A new round of conflict has erupted between the Ahl El Sunna Wal Jama’a, an organization of a Sufi orientation, and the government of the province of Galmudug in central Somalia, after more than a year of relative peace. This renewed conflict is a result of several variables, including the inability of the local and federal government to reach a political settlement with Ahl El Sunna, the changing security situation on the ground in Galmudug, which has witnessed in the last few months a rise in the activities of Shabab El Mujahedeen Militia, which in turn led to intensive operations by the Somali Federal Army and US airstrikes. These factors boosted the legitimacy of Ahl El Sunna, at a time when importance of the province of Galmudug in the Federal Union of the Somali provinces has grown, making it imperative to bring this province under control, even if by force. All this has increased the motivation of Ahl El Sunna.
Somalia as a country is characterized by lack of security as well as the inability of the state to extend control over the entire territory. In Galmudug, the recent rise in the Al Shabab activities has exacerbated the security vacuum, and created a tense political crisis, which allowed for renewed conflict between Ahl El Sunna on one hand, and the government of Galmudug and the Federal Government of Somalia on the other.
Although the operations of Ahl El Sunna virtually came to a halt after their last confrontation with the state’s armed forces in 2019, the collapse of the security situation gave the organization an excuse to resume activities, under the pretext of mobilizing to confront Al Shabab. As a result, the local police issued on the 28th of September a stern warning, especially as news reports circulated concerning Ahl El Sunna mobilization, demanding an end to incitement to violence. The police statement provided details of the arrival of leaders of the organization, Sheikh Hassan, and Sheikh Shaker, to commemorate the anniversary of Sheikh Youssef Dereed’s death. The police demanded these leaders return to their original bases within 24 hours.
By the 2nd of October, Ahl El Sunna had succeeded in gaining control over two towns, from which government forces withdrew without a fight. The organization also announced its fighters had repelled an attack by federal government forces in the region of Bohol as well as taking control of a military airport, preventing military planes from landing. On its part, the local government began to mobilize its military force in the state’s capital, where the airport received military reinforcements from the federal government of Somalia. In an attempt to increase the legitimacy of the organization, Ahl El Sunna leaders announced a war on Al Shabab, in a bid to “liberate Somalia”, while its fighters continued taking over areas of the state and started to move against its capital.
Complex Crisis
There are multiple reasons which have led to renewed confrontations between Ahl El Sunna and the state and federal forces, at a time when the government is facing several interrelated problems, these reasons include the following:
1- Failure to reach a political agreement with Ahl El Sunna: In view of the religious and tribal base of support Ahl El Sunna enjoys in the province of Galmudug, neither the Federal Government nor successive local government in the state of Galmudug have been able to dissolve, outlaw, or forcibly eradicate this organization. Previous confrontations were followed by negotiations, which led to fragile settlements that were quickly overturned by new developments on the ground, necessitating a new round of negotiations.
For example, in August 2015, a power-sharing deal was reached between the two sides, according to which Ahl El Sunna would become part of the provincial government, thus bringing its insurrection to an end, in return for proper representation in the government and legislative assembly, while members its armed wing were to be given positions in the armed forces. With the collapse of this agreement, both parties negotiated again in April 2017 under the auspices of the federal government, reaching another fragile agreement.
In 2019, following a series of failed negotiations between Ahl El Sunna and the federal government, once again launched a military offensive, which allowed it to exert control over a large area of the state, including several strategic positions. They were also able to gain control over the airport in the city of Adado, preventing the arrival of federal military assistance. Following this round of conflict, another agreement was reached after extensive talks, by virtue of which which the leader of the organization Mahmoud Sheikh Hassan, stepped down, handing over leadership to Sheikh Abdul Razak El Ashaary. This followed a meeting between leaders of the organization and the provincial government with the federal minister of interior Abdy Mohamed Sabry. In November of that year, the organization surrendered its control over a number of cities, and effectively went into a period of inactivity, broken in September 2021, revealing once more the fragile nature of all previous agreements between the organization and local or federal governments.
