral violence peaked over the past three months. Attacks on the opposition’s or the ruling coalition’s party headquarters added to the fears of electoral bases, and increased political polarization in the face of escalating threats and counter-threats to crush adversaries. While the opposition has promised to prosecute Erdogan and his inner circle of power, the president’s supporters threatened Kurdish citizens when they supported Kilicdaroglu.
- Burgeoning campaign spending: According to estimates, Turkey’s current elections have reached an unprecedented level of campaign spending as contenders push to win the presidency and parliament. As the Turkish President expanded his campaign trail, he also decided to raise wages by about 50 percent, in addition to reducing taxes and deferring citizens’ bank payments. For its part, the opposition intensified mass conferences and meetings in various regions of the country.
- Eliminating religious and sectarian affiliations: For the first time in Turkish elections, primary sectoral and religious were put aside. This is reflected in the announcement by the opposition candidate that he belonged to the Alawi community, where he broadcast a video stating, “I am Alawi”. He also broadcast another video addressing the Kurds, stating that, “they are part of this homeland, and no one has the right to say that they are terrorists.” In contrast, to win votes from conservative and religious blocs, the AKP that voting for the opposition was an act of religious heresy. Others also considered that support for the opposition translates into support for PKK terrorism. These claims escalated after the People’s Democratic Party (HDP) formally declared that the Kurdish political community is voting for the Table of Six candidate.
In conclusion, it can be said that as May 14 elections approach, polarization between the ruling coalition and the Table of Six will increase, especially as the offensive and counter-offensive between President Erdogan and his opponents continues.