On February 2nd, 2022, the Arab World Centre for Research and Advanced Studies organized a panel discussion titled: The Arab Summit in Algiers: Challenges and Opportunities. The Centre hosted Ambassador Hany Khallaf, former Assistant Minister of Foreign Affairs, and Permanent Representative of Egypt in the League of Arab States as the panel’s keynote speaker. Also participating in the discussion were a number of experts on regional affairs, including Dr. Mohamed Ezz El Arab, Dr. Mohamed Abbas Nagi, Mr. Ahmed Eleiba, Mr. Amr Abdel Atty, Dr. Hamdy Bashir, Mr. Karam Saeed and Mr. Mohamed El-Feky.
Ambassador Hany Khalaf pointed out that the holding of the upcoming Arab summit in Algiers remains shrouded in ambiguity, in light of the lack of official statements on the issue. While the summits of 2020 and 2021 were postponed due to the Covid-19 pandemic, Ambassador Khallaf argues that should it be postpones again this year, it would be due to contentious issues among many Arab states. As the region endures multidimensional developments, and changes in the political landscape, the priorities of many member states of the Arab League are also changing.
The likelihood of holding the summit is predicated on a number of issues, including reaching agreement on a wide range of issues, as there is on average between 20 and 23 items on the agenda of an Arab League Summit. Making good use of the opportunities presented by the Summit depends on pre-summit preparations, agreement on a precise agenda, the level of consensus regarding the formulation of resolutions, and lastly, the host state’s ability to amass the largest number of monarchs and presidents to participate in the summit. Algeria is not likely to accept holding a virtual, videoconference, summit.
Changes on the Arab landscape
According to Ambassador Khallaf, Arab League member states have recently undergone numerous changes, which have not been addressed at an Arab summit, since non were held in 2020 or 2021. These changes include:
Escalating crises in some Arab states: Some Arab states are experiencing transformational changes, such as Lebanon, where dysfunction of the political process continues, and Saad El-Hariri recently announced his withdrawal from politics. Formal institutional processes have become paralysed, as Hezbollah continues to be an obstacle to government functions. The situation is exacerbated further by the collapse of the Lebanese banking system and the deterioration of the Lebanese Lira. In Sudan, protests continue amidst renewed border issues with Ethiopia due to the unsuccessful demarcation between the two states. In Tunisia, a ‘civil coup’ by President Kais Saied led to the dismissal of the cabinet, and the suspension of parliament, whereby the president now holds most authority in his hands, The Arab world remains divided between supporting and opposing his actions. Therefore, the domestic situation in various Arab countries act as a source of pressure on Arab states when it comes to deciding on participating in an Arab summit.
Acute threats from armed militias: There is an escalating threat of armed militias in the Arab World, which an Arab summit would be forced to address. Most recently for example, direct rocket attacks by the Houthis targeted strategically sensitive sites in the UAE, as well as Saudi Arabia. The Houthis also pose a threat in Yemen where they target the oil- and gas-rich city of Marib, in parallel to attempts to gain the support of tribal leaders. If Marib falls, it could undermine the internationally recognized Yemeni government’s legitimacy, and contribute to major financial gain by the Houthis, who would benefit from oil revenues.
Intractable conflicts in several Arab countries: This is clearly the case in Libya, where the postponement of elections raised many questions, in the absence of adequate justifications. This occurred in the context of a complex political landscape, a large number of candidates for presidency, and the announced candidacy of Seif al-Islam Gaddafi. In addition, there is international competition for influence in Libya, which has led to the continued presence of foreign mercenaries and armed militias. There is a need for the Arab League to approach the Libyan crisis with sensitivity, and to issue a non-binding statement of recommendations that recognizes that decisions are up to the Libyan people.
Differences regarding Syria: There is disagreement among member states over lifting the suspension of Syria’s membership in the League. Some states call for the immediate reinstatement of Syria’s membership, and others oppose it. The issue could remain unresolved for a while, if agreement is not reached. However, an approach could be found through linking the lifting of suspension to the implementation of the Syrian regime of political and humanitarian reforms. This can be stipulated in the draft resolution regarding Syria.
Receding interest in the Palestinian issue: There is a problem in the Arab League’s engagement with the Palestinian question, in terms of diversifying its approach and putting forth suggestions for resolving the conflict, in view of Israel’s refusal to enter into any negotiations to resolve the issue. However, there are new variables at play, including the events of Sheikh Jarrah, solidarity among Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza against Israel’s practices, as well as Israeli strikes on Gaza for the fourth time in ten years.
Efforts by Arab states to exercise a regional role: Despite the challenges facing Algeria, including confronting domestic terrorist activities and threats from neighbouring countries such as Mali and Libya, it has been making efforts to play a regional role, in addition to seeking reconciliation among Palestinian factions. The Algerian Minister for Foreign Affairs also spoke of an interest in developing the organization of League of Arab States, although he did not provide precise proposals.
De-escalation as a feature of Arab foreign policy: There is a trend towards de-escalation in the region, exemplified by the gradual Iraqi-Saudi rapprochement, and the declaration by Baghdad of its willingness to sponsor a Saudi Iranian dialogue, especially since Iraq needs broad Arab support for the reconstruction of areas that were previously under ISIS control. These trends in Iraq are driven by the shift in government from a narrow doctrinal approach to a broader national orientation, although repeated violence targeting the political leaders, including the attempted assassination of Prime Minister Mustafa Kazemi, cannot be ignored. One must also take note of de-escalation in Arab and Turkish relations, for various reasons, both domestic and regional.
Proposals
Ambassador Hany Khalaf proposed the following suggestions for future Arab summits:
Need for comprehensive approaches: It is important to include political, economic, legal and humanitarian considerations when shaping policies and positions, and to delineate the extent to which foreign influences impose on national and domestic considerations. It is also important to recognize the different impact of using different processes, such as consensus and majority voting, on the effectiveness of outcomes and decisions.
Empowering civil society: It is important to empower civil society organizations across various fields, and to examine how human rights and public freedoms should be dealt with in the resolutions of Arab Summits, without impairing the principles of sovereignty and national independence.
Better integration of Arab action: There should be better integration between role of the Secretariat and the Secretary-General of the Arab League on the one hand, and the role of member states on the other. Attention must be given to the selection of Arab envoys delegated to deal with regional crises, defining their respective roles precisely, and implementing full coordination with United Nations envoys.
Defining priorities: A decision must be made regarding what the Arab League should prioritize: reforming its institutional structure , or settling disputes and clearing the air between the members states. This is especially important in light of escalating discord between member states, and the inability of the League to mitigate them.
In conclusion, Ambassador Hany Khallaf believes that there must be a concerted will to reform the Arab League, which he does not perceive to exist at the present time, given that some states regard the Arab League as accost that has few benefits. There is a tendency towards working in smaller circles, in temporary frameworks, seeking to establish reforms in a specific area, within a limited number of states. The revitalization of the Arab League’s role is also dependent on the personality of the Secretary-General, and the extent to which he is well received by member states. This is reflected in his ability to deescalate tensions between Arab states and achieve conflict resolution.