The Lebanese parliamentary elections of the 15th of May were the first to be held since the outpouring of popular protest that erupted in October 2019 against the established political order in Lebanon. The elections took place in the context of a full-blown collapse of the economy, classified by the World Bank as the worst economic disaster since the 1850s. Over 80% of the population in Lebanon are now living below the poverty line, and the Lebanese Lira has lost over 90% of its value against the dollar. Unemployment has risen to exceed 30% of the population, and there is a liquidity crisis in the banks, which has led to the imposition of severe limits on withdrawals, in addition to a severe deficit in the generation of electricity.
Moreover, the elections were notable for the boycott by Saad El Hariri and his party of elections for the first time, which raised questions regarding the voting pattern of Lebanon’s Sunni population. Therefore, many in Lebanon regarded these elections are an opportunity to create momentum for finding a path out of this crisis situation.
The Lebanese Interior Minister, Basem El Mawli, announced the official results of the elections, with Hezbollah and the Amal Movement gaining 31 seats, the Free Patriotic Movement, 18 seats, the Lebanese Forces 18 seats, the Phalanges 4 seats, the Armenian Party 3 seats, al- Marada, 2 seats, whilst the independents, known as the supporters of change, got 13 seats, civil society representatives won 12 seats, and the Socialist Progressive Party won 9 seats. These results reveal the following voting trends:
Decreasing levels of political participation: The Lebanese Interior Ministry announced that the percentage of the population that took part in the legislative elections was 41%, as opposed to 49.7% in the year 2018. This means that over half of the Lebanese people chose not to participate, a significant decrease. This can be explained as the lack of trust by the population in the political parties running for election, both the traditional parties and those calling for change, as well as the boycott by Hariri’s movement, which led a large swath of his supporters to follow suit. The political forces, in short, failed to motivate the Lebanese electorate to turn up and vote.
Punitive voting against Hezbollah: The results reveal that Hezbollah and its allies have lost the parliamentary majority, as they needed 64 seats out of the 128 to maintain it. In the previous elections of 2018, Hezbollah and its allies won a total of 71 seats. The decrease in the number of seats they won this time reveals that their popularity has decreased significantly. Many in Lebanon blame Hezbollah for the political and economic crises from which the country has been suffering. Its opponents have been using Hezbollah’s close ties with Iran to discredit its political platform, labelling Hezbollah as Iran’s proxy in Lebanon.
Changes in the Christian camp: The rise of support for the Lebanese Forces Party, and the relative retreat of the Free Patriotic Movement, shows a significant change in the voting pattern of Lebanese Christians which will have an important effect on the level of Christian support for Hezbollah, and the outcome of the upcoming presidential elections.
Support for independents as a force for change: One of the important outcomes of the election was the rise of the independents, who are viewed as part of the movement supporting change to the political system. This movement emerged from the widespread protests of 2019, and its representatives gained a total of 13 seats, running on a platform which called for holding accountable Lebanon’s traditional political elite, for their responsibility in creating the current crises. It appears that large swathes of the Lebanese population voted for independents as a means of punishing the traditional political elites. This rise of the independents could also be linked to the boycotting by Hariri’s movement of the elections, which had won 20 seats in the last elections.
Potential Fallout
The results of the Lebanese parliamentary elections will have a number of potential consequences for the political system, which include:
No Clear parliamentary majority: Since Hezbollah lost its majority, which allowed it to pass its proposals, the parliament will likely become an arena for confrontation between what are known as the forces of the 8 and 14 of March. Samir Geagea, head of Lebanese Forces Party has announced the party would not participate in any government which would include Hezbollah. This suggests the possibility of a political stalemate, and the inability to form a government or elect a new president.
Inability to address economic crises: The most pressing issue that the upcoming government has to address is the economic and financial crises. Especially the shortage of foreign currency and basic commodities. Problems and delays in forming the government will negatively impact such efforts and will hinder the implementation of the economic plan stipulated by the IMF as a condition for providing financial assistance.
Reevaluating the alliance between the Free Patriotic Movement and Hezbollah: This scenario seems likely as the Movement had already signaled this intention last year, and in view of the decrease in popular support which resulted in the Movement losing the majority it had enjoyed in the Christian parliamentary block.
Consequences for leadership positions: It is not believed that the changed composition of parliament will affect the continuation of Nabih Berry, head of the Amal Movement and Hezbollah’s ally, as speaker. This position is allocated to the Shia community, and no Shia candidate from outside Amal and Hezbollah made it into parliament, so there are no other contenders for the post. The question remains open regarding the post of prime minister, which is allocated to the Sunni community, in view of Hariri’s boycott. There have been suggestions that Ashraf Reify, who won the seat of Tripoli in northern Lebanon, could be a candidate for the post. The choice of President of the Republic, allotted to the Christian community, is also open, in view of the larger number of seats won by The Lebanese Forces Party.
In sum, while the Lebanese Parliamentary elections resulted in limited changes on the political scene, it is likely to create severe political polarization in a parliament where there is no clear majority. This may plunge Lebanon into the throes of a protracted political stalemate.