As the conflict in Ukraine continues, it appears likely that Russia will seek to exert pressure on Europe and the US through exacerbating some issues in the Middle East. Russia may use its extended presence in the region to increase illegal migration to Europe, as well as the movement of terrorists to the continent, in order to undermine European security. At a time when the US and its allies are seeking to reduce tensions and security threats from the region, Russia may perceive its presence and influence in the Middle East as a means of pressuring the West. New threats from the region would reduce Europe’s focus on the war in Ukraine, and on sanctioning and isolating Russia economically and politically. There are several issues on which Russia could play such obstructive and destabilizing role in the Middle East, including:
Hindering humanitarian aid to Syria: Before conflict broke out in Ukraine, there was a certain level of understanding reached between Russia and the US over humanitarian corridors in Syria. However, with the escalation of the conflict in Ukraine, Russia has demonstrated its intention to put obstacles in the way of humanitarian aid reaching certain areas in Syria. Russia’s deputy envoy to the UN, Dimitri Polanski, threatened to veto an upcoming vote on the extension of the passage of UN aid to Syria, through an entry point on the Turkish-Syrian borders. The current agreement on the use of this passageway for humanitarian aid expires next July, and Ethan Goldrich, the US Assistant Secretary of State for the Near East, has stressed the importance of extending it. Russia might seek to hinder this by voting against an extension of this aid as per draft resolution no 2585, in retaliation for western sanctions.
Obstructing the Iran Nuclear Deal: While Western and Iranian statements have indicated that Iran and the global powers are close to reaching a deal to rekindle the 2015 nuclear agreement, in return for a lifting of sanctions on the Iranian regime, Russia appears to be seeking to hinder its final conclusion. In pursuit of its own interests, Russia has sought written guarantees that the sanctions on Russia from the west will not hinder economic, trade, political, military, and investment ties with Iran.
The US has considered the Russian demand as “out of context”, and a hindrance to the conclusion of the nuclear agreement, as sanctions on Russia are unrelated to this issue. The European countries taking part in the negotiations have warned Russia that his demand could derail the nuclear agreement with Iran after a full 11 months of negotiations.
Escalating tensions in Libya: Tensions between the competing governments of Fathy Bashagha and Abdel Hamid El Debiba have been mounting, in a manner threatening security and political stability in Libya. The international community has taken a cautious position, refraining from taking either side. Russia, on the other hand, has broken with this international consensus, as Dimitri Polanski, the deputy representative at the UN, declared his country’s support for the Bashagha government. Russia is unlikely to allow the West to establish a new status quo in Libya which would undermine Russian interests there. It is also likely to exploit the situation in Libya to pressure the West, by increasing illegal migration flows from Libya into Europe, to escalate the situation in Libya, and by moving some foreign fighters into Ukraine.
In response to these Russian moves, the US has sought to capitalize on the Ukraine war to undermine Russia’s cooperation with Turkey in the Middle East. The US has sought to end the state of tension that has characterized its relations with Turkey in recent years and bring Turkey back into the NATO fold. The US suggested that Turkey supply Ukraine with the Russian made S-400 missile defense system. It has been reported that US Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman, had discussed this matter during her visit to Turkey on the 4th of March. The Biden administration had previously asked all NATO alliance members that have the S-300 and S-400 defense systems to transfer them to Ukraine to bolster its defenses in the face of Russian attacks.
In sum, as US and European pressures mount on Russia to end its military attack on Ukraine, Russia has been trying to use its military presence in the Middle East, including regular forces and its Wagner private military group in Libya, as a countering source of pressure. It seeks to illustrate that it can use its presence and influence in the Middle East to undermine US and EU interests, and that the West will have to deal with Russia in order to resolve or deescalate the various crises in that region, and elsewhere around the world.