The Algerian Southern Liberation Movement lately announced that it intends to escalate military operations against the Algerian regime. The latter had in fact announced the loss of 3 of its soldiers in an attack on an army checkpoint on the 20th of March 2022, close to the borders of Mali, for which the movement announced its responsibility. The Algerian Liberation Movement rose to prominence as a secessionist movement linked to the Tuareg tribes, with the aim of “liberating” the Algerian desert and establishing a Tuareg state.

 The Tuareg tribes extend across a vast desert area, spanning from Mauritania in the west to Chad in the east, encompassing Algeria, Libya, Niger, Burkina Faso, and Mali. They are known in the Algerian desert as “Blue Men”, as their blue colored robes distinguish them from other Amazigh tribes. The In Algeria, the Tuareg are spread across the southern regions, including the provinces of Tamanghasset and Adrar, and are estimated to number between 3 and 4 million. 

The movement has declared its primary objective as continued escalation of military operations until all of the Algerian desert in the south has been “liberated”, as is the legitimate aim of “the sons and daughters of south Algeria”. The movement perceives these region to suffer from exploitation by the north and Europe, who reap the benefits of its resources while the region and its inhabitants remain among the poorest in the world. 

Drivers of Escalation 

There are a host of factors that have pushed the liberation movement to escalate against the Algerian military lately, the most important of which are: 

 Algerian support of the Polisario movement. The Algerian government’s support of the independence aspirations of the Polisario Movement in the Western Sahara undermines its justification to deny the aspirations of the Algerian Southern Liberation Movement.  The movement is also seeking to capitalize on current tensions between Algeria and Morocco, whereby the Algerian army is focusing attention on the border areas between the two countries, in preparation for possible escalation of these tensions. The army is therefore more vulnerable to a war of attrition from the movement. This escalation comes at a sensitive time in terms of shifting regional alliances and balance of power, as well as turbulence on the international level, which are all factors distracting decision makers in Algiers.  

Demographic changes in southern Algeria: The regions constituting southern Algeria cover a wide expanse which makes up over 85% of Algeria’s area, and holds all of its oil and gas reserves, yet accounts for only 9% of its population. The region has in recent years experienced major changes, including a more than 2% rate of population growth, rapid urbanization, as more than 70% of the population now live in cities, as well as increased levels of education and connectivity to the internet. Southern Algeria for a long time remained free of protests and political discontent which have periodically rocked northern Algeria since the 1980s. However,  due to the impact of the various Arab uprisings , as well as mounting local grievances, politics in the south has grown more contentious since 2013, and it has become a focal point of repeated protests against what inhabitants see as marginalization  and neglect by the Algerian regime.

The growth of discontent and secessionist sentiment: The rise of this movement followed the appearance of several secessionist movements, including the “Liberation Movement of Tamanghasset and Adrar”, which boycotted legislative elections in  2021 .Over 99% of the population  at the time boycotted the elections, and Algeria’s National Security Council designated this movement as a terrorist group. The southern region has also been rife with tribal conflicts, especially repeated conflicts between Arab Sunni and Berber tribes. The city of Ain Salah, at the southernmost point, is also experiencing the most significant environmental protest movement in the Maghreb region, as thousands of people gather to protest shale gas exploration ventures that the Algerian government has been secretly undertaking in the area. Finally, growing unemployment in the region has also been a major driver of discontent. 

The influence of the Tuareg secessionist movement in Mali: Although a peace accord was signed between the Mali government and the Tuareg rebels in 1995, under Algerian sponsorship, the Tuareg in Mali have continued to be dissatisfied. Since the coup in Mali in 2021, the Tuareg have sought to enter a new round of negotiations with the military to reach a new agreement regarding the sharing of power and wealth. This has inspired the Tuareg in Algeria to increase their own pressure on the Algerian government, to reach an agreement that would better meet their economic and political needs, especially as their demand for autonomy has been  ignored by successive Algerian governments .  

Possible Future Scenarios 

There are two possible future scenarios regarding the situation on southern Algeria, the first of which is a military campaign by the Algerian army in the South. This would however most probably lead to the strengthening of secessionist sentiment there and may draw the army into extended asymmetrical confrontations with various Tuareg, terrorist and criminal groups over a large expanse of desert. This would also likely anger Tuareg populations in neighboring countries, undermining the role Algeria has previously played as mediator. 

The second scenario would involve negotiating with the Tuareg tribes, which would imply that the Algerian Armed Forces do not want a confrontation with the movement at this time, as it would force them to fight on 2 fronts: the south of Algeria and potentially with the Moroccan Armed Forces. Algeria also wishes to avoid provoking Tuareg tribes throughout the region, which would prove destabilizing. The biggest challenge to this scenario is the high level of demands the southern regions are making, as autonomy has not been an option the Algerian regime has been willing to accept. 

In sum, the Algerian government still classifies the Southern Liberation Movement as a terrorist group and will most likely move to make arrests amongst the more radical elements of the Tuareg. The government is likely to try to temper this approach by opening channels of dialogue with the more moderate leaders of the Tuareg tribes, to try to avoid escalatory action against the Algerian Armed Forces in these southern regions.