The evacuation of foreign combatants from Libyan territory is at the forefront of international and local concerns, especially since this extraction needs be concluded by next September against the backdrop of serious efforts to organize presidential and parliamentary elections in the last quarter of this year. Since March 30, UN envoy Abdullah Batelli has toured Libya’s southern neighbors, including Sudan, Chad, and Niger, to follow up on the withdrawal of foreign troops and mercenaries from various regions of Libya, and to coordinate with their governments on security cooperation and border control in preparation for the upcoming elections.

Batelli appears to be seeking support from Libya’s neighbors to extract their loyal mercenaries from the country in a push by the UN to assist the Libyan 5+5 Joint Military Commission (JMC) in its tasks, amongst other efforts to resolve the country’s protracted political crisis.

Drawing a Clear Picture

At its meeting in Cairo on 7 February, the JMC agreed to adopt an integrated mechanism on the collection and exchange of data and information on foreign mercenaries and combatants in Libya. The UN mission considered this agreement as positive progress towards stability in Libya and its neighboring states.

This was preceded by the JMC’s approval, in October of last year, on the establishment of a subcommittee that would map out the country’s armed groups, locate mercenaries and foreign combatants, and work on their evacuation from the country in accordance with Section IV of the Ceasefire Agreement signed in 2020. This provision also provides for the process of tallying and classifying armed groups and entities throughout Libya, legitimate or otherwise, with clear intelligence on their leaders, numbers, weapons and whereabouts. 

Notably, the meeting hosted in Cairo, attended by the Libyan Liaison Committee and its counterparts from the Sudan and Niger, under the auspices of UN envoy Abdallah Batelli, approved the adoption of an integrated mechanism for joint coordination on the collection, and exchange of data and information, on mercenaries and foreign combatants. According to UN estimates, the number of foreign combatants could be as high as 20,000 mercenaries of different nationalities, headed by Syrians, Russians, Sudanese, Chadians and Nigerians.

It is clear that the removal of mercenaries from southern Libya, despite the commitment by the three neighbouring states to help evacuate combatants from Libyan territory, is a difficult task. Indeed, most of these mercenaries are essentially elements of armed opposition to these states, who have found safe haven in Libya.

This issue is thus at the forefront of the UN envoy’s visit to these three states, with a view to agreeing to implement the Agreement on the Mechanism for the Exchange of Data and Information on Mercenaries and Foreign Combatants in Southern Libya, that provides conditions for their withdrawal and removal.

Multiple incentives

Batelli’s keeness to undertake this tour can be explained by a number of motives, most notably:

1. Fear of escalation in the south: The south of Libya is of geopolitical importance, and is therefore a matter of concern for fear of its entry into the cycle of conflict. The problem of extracting African mercenaries from the South lies in two aspects: first, that the states to which these combatants belong appear unwilling to receive them, owing to the security challenge they live in, and the potential contribution of these combatants, should they return, to increased unrest.

Secondly, in southern Libya, combative elements endure on both sides of the conflict, such as the Janjaweed and Chad’s mercenaries. Unlike Syrian mercenaries who operate in Libya’s west, and Russian Wagner forces who are present in the east, southern Libya is not territorially commanded by one faction. Therefore, the result of the upcoming elections runs the high risk of violent outbreak by disgruntled factions, triggering a cycle of conflict in the south. 

2. Addressing the extraction of mercenaries ahead of the elections: The issue of mercenaries and foreign forces in Libya is a major concern for the UN, as well as the majority of international parties familiar with, and involved in, the country’s crisis. It is noted here that Batelli preceded his visit to the Libya’s southern neighbors, with a meeting in Tunisia in mid-March, with liaison committees from Libya, Sudan, Chad and Niger, on the launching of a data and information exchange mechanism to withdraw mercenaries and foreign combatants in line with previous commitments in Cairo.

3. Controlling Libya’s southern border: Aligning with countries south of Libya, and cooperating towards border security and control is among the most important reasons that prompted the UN envoy’s visit. On March 30, Batelli called on Libya’s neighboring countries to make collective efforts to control and secure their borders, to prevent Libya’s crisis from serving as a haven for lawless groups, terrorist organizations, and illegal immigration.

In Sudan, the first state visited on tour, Batelli affirmed in his meeting with President of the Sudanese Sovereign Council, General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, that Libya’s security and stability are an extension of the security and stability of neighboring states. The withdrawal of foreign armed movements and foreign combatants from Libya requires concerted efforts by neighboring states to intensify border control, and shut down the movement of terrorist groups. He added, “We need to work with our partners to address this challenge.”

4. Bringing together Libya’s neighbors to support the UN mission: With a view to contributing to the support of the UN Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) and the Libyan JMC on the implementation of the action plan on the withdrawal of foreign mercenaries, the UN envoy held a series of meetings with senior officials during his tour of neighboring countries south of Libya. In addition to meeting with President al-Burhan in Sudan, Batelli met with Sudanese Defence Minister Major General Yassin Ibrahim, who emphasized his Ministry’s “commitment to continue joint cooperation, support the coordinated withdrawal of all elements of the combatants, and their reintegration into the regular forces”.

In Chad, Batelli stated on Twitter, that he met in N’Djamena with the Transitional Head of State of Chad, General Mohamed Idriss Déby, who expressed his country’s full support for the UN-facilitated peace process in Libya. In Niger, the UN envoy met with the President of the Republic, Mohamed Bazoum, and the Ministers of Defence and Interior, with Batelli posting on Twitter that he had discussed with Defense Minister Qassim Indatu the importance of strengthening border security between Libya and Niger, to prevent illegal trafficking and criminal activities that negatively affect the national security of both countries.

5. Creating conditions conducive to elections: UNSMIL and Libyan parties are rushing to take serious steps to neutralize mercenaries and evacuate foreign combatants ahead of the elections, fearing the impact of their presence on the elections and their results. Conducting elections in the presence of mercenary elements, whether African, Syrian, or Russian Wagner forces, could spark conflict in the post-presidential election phase.

Accordingly, Batelli’s visit to Libya’s neighboring states, was an attempt to create conditions conducive to the holding of elections through an agreement on the removal of mercenaries, which serves as one of the pillars of the political process. Indeed, the presence of mercenaries and armed militias creates instability, especially since they have a significant impact on Libya’s political future.

Preliminary steps

In this context, it can be said that Batelli’s tour is timely and of the essence. His efforts express the necessity of implementing preparatory measures to provide the right climate for the holding of elections in Libya. Nevertheless, this step, although necessary, is insufficient to resolving the crisis because the states involved cannot effectively control mercenaries in Libyan territory. Not to mention illegitimate and nonstate actors who do submit to official governing bodies. Resolving this dilemma therefore requires the intervention of regional and international forces involved in supporting Libya’s political stability and security, to enhance the chances of holding successful elections in near future.