On December 27th 2021, the Arab World Centre for Research and Advanced Studies organized a discussion panel in Cairo on the future of the Arab world in a changing region, and how to manage the relationship between Arab states and other regional powers. The Centre hosted former Egyptian Minister for Foreign Affairs and former Secretary General of the Arab League, Ambassador Amr Moussa as the keynote speaker. Also participating were the former Egyptian Minister Minister for Foreign Affairs Ambassador Mohamed Al-Arabi, Ambassador Mohamed Anis Salim, and Dr. Ibrahim Awad, Professor of Public Policy at the American University in Cairo. A number of experts and researchers also participated in the session, including Dr. Mohamed Ezz Al Arab, Dr. Mohamed Abbas Nagi, Mr. Amr Abdal Atty, Mr. Mohamed Bassiouni and Mr. Mohamed Al Fiqi.
Opening Remarks
Mr. Amr Moussa began the session by emphasizing the urgent need to base the future outlook for Arab states on current realities, the nature of the current crises in the region, as well as taking into account regional forces who aspire to play a key role in regional politics. It should be pointed out that a regional role is predicated on a number of elements, including but not limited to hard power (military force in particular). The soft power of a state and its ability to affect the regional arena through cultural influence or inspirational leadership is also an important factor.
Mr. Moussa added that historically, Egypt has manifested soft power, which had a great deal of influence, through its diverse cultural, artistic and educational models. This contributed in one way or another to promoting an Egyptian regional role. Currently, Egypt needs to enhance its soft power and give it more momentum, in order to strengthen its role regionally. In recent years, some regional countries, like Saudi Arabia, have devoted resources to enhancing their soft power, by focusing on new policies of cultural and social openness, organizing various artistic and cultural events, and attracting artists from different countries.
According to Mr. Moussa, major powers in the international system also do not rely on hard power only. The US has achieved its global status primarily because of its soft power , which allowed it to become an inspiring model for many societies and individuals around the world, through American icons such as Harvard University, Hollywood, and NASA. China is also trying to promote its global image by finding grounds for win-win stances with other countries, particularly through its Belt and Road initiative. Beijing has promoted the initiative from the perspective of mutual gain with states who participate in the initiative’s projects.
Changing Concepts
Mr. Amr Moussa pointed out that some concepts needed to be revisited, first and foremost the concept of regional Arab security. Currently, it’s hard to talk about a single concept of Arab security, in view of the different view Arab states have regarding their security and the primary sources threatening it. Speaking of Arab national security presupposes Arab agreement regarding threats, but in the past few decades, there have been differences in the perceptions of Arab ruling elites in this respect. Some states perceive Israel as the primary threat, while others perceive it to be Iran, not to mention threats from other regional forces such as Turkey. In this context, it can be said that there are multiple conceptions of Arab national security. Accordingly, Mr. Amr Moussa posits that each state should prioritize its own concept of security. For example, Egyptian national security is faced with threats to the west, where the situation in Libya remains tenuous; as well as terrorist threats from the east; and in the south, the Ethiopian Renaissance Dam endangers Egypt’s share of the Nile waters.
Mr. Moussa also pointed out that the foreign policy of each state should also be predicated on its own national interests. Relations between states should also be based on mutual interests between them. Moreover, it is important for states to adopt versatile foreign policies that address different issues in terms of national interest, as opposed to being defined by ideologies that belong to a different historical era.
Confronting Threats
Mr. Amr Moussa then moved to outline a number of means with which to confront threats to the Arab region, including:
Reevaluating the Arab League: Over the past years, the Arab League has experienced problems that have undermined public confidence in the institution. There are also many restrictions on the League’s capacity to function. Therefore, there is dire need to develop and improve the Arab League, particularly as other international organizations (such as the UN and EU) are also evolving to remain relevant and effective in today’s political context.
Reviving the notion of an “Arab neighbourhood”: This proposal was was previously suggested by Mr. Moussa during his tenure as Secretary General of the Arab League. The proposal suggests inviting a number of neighboring states to join the Arab League in some form, to create a forum in which these countries to establish common interests and resolve differences. Membership of neighboring countries could be restricted to states who are ideologically close to their Arab counterparts, so that they may play a role in ensuring peace and stability in the region.
In this context, Mr. Moussa stressed the need to open channels of dialogue and communication with states that threaten the interests and security of the Arab region, particularly Iran, in order to have a serious dialogue regarding its policies in the region. Israel is also a party in the region, with which there should be channels of communication, which also necessitates finding a resolution for the Palestinian crisis. Palestinians on their part need to transcend their own differences and divisions, as this has an adverse affect on their negotiating power and allows Israel to continue to justify its behavior.
Adopting a functional approach to Arab cooperation: This is the approach adopted for example by the EU, and rests on establishing an economic base on which to build Arab economic and commercial cooperation. Such a model can attract different regional countries, and ease existing tensions and conflicts. Energy supplies, including natural gas or electricity, could also serve to motivate Arab economic cooperation.
Anticipating future structural change in the Arab world: In concurrence with the session’s attendees, Mr. Amr Moussa confirmed the need to formulate frameworks that would allow Arab States to ascertain and confront future threats and challenges. Ambassador Mohamed Anis Salim added that there was a need to monitor important changes, such as the region’s demographics, the rapid growth in Arab population, the rising percentage of youth, as well as the approaching post-petroleum era. Moreover, the movement of the center of global power from the West to the East necessitates a re-evaluation of the relative strength and influence of world powers. Attention must be paid to the rise of China, which as a global power relies on establishing economic ties in international relations. All these developments require that Arab States reassess their current positions and develop approaches to deal with future issues.