On March 2nd , 2022, the Arab World Centre for Research and Advanced Studies organized a panel discussion on “The Effects of the Russian-Ukrainian Crisis on the Arab Region.” The Centre hosted Dr. Gamal Abdel Gawad, Consultant to Al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies as the keynote speaker. Panelists included Dr. Mohamed Ezz El Arab, Dr. Mohamed Abbas Nagy, Amr Abdel Atty, Dr. Hamdy Bashir, Karam Saeed, Mohamed El Feky, Haitham Emran, Mervat Zakaria and Yasmin Ayman.
The Russian-Ukrainian crisis is the world’s most significant event since the end of the Second World War, deriving its significance from its location in Europe, where no one had imagined a war breaking out. Indeed, it was widely perceived that this part of the world was exempt from war and conflict, as Europe is a center of progress, promoting values and principles across the world.
The Middle East is not exempt from the impact of this crisis, according to Dr Abdel Gawad, and it is unlikely that any country will come out of this conflict unscathed. The Middle East is geographically close to the Russian-Ukrainian crisis, whilst also facing crises of its own. Russia is one of the world’s most important energy producers, and there will therefore be inevitable ramifications on the energy market, impacting both energy exporters and importers in the Arab region.
The trajectory of the crisis, in Dr Abdel Gawad’s view, will be impacted by the personal nature of Russian President Vladimir Putin, who is unlikely accept defeat in Ukraine, as his reasoning does not follow the standard calculations of gains and losses. Despite the military defeat of Ukraine, Moscow is also undertaking losses. The crisis is expected to leave Russia drained for a long time. The benefits of any reforms led by Putin will be reversed as Russia is put to the test against the West, especially as problems have already surfaced in terms of performance and logistical support.
It remains unclear if Russian elites are endorsing Putin’s move. Will the capitalist elites of Russia who manage the country’s wealth and are a source of support for Putin be willing to have their money and assets frozen and give-up their luxurious lifestyle? It is likely the sanctions will impact the support of these elites. Another question of concern is are the military elites of Russia supporting this war? The Russian President’s questioning of the head of intelligence in a broadcast event implies that Putin is surrounding himself with followers, not advisers. This leaves open the question of whether these elites would instigate a coup and remove President Putin from the scene.
Dr Abdel Gawad reviewed some of the possible repercussions on the Arab region of a continuation of the Russian-Ukrainian crisis, which include:
An opportunity for energy exporters: The current crisis is an opportunity, given that any disruption in the supply of energy from Russia creates an opening for oil-exporting countries in the region. If Arab countries intervene to maintain the supply of energy in the market, the world will be appreciative of their stance, and higher energy prices will increase exporting states’ wealth. The crisis also provides a political opportunity to resolve disputes between oil-exporters and other countries of the world, such as Saudi Arabia and the United States where perhaps there can be a breakthrough that overcomes disagreements.
Investment in non-traditional energy sources: Concerns over energy security grow as the current crisis drives up energy prices, especially as doubts cloud the reliability of current energy sources in providing needed supplies at pivotal moments such as the Russian-Ukrainian crisis. These concerns prompted the accelerated investments in non-traditional energy sectors, especially as Europe no longer feels safe in its reliance on external sources of energy that can be used as leverage against them. This therefore reinforces the policy of oil-exporting countries to invest in and develop alternative sources of energy.
Pressures on oil-importing countries: The crisis will have a negative impact on energy-importing countries, in terms of high energy as well as high food prices, particularly cereals. These projected price spikes exacerbate current global inflation levels before the crisis. Only a few countries have managed to achieve a balance between their exports and imports of energy, such as Egypt, but its revenues from tourism will suffer as Russian and Ukrainian travel declines.
Potential social unrest: Rising energy and food prices will have repercussions in countries going through political crises. Tunisia, for example, is currently in a critical phase of political transition, with an active political community and strong parties that can rally public opinion. Lebanon is also going through its own turmoil with bleak possibility for any political salvation given the failure of state decision-making amidst dire economic conditions.
Humanitarian crises in conflict countries: The humanitarian conditions in Arab countries that have experienced armed conflict are likely to deteriorate further, especially in the absence of political change. Yemen, for example, will suffer severely, and Syria is poor and completely dependent on Russia. In the face of high prices, these countries will be in dire need of massive humanitarian assistance and substantial Arab solidarity.
Increased polarization : Arab countries experiencing instability and conflict are likely to experience further political polarization over the coming period due to the Russian-Ukrainian crisis, Russia being a party to all areas of Arab unrest. In Libya, Russia is sponsor to some of the main parties in conflict through military assistance. Libya is therefore likely to bear the burden of tense relations between Russia and the West. Russia could undermine any potential compromises in regional conflicts through depriving opposing parties of its support.
Concern for Syria: Russia is a main player in Syria. Although Russian intervention complicated the Syrian crisis, it had a more positive impact compared to Iran’s intervention and the proliferation of extremist groups. Whatever happens to Russia will be important to Syria. The relationship between Russia and Turkey, and its impact in Syria is also of concern, especially since the parties have an understanding on sharing influence. If the Ukrainian crisis strains Russia’s relations with Turkey, this could reverse previous agreements, leading to a wave migration to Europe. This is a potential card in Russia’s hands, with implications for a possible European split on the refugee crisis.
A slowdown in Iranian nuclear negotiations: The important question concerning Iranian nuclear negotiations for the Arab region is: does the Russian-Ukrainian crisis create an unfavorable environment? Although negotiations have progressed, and the West is eager to sign the agreement, there seems to be a desire to delay the completion of this resolution as it begs the important question of under which international order will Iran’s reintegration occur. Here, Iran’s financial empowerment will have potential implications on Russia’s upper hand in Syria, especially since it remains unknown if Russia will retreat from Syria, giving Iran greater leeway.
Dr. Abdel Gawad concluded by outlining possible scenarios for the future of the Ukrainian crisis and its implications for policy-making in the Arab region:
- The continuation of the Russian-Ukrainian crisis: If the crisis continues, there are those who speak of a renewed Cold War, widening the scope of both pressure and opportunity. Proceeding with caution and not engaging in this conflict, Arab states with strong links to the US, and ties to Russia will attempt to improve the scope of maneuverability and extract better. In the event of an extended conflict, most will have to make decisive choices and reformulate their foreign policy.
- Western victory: There is the lingering question, what if Russia is defeated? This begets a follow-up question: what if the West emerges victorious? If the West wins this war, it will tip the scales of Western power, and reinforce a great sense of solidarity and rapprochement amongst Western ranks. This would lead to a greater emphasis on Western values and stronger pressures on issues of world democracy and human rights.