The ongoing tension between Iran and Iraq concerning the security agreement can be better understood by considering several key factors. One of the most significant issues is the expiration of the deadline set by Iran, which was not met due to the failure to remove Iranian Kurdish armed groups from the northern border areas of Iraq. Iran is also dissatisfied with the security measures taken by Iraqi authorities to address this matter. Furthermore, the continuous threats from Iranian military officials towards Baghdad and the green light given for a media campaign against the performance of Iraqi agencies in handling this situation have only added to the strain.
Despite multiple visits by Iraqi and Iranian security officials, the most recent being the visit by Iraqi National Security Advisor Qasim Al-Araji on October 1st, where he met with the Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, Ali Akbar Ahmadiyan, the tension between the two parties remains unresolved. This is partly due to Iran’s insistence on the swift implementation of the security agreement signed between the two sides on March 19th of the previous year. Iran is deliberately limiting Iraq’s options in dealing with this issue, despite being aware of the challenges involved in dismantling the camps.
Multiple Motivations for Tension
The ongoing tension between Iran and Iraq concerning the security agreement can be attributed to several key factors, with the most prominent being:
- Expiration of the Deadline Without Achieving the Stipulated Goal: Iran had set a deadline for Iraq to dismantle the camps established by Iranian Kurdish armed groups in northern Iraq. This deadline was originally scheduled for September 19th of the previous year and was part of the demands outlined in the security agreement signed between the two countries on March 19th of the same year. During the visit of the former Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, Ali Shamkhani, to Baghdad, a six-month period was specified for the complete dismantling of these camps, the disarmament of their residents, and their relocation to other areas.
In this context, Iranian officials’ statements suggest that they believe Iraqi authorities did not take decisive action from the outset and that the six-month period provided ample time to adopt stronger and more serious implementation measures. On the other hand, Iraqi officials point out that the task is challenging for several reasons. This includes the difficulty of disarming these groups, some of which claim to possess only light weapons for self-defense. Furthermore, Iraqi authorities are cautious about provoking hostility with these groups, as doing so could potentially impact the overall security situation within Iraq in the near future.
- Disagreements on Security Measures: There appears to be a fundamental discord between Iran and Iraq concerning the security measures being implemented. The Iraqi authorities have publicly declared their intention to establish a security buffer zone extending about 100 kilometers into Iraqi territory along the border with Iran. This plan involves deploying Iraqi forces along the border and relocating Kurdish groups to five specific camps, effectively removing them from their original locations. On September 30th of the previous year, Iraqi Interior Minister Abdul Amir al-Shammari announced the successful removal of Iranian opposition forces from the border area, which is now under the control of Iraqi forces.
However, these measures do not align with Tehran’s expectations. Iran adopts a more rigorous stance in this context, insisting on the complete disarmament of these group members. Furthermore, Iran seeks the extradition of specific individuals accused of aiding in carrying out operations within its territory. This demand gains particular importance in light of the protests that unfolded in Iran since mid-September 2022, lasting for over five months. These protests were triggered by the tragic death of a Kurdish girl named Mahsa Amini, who suffered violence at the hands of morality police officers accusing her of non-compliance with hijab rules.
- Continued Iranian Military Threats: The expiration of the deadline without attaining the set objectives served as a catalyst for renewed tension between the two parties. This escalation was primarily driven by Iran’s renewed threats to launch military strikes within Iraq, targeting the aforementioned camps. On July 11th of the previous year, Iranian Chief of Staff Mohammad Bagheri issued a stern statement, expressing his expectations: “We hope the Iraqi government fulfills its responsibilities, but if this time passes and these groups remain armed or engage in any operations, it is certain that our actions against these groups will be repeated with even greater force.”
These threats significantly displeased the Iraqi government, prompting a “brief” visit by Iraqi Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein to Tehran on September 13th of the past year. During this visit, he made it a point to criticize the statements of Iranian military officials. He stated during his meeting with his Iranian counterpart, Hussein Amir-Abdollahian, “It is not reasonable for the relationship between the two countries to remain excellent while threatening Iraqi sovereignty and Iraqi Kurdistan with airstrikes or military campaigns.”
Furthermore, an Iraqi Kurdish delegation led by the head of the Iraqi Kurdistan National Union, Pavel Talabani, visited Tehran three days prior. During this visit, they met with the Chairman of the Iranian Shura Council, Mohammad Bagheri, and Foreign Minister Hussein Amir-Abdollahian. The discussions revolved around the security agreement and the Iraqi authorities’ capacity to execute the designated mission.
It appears that these diplomatic moves by the Iraqi side compelled Tehran to postpone its decision regarding military intervention in order to resolve the matter. This extension provides Baghdad with “another chance” to complete the mission. Nevertheless, this opportunity is short-lived, as emphasized once again by Iranian military officials. Chief of Staff Mohammad Bagheri reiterated his threats on September 23rd of the past year, stating, “Iran is granting the Kurdistan region and Iraq a few more days to disarm the Kurdish parties and expel them from all of Iraq.” He added, “The disarmament of these groups was intended to be completed by September 19th, but in practice, during the six-month deadline, these groups moved only slightly away from the borders.”
- Launching a Media Campaign Against Baghdad: It has become clear that Tehran has authorized media outlets to launch a vigorous critique of the actions taken by Iraqi authorities to implement the security agreement. This was particularly evident in a report published by the “Noor News” website, which is affiliated with the Supreme National Security Council, in September of the past year. In this report, the execution of some of the Iraqi authorities’ security commitments was labeled a “paradox,” indirectly suggesting that Iraq wasn’t fulfilling a sufficient number of measures as agreed upon with Iran.
Continued Pressure
While Iraqi authorities have taken various procedural steps to implement the security agreement with Iran, it’s possible that Iran may not find this satisfactory in the upcoming phase. Tehran might view the dismantling of the camps housing these groups, their disarmament, and relocation as just the initial stage. Following this, Iran will likely initiate another phase with the ultimate aim of expelling these groups entirely from Iraq, similar to what happened with the “Mujahideen-e Khalq” organization, which was compelled to leave Iraq for various European countries, especially Albania, in 2013.
In this context, a scenario similar to the one witnessed in Albania could repeat itself. Iran will commence monitoring and tracking these groups within Iraq, attempting to infiltrate their ranks and identify security vulnerabilities. This mirrors Iran’s approach in dealing with opposition groups in Albania, which led to Iran severing diplomatic ties with Albania on September 7, 2022, before eventually reaching security agreements with Tehran regarding the activities of these groups within Albania.