Iraq has been suffering from a worsening water crisis for many years, resulting from climate change and global warming, as well as a lack of a clear water management strategy. However, the fact that Iraq depends on water sources located outside its borders, primarily in Iran and Turkey, has played a significant role in exacerbating the crisis. Both Iran and Turkey use water as a tool to pressure Iraq to pursue their own economic, political and security goals, through reducing the supply of water, changing tributary paths, and building dams.
Impending water scarcity
Over the past few years, there have been indications that Iraq is facing a major water crisis, as the water level in the Tigris and Euphrates experienced a significant decline. According to the Global Water Stress Index, the water stress in Iraq has reached 3.7 out of 5, classifying it as a “high risk” country with regard to water scarcity. It is expected that by 2040 the Tigris and Euphrates will completely dry up, putting Iraq in an extremely vulnerable and dangerous position.
Many factors have combined to create this crisis, including the decrease in rainfall, the decrease of water supply to Iraq’s two rivers as a result of dams in upstream countries (Turkey and Iran), as well as outdated water policies. According to some estimates, the deficit in drinking water in some governorates, such as Kirkuk, is as high as 42%, while the overall deficit in Iraq comes to 18%.
The water crisis in Iraq has reached a critical level due to a sharp drop in the water level of the Tigris and Euphrates rivers this summer, especially in the southern governorates. These developments have prompted Iraqi authorities to make stark warnings about the adverse consequences to the agricultural sector and drinking water stations in these governorates. Mahdi Rashid, the Iraqi Minister of Water Resources, attributed this decline, to the “reduction in water supply from Turkey to the Tigris and Euphrates rivers by 50%, and Tehran diverting some tributaries away from Iraq, including the Sirwan River, and some of the waters of the Diyala tributary. This drop in water levels has led to a shrinkage in agricultural lands, widening desertification, a reduction in electric power generation, a threat to agricultural and industrial production, death of livestock, as well as a growing wave of migration and displacement.
The water crisis in Iraq is not limited to the decrease in water levels of the Tigris and Euphrates. Iraqi water security in general is in jeopardy due to climate change causing a rise in temperatures and minimal rainfall. It is expected that Iraq and the world as a whole is looking forward to a hotter future, with higher rates of evaporation of water bodies in Iraq leading to a smaller supply of water to rely on to cover the lack of incoming supply Turkey and Iran.
Turkish threats
Turkish water policy has posed a major threat to Iraq’s water security, in the following ways:
- Turkey’s stance regarding the Tigris and Euphrates rivers: Turkey does not consider these rivers to be “international rivers”, rather it refers to them as “transboundary”, implying it has the right to determine the amount of water it gives to Iraq, after satisfying its own needs.
- Building a large number of Dams: Turkey has constructed hundreds of dams over the past years on the Tigris and Euphrates. The latest and most significant addition to these dams is the huge “Ilisu” dam on the Tigris River (southeast of Turkey) on the border with Iraq. The Ilisu Dam is one of the largest dams built on the Tigris River, with a length of 1820 meters, a height of 135 meters and a width of two kilometers. The area of its basin is estimated at 300 square kilometers. The dam can hold 20.93 billion square meters of water, and can generate 1200 megawatts of electricity, becoming the fourth largest dam in Turkey in terms of electricity production capacity.
Some estimates put the reduction to Iraq’s share of Tigris waters as a result of this dam at 60%. This has caused the destruction of the historic city of “Hassan Keef” and the displacement of the inhabitants of 40 towns and villages. These developments are inconsistent with international laws, especially the two international conventions of 1966 and 1997. It also goes against the bilateral agreements Turkey signed with both Syria and Iraq, as well as the principles of good neighborliness.
- Using water as an instrument of political pressure: Turkey has used the water crisis to pressure the Iraqi government and achieve certain goals, such as the expansion of operations against the PKK, and increasing the number of Turkish military bases in Iraq. Moreover, Ankara’s has used Iraq’s need of water to obtain major economic concessions oil and reconstruction agreements.
Iranian pressure
Iran has an equally devastating impact on Iraq’s water situation, and Iranian water policies pose two main problems for Iraq:
- Diverting Iraq’s share of river waters: Conflict between Iran and Iraq over water issues started in the 1960s, as the result of unilateral measures taken by Iran against Iraq’s rights to water. Iran undertook the construction of many dams with the objective of diverting water into Iranian territories, with the Kanakir and Homan rivers being examples of this. Iran is also constructing temporary dams on a number of shared international rivers, such as the Banawah Sota and Dowerbej, in addition to digging new channels inside its territories for the purpose of diverting the river waters, such as digging the Alvand River water channel.
Tehran has also changed the course of the waters of the rivers feeding the Tigris River and diverted them into rivers and water reservoirs within Iranian territory as part of a plan to cut off the water flowing into Iraqi territory. Iraqi authorities officially confirmed this development in a recent announcement in late July stated that Iran “cut off the waters completely to Iraq”.
Iran appears to be solving its own water crisis at Iraq’s expense, as it is facing its worst drought in 50 years. It is diverting Iraq’s share of these waters to meet its domestic demand, using its various dams to create for itself a strategic reservoir of water.
- A Bargaining tool: Iran uses its advantage in water supply over Iraq as a bargaining tool, pressuring the Iraqi government to make concessions to Iran backed groups, as well as making economic gains for itself.
Iran appears to be counting on the current balance of power between the two countries to undertake more unilateral measures in this respect. The adviser to the Iraqi Ministry of Water Resources, Aoun Diab, in an interview with the state-run Al-Iraqiya TV last July, explained that “there is no positive response from the Iranian side on dialogue with Iraq to solve the water issue.” He added, “After the formation of the new Iranian government, we did not receive any indication of willingness to hold a dialogue on this issue……, no meeting has taken place at a joint ministerial or technical level between the two countries.”
Iraq has, since the beginning of 2021, made a more concerted effort to reach a clear protocol on sharing water with Turkey and Iran. Iraqi authorities have increased coordination with Syria to mobilize efforts to restore the flow of water to the Tigris and Euphrates rivers, and to implement international agreements.
On August 10th, the Iraqi Minister of Water Resources, Mahdi Rashid Al-Hamdani, announced that the Iraqi authorities have begun taking steps to escalate the issue on an international level and a meeting has been set to discuss Iraq’s water rights. However, Iraq appears to have limited options in this respect, given that the balance of power with both Turkey and Iran is not in its favor. Iraq’s lack of leverage, as well as the lack of a clear water strategy may hinder its efforts to address this water crisis.