The Arab World Center for Research and Advanced Studies organized a panel discussion on October 26^th to discuss the strategic transformations on the global stage and their repercussions on the Middle East. The center hosted Ambassador Mohamed Anis Salem as a keynote speaker, as well as a number of experts and researchers, including Dr. Muhammad Ezz Al-Arab, Dr. Muhammad Abbas Nagy, Mr. Ahmed Eleiba, Mr. Ahmed Kamel El Beheiry, Mr. Amr Abdel-Atty, and Mr. Mohamed Bassyouni.

Global Hierarchy

Ambassador Mohamed Anis Salem began by emphasizing the need to deal with developments from a global, not an international, perspective, because the former takes into account non-state actors, not just state interactions. Moreover, the concept of a hierarchical international system must be reconsidered, as this hierarchical order differs in relation to different aspects of power. For example, the hierarchy of the international system in military terms is different than the order in terms of economic power.

In this context, ambassador Salem noted that the United States remains at the top of the international system and possesses great diversity in its military and economic sources of strength, in addition to the advantages of its the leadership role. It is likely that this American supremacy will continue until at least 2050, while China, which falls in second place in the international system, will continue to work on strengthening its position and influence within that system.

In the hierarchy below China, comes a group of countries that are considered major powers, and have acquired a special status in the international system due to the advantages they enjoy in geographic, demographic, economic, and military terms. This group includes Russia, the European Union, India, Brazil, and Japan. Britain and France have the added advantage of their historical status.  At the same time, there is a group of medium-sized countries that are actively seeking to acquire status and influence on the regional level.

Competitive Interdependence

Ambassador Salem explained that the growing competition between the US and China has become a defining characteristic of the global system. Over the past decade, it has become a tenet of US grand strategy to concentrate on US-China competition, as the rise of China as a great power threatens to make this the “Chinese Century”, especially in view of domestic political, economic and social issues that are undermining US power. 

Ambassador Salem added that this has led to the emergence of two trends within the American circles, one which sees China as the main adversary, which was reflected in the Trump administration’s national security strategy, and a second which has more isolationist tendencies and advocates the importance of domestic issues. This trend was also reflected in Trump’s “America First” slogan, and has gained more momentum due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on American society.

It is likely, according to ambassador Salem, that US-Chinese relations in the near future will be dominated by a model of “competitive interdependence”. which differs greatly from the model of relations the US and the USSR during the cold war. The competitive interdependence model includes elements of both confrontation and interdependence between the two powers. For example, there is a significant level of commercial exchange between the two countries, as well as a high level of Chinese investments in the US as well as American investments in China. There can be cooperation between the two countries in the areas of scientific research and innovation. It is worth noting that there are about 370,000 Chinese students studying in the United States.

Impact on the Middle East

Ambassador Salem touched on the repercussions of the current global transformations on the Middle East. Presently, the United States appears more interested in competing with China and moving away from the Middle East. This can play out in the region in a number of different ways, including:

1. Reducing US military presence in the region. This includes the withdrawal of forces from both Iraq and Syria and a reduction of the forces in the Gulf.  The decision to withdraw Patriot missile batteries from Saudi Arabia may be a step in this direction.
   
2. Avoiding costly political endeavors, whether they are related to solving long-term problems, such as the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, or that require direct US military presence.
   
3. Burden Sharing, the US is likely to continue encouraging NATO and EU countries to assume responsibilities regarding certain issues, such as Libya, and regions, such as North Africa, as well as the Gulf and East Africa.
   
4. Containing Iran, by reviving the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, reducing Arab-Iranian tension, and reducing US military moves that could raise Tehran’s concerns.
   
5. Re-focusing the counter-terrorism strategy, which will become focused on data collection and analysis, and identifying high-value targets, which would then be dealt with through special operations and drone attacks in cooperation with regional actors.
   
6. A Focus on bilateral cooperation, in view of the failure to formulate a regional strategic alliance between regional or Arab states, the US will coordinate with regional countries on a bilateral basis, as each country is active in or concerned with a particular issue or domain.
   
7. A pragmatic, flexible approach to Middle East countries, the US is likely to adopt a balanced approach, balancing the common interests regional countries share with the United States, with US concerns regarding domestic reforms and human rights conditions in the countries of the Middle East.
   
8. Curbing Chinese expansions in the region, if the competitive aspect of US-China relations escalates, the US is likely to seek to push-back China’s footprint in the region, especially in the field of armaments, projects related to China’s Belt and Road strategy, infrastructure projects, and the various tools on which Chinese foreign policy depends.
   

Ambassador Salem concluded that Arab countries must formulate a clear vision and strategy for Arab security, encompassing all regions, and taking into account all regional threats. This strategy should also take into account and accurately assess current global transformations, to enable Arab countries to adapt to them and to the US withdrawal from the region and its repercussions.