Recent clashes in Ankara between Turkish citizens and Syrian refugees have put the issue of Syrian refugees in Turkey in focus once again. Opposition in Turkey has grown over the past few years to the presence of Syrian refugees. This appears related to economic factors, with a growing number of Turkish citizens expressing the opinion that Syrian refugees deprive them of job opportunities, in the context of a general economic downturn. Moreover, the regime’s growing involvement in Syria, and some indication the government is considering granting Turkish citizenship to some Syrian refugees, has led to criticism of the government and its policies regarding this issue.

Growing tensions

According to local media reports, on August 11^th angry Turkish citizens smashed cars and shops belonging to Syrian refugees in Ankara, leading Turkish security forces to intervene. It was later announced that a number of individuals suspected of encouraging or participating in the attack on Syrian shops had been arrested. In a statement, Turkish police announced :“We have identified and arrested 76 people who spread false information on social networks for the purposes of provoking or participating in these attacks.”

The incident reflected the growing resentment within Turkish society towards the presence of Syrian refugees. Several opinion polls over the past years have revealed increasing Turkish societal rejection of the presence of Syrian refugees, especially with estimates putting the current number of refugees at four million. A poll conducted by the Turkish Studies Center at Kadir Has University revealed 67% of those polled were against hosting Syrian refugees in 2019, as opposed to just 57% in 2016. It appears this figure has not declined much in 2020 and 2021, especially with worsening economic conditions in Turkey, as well as the atmosphere of political polarization.

This public sentiment has translated to multiple incidents of violence. Perhaps the most prominent incident in this respect was the suicide of a Syrian child, Wael Al-Saud, in October 2019, after being bullied by Turkish students at school because he was Syrian. A Syrian youth Ali Al-Asani was killed in a confrontation with Turkish police in April 2020, as he fled for fear of being fined for violating COVID-19 restrictions. In September 2020, Syrian youth Ayman Hamami was killed in the Turkish state of Samsun during a quarrel with a group of locals, with some Turkish media describing the crime as “racism”. A month later, Syrian Altaf Wael Mansour was killed by a group of Turks in Konya Province.

Main catalysts

The presence of Syrian refugees in Turkey appears to be driving the escalation of societal and political tension. This is linked to a number of factors, including: 

1. The Turkish regime’s stance: This has played a role in perpetuating negative societal attitudes towards the presence of Syrian refugees. Officials have not taken into account the sensitive nature of this issue for Turkish society, making occasional statements about the possibility of granting Turkish citizenship to refugees. When President Recep Tayyip Erdogan raised the possibility of Syrian refugees being granted Turkish citizenship in July 2016, he was met with widespread opposition even among his supporters. Although Erdogan has backed down from this, he has not completely abandoned the idea of ​​citizenship. Instead, his government has focused on providing citizenship, in limited numbers, to Syrians with educational, commercial, or professional qualifications of value to Turkish society. According to Turkish Interior Minister Suleyman Soylu, 76,443 Syrians – about 36,000 adults and their children – had obtained Turkish citizenship by early 2019.
   
   Moreover, Turkish military intervention in northeastern Syria has led to an increase in societal dissatisfaction with the regime’s policies on the issue, as many feel the intervention involves additional costs that further burden the Turkish economy, which is already suffering. It can also be argued that the Turkish government’s use of refugees  as a means of pressuring and bargaining with European countries has established a mental image of refugees in Turkish society as merely a political tool for the ruling regime.
   
2. Political polarization between the government and opposition: The refugee issue has become a point of contention between the government and the opposition. On July 22^nd, the issue once more rose to the surface, when the head of the Republican People’s Party Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, announced his intention to deport Syrians to their country if his party won the elections in 2023. President Erdogan responded saying he would not allow this, stating: “He (Kılıçdaroğlu) says I will deport them, as long as we are in power in this country, we will not throw the servants of God who have taken refuge with us into the arms of the killers,” adding, “I say it clearly, they took refuge with us and took shelter with us, and we cannot tell them to go back to where they came from, it cannot be done if it is not voluntary.”
   
   It is of note that the regime tried to hold the opposition responsible for the recent violence Ankara, ignoring the root causes of the issue. In an expression of the regime’s stance, Yassin Aktay, advisor to the President of the Justice and Development Party,  published an article on the Al-Jazeera Net website, August 16^th , entitled “Do the Turks really hate refugees?” In this article, Aktay sought to hold the Turkish opposition responsible for the unrest in Ankara, while avoiding analyzing the various aspects of rising societal resentment towards the refugees and the regime’s role in it.
   
3. Economic downturn: Economic conditions in Turkey have exacerbated societal discontent with refugees. On August 2, the Turkish Ministry of Trade revealed that the trade balance deficit increased by 52.4% on an annual basis in July to USD4.309 billion. This was paralleled by the decline in incoming tourism during the first half of this year to 4.066 million tourists, from 12.76 million in the first half of 2019. The inflation rate also reached 18.95% in July, as the lira continued its decline, reaching 558.8 liras per dollar at the beginning of August.
   

Perceived threat of refugees: Some segments of Turkish society believe Syrian refugees represent a security and economic threat. On the security front, this belief increased after Turkish cities were subjected to terrorist attacks in recent years, leading Turks to increasingly associate refugees with violence. The influx of refugees has come to be viewed as an indication that Turkey has lost control of its borders, allowing the infiltration of terrorist elements. For example, the terrorist who carried out a suicide bombing in the square of the Sultanahmet tourist district in Istanbul in January 2016, entered Turkey among a group of  Syrian refugees .

Meanwhile on the economic front, the spread of Syrian refugees in different regions of Turkey has increased frictions with locals over economic opportunities. Many Turkish citizens, especially those who are less qualified and work informally, face stiff competition for work. In their view, the large presence of Syrians imposed a zero-sum dynamic, forcing them to compete for a limited number of jobs or accept lower wages.

The risk of social friction is particularly high in low-income urban areas with other marginalized minorities, such as the Kurds. The space that was mostly occupied by Kurds who migrated from the southeast to major cities to work in the informal sector is now occupied by Syrians who accept lower salaries. With the long-standing grievances that Kurds have toward the Turkish regime, resentment based on the perception that Syrians benefit from more public assistance and greater social acceptance has multiplied. Employers are increasingly relying on Syrian workers at the expense of Turkish citizens of Kurdish origin. In 2018, statistics estimated Syrian workers in the region comprise about 70% of the total workforce, leading to numerous clashes between the two sides. This ultimately indicates that the refugee issue may worsen in Turkey over the coming period.