Recently, an escalation in the use of drones by armed factions, especially those loyal to Iran in the Middle East, has affected the security of Iraq and Syria and prolonged the conflict there. This has also led to an escalation of the confrontation between the US and Iran within the Arab region leading to increased instability. As for the impact of IS drones, it remains linked to two basic variables: security vigilance in the targeted areas, and international support for its attacks.
Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), colloquially known as drones, have ascended to a position of significant threat within the arsenal of terrorist organizations. This was exemplified by the Central Criminal Court in Iraq’s conviction of four individuals on November 27, implicated in the production of drones for the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), subsequently sentencing them to capital punishment. This development coincides with an escalation in assaults by armed factions, particularly those affiliated with Iran, targeting US military bases in the region utilizing similar methodologies. Moreover, seperate attacks have jeopardized crucial maritime routes in the Middle East. This raises the pertinent question of the potential extent to which militant groups might utilize drones in forthcoming phases of conflict.
Mounting fears
Terrorist factions have leveraged advancements in weaponry production and communication technologies to further their objectives, with a notable and growing reliance on unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in recent times. This trend has intensified the security issues associated with airspace protection, not only within the Arab territories and African offshoots of Takfiri groups but also within Western nations. These concerns persist, albeit with varying degrees and geographical distribution of the interests under threat. The following section provides a counterargument to this evidence:
1- The increasing attacks by factions affiliated with Iran and their impact on the Arab region: Armed factions in the Middle East, predominantly those affiliated with Tehran, constitute the majority of these threats. They strategically employ drone attacks against diverse American targets, leveraging the conflict in Gaza. Despite these threats’ persistent existence, they continue to profoundly influence the region’s stability. This analysis is conducted in Arabic, as follows:
A- Prolonging unrest in Iraq: Iranian military factions have reportedly launched numerous drone assaults on US forces stationed in Iraq and Syria, inflicting casualties among the troops, as per Pentagon disclosures. In retaliation, the US executed uncoordinated military offensives against multiple locations within Iraq, purportedly linked to groups under Tehran’s patronage. This unilateral action sparked outrage within the Baghdad administration, interpreting it as an infringement of their national sovereignty. Consequently, this could potentially exacerbate the diplomatic tensions between the two nations.
The prevailing circumstances present a potential risk to internal security via two distinct factors. The initial factor is contingent upon the precarious state of the government, which permits it to navigate the conflict with Washington without a tangible threat to its existence. Conversely, the second factor is associated with the sectarian composition of the Sudanese government’s ministers and the divergence in their perspectives. This factor also considers their capacity to harmonize national and international interests, inclusive of their ability to exert control over armed factions and avert the exploitation of the situation to propagate government violations in support of the Palestinian cause for political gain.
Consequently, the dependence of Iran-affiliated military factions on the utilization of drones launched from within Iraq against U.S. objectives, despite its framing within religious and nationalistic narratives to resonate with their adherents, poses a threat to the nation’s security. This could potentially exacerbate internal discord if the conflict remains unregulated.
B- Using Houthi drones to threaten navigation in Bab al-Mandab: While the assaults have predominantly targeted United States and Israeli vessels, the absence of reported damage to other entities does not preclude the potential economic repercussions for tanker operators primarily concerned with the stability and security of their chosen routes to safeguard their profits.
In a recent incident of this nature, the United States Central Military Command (Centcom) disclosed on November 30 that the destroyer Carney intercepted a drone, deployed by the Houthi faction from Yemen, in the southern Red Sea near the Bab al-Mandab Strait. This Strait holds unique strategic significance for regional nations, serving as the compulsory transit point for the majority of vessels utilizing the Suez Canal, which facilitates approximately 12% of global maritime trade volume.
C- Maintaining the conflict in Syria: Iran’s militarized groups persist in employing unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) to further their objectives, amidst the ongoing security and political instability in Syria. This is also seen as a mechanism to navigate the US-Iran conflict beyond their respective national boundaries. In a notable incident from mid-October, three UAVs targeted the Al-Tanf base, a stronghold of the International Coalition in Syria, causing only material damage. Subsequent media reports implicated the Iraqi Hezbollah Brigades in the incident. In retaliation, the United States added six leaders of these brigades to its terrorism list in November, a move seen as a response to the continued targeting of its military bases in the region.
In the execution of the scorched earth strategy in Iraq, United States military forces have been conducting operations against pro-Iranian factions within Syria as a countermeasure to attacks on their troops. In March of the previous year, brigades affiliated with Tehran launched an assault on a base housing coalition forces near Al-Hasakah in eastern Syria, resulting in the fatality of an American soldier and injuries to others. The United States retaliated with reciprocal military actions. This sequence of events underscores that Iran’s propensity to utilize its regional bases for conflict with Washington persisted prior to the Gaza War. However, this activity has escalated in an attempt to capitalize on the crisis and amplify the locations of American tension within the region.
The Deputy Special Envoy of the United Nations to Syria, Najat Rushdi, expressed her concern about the deteriorating situation in Syria, describing the escalation taking place in the country against the backdrop of the Gaza war as “playing with fire,” noting that the exchange of military targets between the US and Iranian-backed factions, ias well as Jihadi groups, heralds more unrest.
While Jordan was affected by weak control over Syrian airspace and the continued international desire to confuse the scene, it watered Last June, the Jordanian army intercepted a drone coming from Syria carrying drugs. It also announced its control of another drone coming from Syria carrying explosives and hand grenades.
2- The possibilities of ISIS employing drones: The recent ruling by the Iraqi judiciary has paved the way for dialogue concerning the potential ramifications of IS specifically leveraging this technology to further its objectives. The prevailing internal security conditions have facilitated opportunities for military and logistical support acquired by its members.
The emergence of ISIS has engendered security apprehensions about its drone usage. However, the organization has not yet proficiently advanced in this technological domain. The prospect of the organization utilizing this technology to advance international interests continues to be a dynamic factor in escalating these risks. This is particularly evident within its African affiliates, which exploit the declining security situation and pose a threat to regional economic interests.
3- ISIS’ threat of chemical drones in Europe: In September of the previous year, a judicial institution in Birmingham found Muhammad al-Bared, a 26-year-old doctoral candidate, guilty of fabricating a drone for ISIS to employ it in chemical assaults within Europe. This conviction suggests that ISIS retains the capacity to advance its technology in alignment with the security measures of the region it inhabits. Despite this, it continues to pose a significant threat to established Western interests in African regions with inadequate security provisions.
4- Carrying out assassinations between the two factions: Unmanned aerial vehicles, colloquially known as drones, have been extensively utilized in the neutralization of prominent figures within militant organizations. Notably, this includes the termination of Ayman al-Zawahiri, the figurehead of Al-Qaeda. Similarly, the United States employed this technology in the elimination of Qassem Soleimani, the commander of the Quds Force. However, concerns persist regarding the potential misuse of such weaponry to intimidate or eliminate political leaders and influential individuals. This was exemplified in the unsuccessful assassination attempt on Mustafa Al-Kadhimi, the former Prime Minister of Iraq, in November 2021.
Limited International Action
Global endorsement for the development and production of unmanned aerial vehicles intensifies their potential to induce security-compromising consequences. Consequently, mitigating the escalation of these impacts necessitates the redefining of international responsibilities towards strategic and economic interests. This includes de-escalation of regionally and globally instigated crises. Despite the persistent apprehensions regarding the adaptation of drones by extremist and Jihadi factions, these are contingent upon the military capabilities of the targeted region and the international investments associated with the targeted interests.