While Europe has sought in the past few decades to follow a policy of increased engagement with Middle Eastern issues, in response to the formula of opportunities and risks that links the continent to the region, questions have been raised recently regarding the possibility of European disengagement, in line with US withdrawal from the Middle East region. Moreover, several developments in Europe have brought the future of its policy in the Middle East under question, including the end of the Merkel era in Germany, the approaching French presidential elections in April 2022, as well as the growing trend for international powers to turn attention to other regions. This was reflected in the new alliance between the UK, Australia and the US, AUKUS, which is focused on confronting China, as well as the growing engagement of Russia in Sub-Saharan Africa, threatening the influence of some European countries such as France.

Determinants of European policy

 European policy towards the Middle East in recent years has been shaped by four main determinants:

1. Economic interests: Economic interests are an important driver of European policy towards the region, as the European Union is an important trading partner for the countries of the region, and energy supplies from the region are of particular importance. Moreover, regional conflicts have opened new economic opportunities for European countries, such as France and Germany, for whom the region has become an important market for exporting weapons. For example, on January 3, the German Ministry of Economy announced that Berlin had agreed to export EUR 1.16 billion worth of weapons to countries in the Middle East during 2020. The region’s oil is  an important determinant of French and German policy towards the region, and both countries have pursued the participation in reconstruction projects and obtaining contracts in strategic sectors in various Middle East countries.
   
2. Confronting Threats: Europe has come to view the region as a source of significant threats. Paramount among these is the threat from terrorist organizations, which have been persistent in their efforts to carry out terrorist attacks on European soil, as well as recruiting followers among European populations. Another significant threat has been the waves of migration resulting from the region’s conflicts, which have had a significantly destabilizing effect on Europe. Furthermore, Iran’s policies in the region, and developments in its nuclear program pose threats to the security and interests of European countries. Iranian naval attacks on ships over the past years have strengthened European countries’ conviction of the need to intervene in the region’s crises.
   
3. Competition for influence: European politics in the region has been driven, in part, by competition for influence with other countries. European countries were uneasy with growing Russian influence in the region over the past years, especially given it could have a direct impact on European interests. Russian presence in Libya, for example, appeared to directly threaten the interests of European countries in this strategic country, given its geographic position across the Mediterranean from Europe. Turkish policies in the region have also prompted European countries to pay more attention to its activities; France’s activity in the region is in part motivated by the desire to contain Turkish influence as tensions escalate between the two countries.
   
4. The impact of European leaders: Certain European leaders have had a large influence on shaping foreign policy, in particular German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who is preparing to step down.  She has viewed the Middle East as an arena for Europe to play a larger role on the world stage, and therefore advocated increased European engagement with the region.
   
   French President Emmanuel Macron also embraced a growing European role in the region, as revealed in statements he made to the French newspaper Le Monde during his election campaign in April 2017, when he said that he “seeks to establish a partnership between France, Europe, the Mediterranean region, and Africa to achieve common interests on the issues of climate, trade, and employment, as well as security and stability.”
   

Future scenarios

These four determinants indicate the possible trajectory for the European role in the region, which may develop along two possible scenarios.

The first scenario is continued European engagement in the region, supported by a number of considerations:

1. Economic gains: European countries continue to have significant economic interests in the region which are unlikely to decline in the short term. Energy supplies remain crucial, arms exports remain high, and participation in the reconstruction of countries such as Libya and Syria are likely to prove lucrative.
   
2. Persistent threats:  Threats emanating from the region have not completely receded. Illegal migration remains at the forefront of Europe’s troubles, while terrorist threats prevail, as several reports indicate that ISIS is once more intensifying its activities.
   
3.  Prevailing vision:  The European policy articulated by influential leaders is likely to remain in effect, even after their departure from power. This could explain the significance of outgoing German Chancellor Merkel’s visits to a number of countries in the region, in an attempt lay out the features of German foreign policy for the incoming government. On October 10, Merkel visited Israel, where she discussed a number of issues, such as Palestine, on which she stressed the importance of the two-state solution. With regard to the Iranian nuclear file, she indicated that she “did not consider the 2015 Iranian nuclear agreement ideal” but described it as “better than no deal.” She stated that “the current situation is difficult with Iran continuing to enrich uranium, and it will be important to continue discussions in the coming weeks.”
   
   Days after this visit, on 16 October, Merkel visited Turkey and met with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. There, she called for continuation of the agreement between the European Union and Ankara on controlling immigration to Europe and stressed the need for the European Union to continue its support for Turkey in the fight against illegal immigration.

The second scenario is the possible European withdrawal from the region, echoing the  American stance. Although there are numerous complications surrounding this scenario, it is supported by a number of factors:

1. Domestic preoccupation: Some European countries are witnessing political developments that may lead, even for a limited period, to a focus on the domestic front, reducing interest in the situation in the Middle East. This is evident in Germany following the 26 September legislative elections and the complexities of forming the new government and choosing the new chancellor. France is set to hold presidential elections next year, which are likely to impact French policy in the region.
   
2. Challenges of filling security vacuum: Europe has tried over the past years to differentiate its policy in the region from that of the US, taking an independent path in interacting with Middle East issues, foremost of which is the Iranian nuclear file. However, doubts remain about the extent to which European countries can fill the vacuum left by US disengagement from the region, as they do not enjoy the same capabilities and resources. There are also diverging visions between European countries regarding relations with Washington, and the concept of “strategic autonomy.” Opinions in Germany largely believe Europe will not be able to replace the the US as the “provider of security.” French President Macron, disagrees, and is a strong endorser of developing European military capabilities and exercising strategic independence.
   
   Moreover, the complexity of Middle East problems at times makes European efforts appear ineffective In Lebanon, for example, despite the initiative put forward by France following the Beirut Port explosion in August 2020, and the pressures it exerted on Lebanese political factions to form a government, more than a year passed before a government was actually formed.
   
3. Regional acceptance: There must be acceptance on the part of regional actors if European engagement is to continue, but lately this has been contested. There are for example rising tensions between France and some countries in the region, such as Algeria. Algeria summoned its ambassador from France for consultations in October, accusing Paris of interfering in its affairs. It also closed its airspace to French military aircraft, hindering the latter from reaching Mali, where its forces are carrying out “anti-terrorist” missions. Such problems, if not addressed, are likely to have a negative impact on the European role in the region, eventually resulting in European disengagement.
   
4. The rise of Asia: The new alliance between Australia, the US and the UK, AUKUS, has highlighted the growing importance of Asia and rising tensions with China. It is likely to prompt European countries to think about their own strategic options in Asia and how to deal with China. While it is true that China and Europe enjoy good economic relations, Europe still views China as a strategic competitor.
   
   In a similar vein, France is contemplating the loss of its traditional influence in Africa to Russia, after reports that Mali is engaging with the Russian Wagner Group to deploy its forces to protect senior political figures and train the country’s security forces. France may reduce its involvement in the Middle East in order to maintain its influence in Africa, which is of historic significance to France.
   
5. Regional initiatives: Recent months have witnessed signs of a change in the international relations of the Middle East. After years of hostile Turkish policies, Ankara has sought to calm tensions and establish good relations with key countries in the region. Iran has also adopted this approach. A reduction in tensions in the Middle East cannot but impact European policy towards that region. At the very least, it reduces the acuteness of issues that have motivated European engagement with the region during the past years.
   

In light of the interests and threats governing Europe’s approach to the region, it is unlikely it will disengage from it in the short term. However, the withdrawal scenario will remain valid and possible in the long run.