ISIS delayed announcing who its new leader would be, with the announcement made nearly 35 days after the killing of Abu Ibrahim Al-Hashemi Al-Qurashi in an American operation on February 3rd, 2022. The announcement identified the new leader only by his alias, Abu al-Hassan al-Hashimi al-Qurashi, without revealing his true identity, in keeping with the strategy ISIS has adopted in this respect. It can be argued that the announcement, as compared to the announcement of his predecessor Abu Ibrahim in 2019, reflects a sense of crisis. The group’s new media spokesman, Abu Omar al-Muhajir, expressed enthusiasm regarding the new appointment, and sought to calm the group’s members, indicating that he was in the company of the new leader, and affirmed the continuation of the group’s strategy in targeting prisons. There are various explanations for the delay in ISIS’ announcement of its new leader, including the possibility of a dispute over the candidate, structural changes in the organizational framework, the difficulty of organizing meetings between ISIS leaders, and the introduction of more complex security measures to prevent targeting the new leader. ISIS sought to preempt attempts to move the central command headquarters out of Iraq and Syria, conferring legitimacy on the new leader by indicating he is a long-time leading member, who participated in armed action against US forces in Iraq since 2003.
US President Joe Biden had announced that US forces successfully killed the previous ISIS leader, known as Abu Ibrahim Al-Hashemi Al-Qurashi, on February 3rd in Idlib, northern Syria. The group itself announced the killing and the inauguration of its new leader, Abu al-Hassan al-Hashimi al-Qurashi, on March 10th, in an audio recording by new spokesman Abu Omar al-Muhajir. Some Iraqi and Western analyses indicate that the new leader of ISIS is Juma Awad al-Badri, brother of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, who was head of the organization’s Shura Council.
An analysis of the statement by the group’s new spokesman provides a number of indications on conditions within ISIS, including:
A sense of internal crisis: The announcement by the new spokesman was long in comparison to the announcement following the death of Baghdadi in 2019, which was less than 8 minutes long, and focused on providing basic details regarding the choice of his successor, Abu Ibrahim al-Hashimi. In contrast, the new media spokesperson exhorted the various divisions of the organization, more than once, to pledge their allegiance to the new leader. The speech was dominated by the use of rousing discourse and poetry, which indicates the need to reassure the various branches of the group’s cohesion at the level of the central command, especially after the long delay in announcing the new leader.
Reluctance to reveal new leader’s identity: ISIS is continuing a trend of not revealing the identity of its leaders, which it began with its previous leader, Abu Ibrahim al-Hashemi. Muhajir’s statement emphasized this, and attempted to justify it, by calling on “Muslims everywhere to pledge allegiance to the Commander of the Faithful and the Caliph of Muslims”, in view of his moral attributes. He declared “we would reveal his name and identity if we could, but there is a time and place for everything,” in an apparent attempt to justify maintaining his anonymity to avoid him being targeted, although establishing the identity of a leader is a prerequisite for pledging allegiance.
Continuity in strategy: The statement highlighted the necessity of continuing operations to free ISIS members from prisons in various countries, a strategy developed by former leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi before his death. ISIS carried out various operations targeting prisons over the past two years, the most prominent of which was this year’s attack on Ghweiran prison in northeastern Syria, which preceded the killing of Abu Ibrahim al-Hashimi.
The rising importance of spokesperson’s role: The proximity of the organization’s spokesperson to its leader has been revealed by the fact that the two previous spokespersons were killed in the same raids that killed its leaders. In 2019, ISIS announced the killing of media spokesman Abu al-Hassan al-Muhajir with Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, and in 2022, it announced the killing of media spokesman Abu Hamza al-Qurashi with Abu Ibrahim al-Hashemi. The rising role of the group’s media apparatus is of note here, not only in promoting ISIS, but also in terms of linking branches to the central command and issuing strategic directives, in light of the difficulty of communication.
ISIS’ delayed announcement raises questions, as it could affect the trust between the group’s central command in Iraq and Syria, and its branches in Asia and Africa, the possible reasons for the delay include:
Disagreement over the candidate: The delay in the announcement may indicate a more difficult transition process than that involved in the selection of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi’s successor. In the speech announcing the inauguration of Abu Al-Hassan Al-Hashemi, the spokesperson touched on the selection process, which he said included the recommendation of Abu Ibrahim Al-Hashemi and the Shura Council, as well as “Ahl el Hal wal ‘Aqd”, a term referring to a broader circle of people than the Shura Council. It is worth noting that there was no mention of this group in the announcement of Abu Ibrahim al-Hashemi in 2019, which referred only to the Shura Council and Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi’s recommendation. The choice of the new leader may have required appealing to a broader circle than the Shura Council for various considerations and indicates there was a possible dispute over the issue.
Difficulty in holding meetings: The escalation of ISIS’ operations under the Central Command in Iraq and Syria, with operations in Kirkuk, Iraq, and the storming of Ghweiran prison, have resulted in intensification of security operations against the organization. The Iraqi army, with intelligence support from the international coalition to confront ISIS, launched extensive operations against ISIS hideouts in Kirkuk, Anbar and northern Iraq. Moreover, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) are conducting combing operations to uncover ISIS cells, with the support of US forces, following the storming of Ghweiran prison. The US has also intensified on the ground intelligence operations to gain information about the movements of ISIS leaders. This situation would make it difficult for ISIS leaders to meet and discuss the choice of a new leader, as they are in different locations.
Stricter security arrangements: The targeting of ISIS leadership has become more intense, as only two years and one month passed between the killing of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi and Abu Ibrahim al-Hashimi. These efforts have been successful despite a restructuring of ISIS security and intelligence apparatus, following the death of a large number of its leaders during battles to dislodge ISIS control over regions in Iraq and Syria, which took place between 2017 and 2019. The group may have needed to make more complex security arrangements to provide a residence for the new leader. Reuters, citing Iraqi sources, said that Jomaa al-Badri, the brother of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, recently moved across the border from Syria to Iraq, amid speculation that he is the leader of the new organization.
Organizational adaptation: Organizational adaptation is one of the most important factors for the survival and continuity of terrorist groups and organizations, as it provides a degree of flexibility in dealing with internal and external variables. Over the past two years, some Western assessments have indicated that ISIS has acquired a degree of flexibility and organizational adjustment in response to its lose of control over territories, most recently in the Battle of Baghouz, Syria, in 2019, as well as the loss of several leading figures, through death and capture. In this context, structural changes have been made, to replace lost leaders by promoting others, as well as changing plans of action, networks of support, financing etc. These changes had to be made before naming a new leader, particularly as some captured members of ISIS are reported to have provided detailed information on the organization’s structures and processes.
The delay in announcing the new ISIS leader, identified only by an alias, is not expected to affect cohesion within the organization, or the relationship between the various branches and central command, in the foreseeable future. This decision can be viewed as an effort to focus on the organization rather than the person of the leader. Knowledge of the leader’s true identity, however, does remain important to the base of the organization, and therefore some limited defections may result in the future. The relationship of the various branches to ISIS central command remains predicated on the amount of support the latter provides for terrorist operations.
On the other hand, the spokesperson’s statement announcing the choice of the new leader emphasized his credentials in terms of his long involvement in militant action, suggesting he may have joined ISIS in the period following US invasion of Iraq in 2003. Such a basis of legitimacy cannot be claimed by leaders in branch or affiliate organizations, and emphasizing it can be seen in the context of preempting any calls to move the central command outside Iraq and Syria.