Pakistan has recently shown interest in raising the level of bilateral relations with Turkiye, especially on the economic level. This was reflected in the visit of the new Prime Minister of Pakistan, Shehbaz Sharif, to Turkey from 1 to 3 June, in which he was accompanied by a predominantly economic delegation to participate in the Turkey-Pakistan Business Forum. On its part, Turkiye sees several venues of cooperation that could increase in the volume of trade between the two countries from USD 1 billion to USD 5 billion. Ankara views its relationship with Pakistan as stable and solid, and therefore relations will continue to be close despite the departure from power of the previous prime minister, Imran Khan, who was a close friend and ally to President Erdogan. On the Pakistani side, the new government awards the relationship with Ankara special priority, particularly as Turkiye’s support of Pakistan in the Kashmir crisis provided the Sharif government a much-needed political boost.

A number of variables have paved the way for increasing closeness between Ankara and the government of Shehbaz Sharif, including:

Acceptance in Ankara of the new government: Ankara chose to interpret the shifting political landscape in Pakistan, after Parliament’s April 9^th impeachment of its trusted ally Imran Khan, and accession of opposition leader Shehbaz Sharif to power, as a victory for democratic practice in Pakistan. Ankara’s realist stance facilitated continued cooperation between the two countries on issues of mutual interest. Turkiye was one of the most important countries  indicating support and willingness to cooperate with the government of Shehbaz Sharif. President Erdogan called to congratulating the new Prime Minister of Pakistan on April 12^th, expressing certitude that bilateral ties would become more solid under the new government.

Sharif’s embrace of bilateral relations: Sharif’s statements on June 2^nd regarding Turkiye’s support of Pakistan and his keenness to consolidate the relationship, describing Ankara as a “second home” , helped create an environment  conducive to strengthening the bilateral relationship. He also expressed his appreciation for Turkish elites of all political persuasions.

It should be noted that Sharif’s positive statements about Turkey are not the first of their kind. On May 20^th, during the ceremony launching the third  military ship produced in the context of a project of cooperation between  the Turkish Ministry of Defense and  the Pakistani Navy, Sharif praised President Erdogan, describing him as a “big brother, friend, and great supporter of the Pakistani cause.” Furthermore, in his first address to Parliament, Sharif highlighted the good relations with Turkiye and the Arab Gulf states, and announced his intention to foster commercial and political relations with these countries in the future.

 Shehbaz Sharif enjoys a positive image in Turkiye, as he expressed supported to  the regime with respect to the failed coup attempt in mid-2016. He also shut down all Gulen-affiliated schools in Punjab province when he headed its local government, and was known to try to replicate the Turkish model of development there, involving Turkish companies in local projects.

Support on important issues: Ankara and Islamabad have signaled strengthening ties by expressing support for issues of importance. For example, Sharif declared, on the eve of his visit to Turkiye, his country’s support for the cause of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus and the legitimate demands of its inhabitants for independence. On its part, Ankara affirmed its rejection of Indian measures in Kashmir, annulling its autonomous status, and undertaking radical changes in the Muslim-majority region with the aim of more closely integrating it with the Indian system, which have in Ankara’s view led to the further deterioration of conditions in Kashmir.

It can be argued that Turkiye  and Pakistan both have strong motivating factors to strengthen bilateral relations, which include: 

Strengthening economic cooperation: Pakistan and Turkiye believe the trade cooperation between them provides a competitive advantage for both, especially in light of the reluctance of a significant number of regional and international powers to engage in economic investments in Ankara and Islamabad due to political tensions and the depreciation of their currency. This explains Turkey and Pakistan’s efforts to regularly hold the Turkish-Pakistani Business Forum, as well as raising the level of trade between them, which reached around USD 1 billion dollars by the end of 2020.

In the context of providing opportunities for businessmen from the two countries to benefit from mutual opportunities, on June 2^nd, the two countries signed seven agreements in various fields. It is of note that the volume of Turkish direct investments in Pakistan amounts to around USD 1 billion dollars, in addition to the participation of Turkish companies in nearly 71 projects worth USD 3.5 billion over the past twenty years in Pakistan. Pakistani investments in Turkey amounted to nearly USD 691 million.

Expanding defense cooperation: Military cooperation is the most prominent demonstration of the strength of the relationship between Ankara and Islamabad. Security is one of the main determinants of Ankara’s approach to deepening cooperation with Pakistan, and the latter has become one of the most important recipients of weapons and defense systems produced by Turkish companies. Between 2016 and 2019, the value of Turkish arms exports to the Pakistani army reached USD 112 million. In 2018, the two countries signed the largest military deal, worth USD 1 billion, under which Turkiye will export to the Pakistani army 30 T-129 Atak helicopters and four warships within the Milgam project.

The Turkish Defense Minister revealed Ankara’s keenness to develop defense relations with Pakistan during his visit to Pakistan on May 21^st. Turkey will participate in Pakistan’s International Defense Exhibition and Seminar (IDEAS) from 15 to 19 November. The two countries also conducted several joint training programs and exercises, in addition to deepening cooperation in nuclear technology programs.

Turkiye’s warm welcome of Sharif reveals its desire to maintain good relations with Pakistan’s  military establishment. Sharif, unlike Khan, has maintained a friendly relationship with the Pakistani army, which continues to hold control over the country’s most sensitive structures, and with which Ankara has vital interests, especially in the field of defense exports.

Promoting Turkish influence: It is no secret that building friendly relations with Pakistan also serves Turkiye’s strategic interests on the Asian continent, where it hopes to achieve greater influence through close ties with Islamabad. Turkey wishes to consolidate a position for itself in Afghanistan, for which it needs the cooperation of Pakistan, and its significant influence on the Taliban. Strong relations with Pakistan could also help Turkiye deflect international and regional pressures it faces in its Asian areas of influence.

The India factor: The tension in Pakistani Indian relations may play a role in determining the patterns of interactions between Pakistan and Turkey, for several reasons. The tension between New Delhi and Islamabad, motivates the latter it to strengthen its alliances with Islamic regional powers to confront Indian threats in Jammu and Kashmir. The prominent stance Turkiye has taken against  Indian policies towards against the Muslims in the Kashmir region is an important boost to Pakistan which is seeking to undermine Indian control there. Pakistan stands to benefit from Ankara’s use of its influence, as a member of NATO and a number of other regional and international organizations, in supporters of Pakistan on the Kashmir issue. Evidence indicates that some Asian countries and actors with ties to Turkey have opposed Indian interventions in Jammu and Kashmir.

It can be argued that Sharif’s recent visit to Turkiye reveals the two countries’ wish to accelerate the process of strengthening  bilateral ties, which would serve Turkiye’s strategic interests in expanding its presence on the Asian continent, and advancing its military exports to Pakistan, as well as the interests of the Sharif government in expanding its foreign relations and consolidating its position domestically. Ankara’s successes in overcoming tensions with the Gulf countries will further facilitate Turkish-Pakistani cooperation, as Gulf countries have strategic relations with Islamabad. Moreover, Sharif is known to be inspired by the Turkish model of development, and this provides a further incentive to strengthen his countries’ ties with Turkiye.