During his meeting with European Union ambassadors on December 12th, Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibah of the Temporary National Unity Government addressed various political matters and discussed cooperation with EU countries. He also touched upon the initiative put forth by the United Nations Support Mission in Libya, led by Abdullah Battali, while expressing his appreciation for the return of European Union embassies to operation in Libya.
The meeting, attended by ambassadors from 14 European countries, including Italy, Germany, France, and Spain, along with EU Ambassador to Libya Nicola Orlando, featured a notable confirmation. Ambassador Orlando affirmed “the Union’s support for the efforts of the Special Representative of the Secretary-General of the United Nations through the upcoming dialogue.” He commended the collaboration between Libya and the Union, particularly in addressing issues related to “irregular migration” and comprehensive “economic cooperation.”
The meeting highlighted the European Union’s renewed interest in the Libyan scene, driven by various factors. Foremost among these is the challenge of irregular migration to Europe through Libya, where Europe aims to counter Turkey’s potential exploitation of this issue. Additionally, the Union is actively working to resist Russian pressures on Southern Europe, particularly in matters related to energy. The discussions also centered on trade, economic cooperation, and the Union’s aid initiatives for Libya.
Multiple Considerations
The growing interest of the European Union in reasserting its presence in the Libyan scenario can be understood through several key considerations, notably:
1. Irregular Migration Challenge: The European Union is grappling with a steadily intensifying crisis emanating from irregular migration, with Libya emerging as a major source. On July 15th, the International Organization for Migration disclosed that Libya is host to over 700,000 foreigners, the majority of whom aspire to reach Europe. In an October 2021 report, the organization outlined that the number of irregular migrants arriving in Libya during 2018 and 2019 totaled 679,897, hailing predominantly from various African countries and representing 42 different nationalities.
Libya stands as a pivotal focal point in the challenge of irregular migrants heading to Europe, with approximately 90% of migrants departing from the Libyan coast. Consequently, the migration issue remains a persistent source of contention in Libyan-Italian relations, illustrating the intricate relationship with EU countries on this front. This is particularly evident within the framework of the Union’s policies and its endeavors to transition Libya from a “transit state” to a “migration land.”
2. Addressing Turkish and Russian Pressures: European Union countries are concerned about potential efforts by Turkey, given the complexities in their relationship, to persistently exploit the migration issue as a means of applying pressure. Turkey’s strategic aim is to establish maritime bases on the coasts of Libya, utilizing them as a “pressure card” to influence migration routes to Europe. European anxieties stem from Turkey’s failure to fulfill its commitments outlined in the migration agreement signed between the two parties in 2016.
Similarly, European concerns heighten in the case of Russia, particularly with the presence of the “Nord Stream” gas pipeline connecting Europe and Libya via Italian shores. EU countries recognize that this pipeline serves as a significant motivation for Russia’s involvement in Libya, with the goal of controlling Libyan gas as a critical energy source for Europe. This suggests that the maritime gas pipeline could become an additional leverage point for Europeans if Moscow succeeds in gaining control of it, complementing the existing migration card.
3. Rising Significance of the Energy Sector: Libyan gas exports currently hold the fifth position among the countries supplying gas to Europe. Various estimates indicate that Libya has achieved a pumping rate of 5.3 million cubic meters per day through pipelines to EU countries.
This occurs as the influx of gas to Europe from Norway, Algeria, Russia, and Azerbaijan collectively reaches about 453 million cubic meters per day. While Libya’s contribution is comparatively modest in relation to the four preceding countries, its significance is underscored, particularly in the context of European sanctions on Russia stemming from the Ukraine conflict. This importance is magnified if the volume of Libyan gas exports can be increased, a prospect that gains relevance due to the proximity of the Libyan coast to Southern Europe.
Additionally, European countries have refocused their attention on Libya owing to its substantial oil reserves, estimated at 48 billion barrels. Approximately a little over a year ago, Libya’s oil production had surged to around 1.3 million barrels per day. However, due to internal security issues and subsequent closures of oil wells, production has become volatile. Nonetheless, Libya’s abundant oil production remains crucial for Europe, primarily due to its proximity to European shores, resulting in reduced transportation costs compared to other regions of the world.
4. Advancing Economic Cooperation: Beyond the European interest in Libyan gas and oil, there is a concerted focus on economic aspects, specifically trade, between Libya and European Union countries. Despite the impact of the prolonged Libyan crisis on trade relations, it holds true that the European Union stands as Libya’s principal trading partner. According to estimates from the year 2020 cited by the European Union Mission to Libya website, the EU accounted for 51% of Libya’s total trade.
Persistent Competition
In this context, Libya’s strategic importance arises from its proximity to European shores and its control over substantial reserves of gas and oil. The challenges posed by irregular migration through Libyan territories and coasts affect not only its southern countries but the entire European continent. These challenges, along with the energy resources, form the basis for European interest in reengaging with Libya, marking a return of the European Union to operate within the country after years of absence from its dynamics.
However, despite the significance the Union places on Libya, differing strategies among European countries, especially France and Italy, pose a considerable obstacle to the Union’s efforts to resume operations within Libya. The apparent discord between Italy and France is not confined to attempts to enhance influence, particularly in the Libyan energy sector, but extends to the migration issue. France opposes Italy’s collaboration with specific armed factions to deter the arrival of migrants.
In reality, this specific disagreement is one of the variables that have enabled—and continue to enable—opportunities for militias to solidify their presence on Libyan soil, to the extent that these militias have become a hindrance to resolving the protracted crisis in Libya.