2- The rise of Al Shabab in Galmudug: The organization of Ahl El Sunna bases its legitimacy on its extended confrontation with Al Shabab, which started in 2008 and enabled it to prevent Al Shabab from taking over or operating in the state of Galmudug. The rising activity of Al Shabab in the state this year enhanced the legitimacy of Ahl El Sunna and led to popular demands for it once more to resume its fight against Al Shabab.
This comes in the context of the inability of government forces to halt Al Shabab advances. Government forces were unable to secure the city of Dhusamareb on the 21st of January this year, for the holding of a conference between the Somali president and the leaders of the Somali federation’s member states regarding the organization of elections. Al Shabab launched an attack on the city with a barrage of mortars. The day after the conference, a roadside explosion of an IED killed 14 soldiers and government officials, as well as the head of the intelligence service of Galmudug.
In April 2021 clashes between Al Shaba and Somali armed forces erupted in several parts of the state, to resume once again in July, when the Somali army announced it had killed 15 members of Al Shabab. This increased activity by Al Shabab in Galmudug has given rise to instability and a security vacuum, which allowed armed gangs disguised as military to rob and loot, with significant adverse effects on trade in the state. Al Shabab attacks also continued, peaking in August when they conducted nighttime bombardments of the state’s capital with mortar rounds targeting the airport, which has become a primary target of their repeated attacks.
3- The growing reliance on federal and US forces: In view of the inability of state forces to push back Al Shabab, federal military forces, as well as involving US forces from AFRICOM, have become increasingly involved in the fight. US forces carried out their first airstrikes under the administration of Joe Biden, targeting locations of the Al Shabab in Galmudug. This was confirmed by the US Defense Department Spokesperson on the 20th of July. The Somali government further affirmed the raid and declared the Al Shabab had suffered significant losses because of the airstrike. The Defense Department Press Secretary, John Kirby, affirmed that the US Africa Command AFRICOM had undertaken a second and third strike on the 20th of July that targeted Al Shabab again in Galmudug.
Although the increased involvement of Somali federal forces with American support has had relative success in containing Al Shabab, it has presented Ahl El Sunna with another justification to rally the population of Galmudug around its cause in opposing a weak federal government that relies to a great extent on “foreign” help. The organization has consistently opposed the presence of federal forces in the state, a demand which is largely supported by the population.
4- The symbolic significance of Galmudug: Throughout the prolonged crisis regarding the holding of elections in Somalia, the state of Galmudug has played a key role in mediating between the federal government and the member states of the federation. Galmudug’s capital, Dhusamareb, therefore became the location of successive rounds of talks in this respect, in the period between July and September 2020. This led to the signing of the agreement of September 17th, which is an important foundation on which to build a way out of the crisis surrounding the holding of elections. Dhusamareb also hosted another round of negotiations in February 2021, however, this did not achieve much success.
The head of the state of Galmudug, Mohamed Alas Ali, also played a major role in mediating between the Federal President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmajo, and the Prime Minister Mohamed Hussein Roble, over the removal of the head of intelligence Fahd Yassin last September. The mediation efforts of Ali led to lengthy negotiations between the two parties, and while they did not resolve the issue, this significantly enhanced the standing of the state of Galmudug and its president.
Galmudug’s enhanced position in the Somali federal system has given renewed incentive to Ahl El Sunna to try to reassert control over the state, hoping that would enable it to spread its influence and role throughout Somalia. In view of the problems which still surround the holding of elections in the state, the organization perceives it still has a chance to secure control over the state legislature and thereby its government.
A Dangerous Trajectory
In conclusion, the ongoing conflict between Ahl El Sunna and the government of Galmudug puts the state on a dangerous trajectory. This scenario is supported by several factors, including the continuation of the present political crisis resulting from delayed federal election, as well as the current standoff in Mogadishu between the president and the prime minister. Moreover, the future of the fight against terrorist organizations in Somalia has become ambiguous, after the “legitimization” of negotiating with such organizations established by the model of Afghanistan. In addition, economic and social conditions have reached a desperate level of deterioration throughout Somalia. On the other hand, there is still room to reach a political understanding, which though fragile like all its predecessors, could prevent the confrontation from reaching the point of no return. Such an outcome is supported by the ambiguous nature of Ahl El Sunna as an organization, which has a political as well as an ideological dimension.