On the 12th of October 2021, the Arab World Center for Advanced Research and Studies organized a discussion with professor Ali Eddin Hilal on the problems of coping with long-term instability in the Arab World. Dr. Hilal, a political scientist from Cairo University, gave a presentation on the issue, followed by a discussion with a number of experts on regional issues, including Dr. Mohamed Ezz El Arab, Dr. Mohamed Abbas Nagy, Mr. Ahmed Aleeba, Mr. Ahmed Kamel El Beiheriy, Mr. Amr Abdel Aaty, and Mr. Mohamed Bassiouny.
State of the Arab World
Professor Ali Eddin Hilal began the session with a review of the long list of predicaments that are plaguing the Arab region, arguing that an accurate assessment of each problem is essential to finding the best approach to finding a solution. According to him, the notion of instability must be treated with a good deal of caution, since the present moment in the Arab World differs to a great degree from the situation post-Arab Spring, that existed between 2011 and 2014. This time around, there is no longer a looming danger of the disintegration of nation-states. Some nations have been able to adapt, other nations have strengthened their state institutions, whilst others have avoided the failed state scenario altogether.
Professor Hilal agreed with the opinion that there is in the Arab World a situation of “long term instability”, although great care must be given to the manifestations of this instability. Some states that were considered to be on the verge of collapse, such as Lebanon, did not. There was success in forming a government. This means that other factors must be taken into consideration when assessing crises of instability, such as resilience, and a degree of “immunity” in Arab social and political systems, which overcome instability and preserve the status quo, such as the case of Syria. In some cases, such as Lebanon, there is a severe economic crisis, which is interpreted as an indicator of instability, yet it has not led to the total disintegration of the state.
Professor Hilal also pointed out that non-state actors are an important dimension to regional instability, in particular Islamist movements and terrorist groups such as ISIS. Although the latter for a period experienced a historical surge in growth in the Arab world, at the moment their power is in marked decline.
Analytical Approaches:
Professor Hilal pointed out that there are several approaches useful in analyzing the situation in the Arab world, including the following:
1- Risk Society: This concept can be useful in addressing the issue of regional stability, though it must be noted that it was originally developed in reference to society’s ability to deal with risks and did not address the state in this respect. Therefore, it can be applied to social institutions, such as the family, and how Arab societies can be prepared with the necessary capabilities to deal with the various risks to their cohesion and enable them to create a society that is immune to instability.
2- The Concepts of Fragile State, Weak State, and Failed State: While there are manifestations of all these concepts, each case is unique, and is linked to specific social, economic or political circumstances, as well as the ethnic, religious, factional composition and how it impacts the nature of the state. Other factors are also involved, such as those related to security, and the ability to control a nation’s border are also key. Sometimes, all these factors are in play, such as the case of Somalia, which is the most prominent case of a failed state in the world.
3- Prolonged Social Conflict: This is another key tool in analyzing the region since there are conflicts that are social in nature and not only political. This makes these conflicts more complex, more intractable, and difficult to settle.
4- Non-State Actors: There is a need to expand the use of this concept in the region, as it not only fits terrorist organizations, but also other groups such as drug smugglers, human traffickers, and arms smugglers.
5- Interference by regional and international actors: Professor Hilal argued that interference by external actors has an equal impact on instability as domestic causes. Non-Arab regional powers have established themselves at the center of the Arab regional order through various means, including proxies and military bases within Arab states.
Determinants of Instability
Professor Hilal argued that instability in the region is tied to the six following determinants:
1- Divided societies, as in some Arab nations primary loyalties are paramount, while loyalty to the state is significantly weaker, which undermines social cohesion.
2- Demographic pressures, which are not only tied to population size but also to the ability of the state to deal with the needs and demands of their populations. Moreover, the younger components of these populations are more technologically savvy and have higher demands and expectations.
3- Poor Governance, which has led to an inability to capitalize on natural resources and to put them to their best use.
4- An imbalance between the magnitude of challenges facing states and available resources.
5- The absence of a comprehensive vision and plan for sustainable development and social change.
6- The failure to take into consideration the role of new technologies and the advantages of the fourth industrial revolution.
The Path Forward
Professor Hilal argued that overcoming instability is fundamentally predicated on the establishment of the modern state, protecting its existence, and the call for reform. The path forward must incorporate the following:
1- Building a national consensus, enhancing leaders’ abilities to form alliances and coalitions, and abandoning a zero-sum mentality in the search of win-win solutions.
2- States must not rest only on the foundations of nationalism and ideology but must also clearly demonstrate its executive capabilities and achievements.
3- The idea that individuals are always in confrontation with institutions should be abandoned, opening the way for a model in which strong individuals can function in the context of strong institutions.
4- All social factions must be properly represented within the state’s institutions, embracing the objective of creating an inclusive political system.
Potential Future Scenarios
Professor Helal pointed that evaluating the status of stability in the Arab region in 2022 requires an analysis on three levels. On the International level, there are factors that will impact the interaction between the regional and global orders. For example, the mid-term elections in the US are important to the region in view of what they will indicate regarding the coming presidential race in two years. In France and Germany, there is preoccupation with domestic levels, as there will be presidential elections soon in France, while Germany is engrossed in negotiations over building the next government. The US is also preoccupied with the threat from China, which was reflected in the establishment of the AUKUS alliance with Australia and the United Kingdom. Moreover, the US is no longer willing to sacrifice any of its citizens in wars in the Middle East. This does not mean that the US will be abandoning the region entirely, or its regional allies. There are no vacuums in politics, any vacuum will be filled by other global powers.
On the Arab level, the economic and social recovery from the Coronavirus is likely to progress next year, while Syria may also be in a better situation as some Arab and international actors reevaluate their relations. Iraq’s situation will depend on the outcome of the elections, but special importance should be attributed to the role of Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kadhimi in renewing Iraqi ties to the Arab world. Relations between the Gulf Cooperation Council and Egypt, Jordan, and Morocco are expected to maintain their stability, and relations between Egypt, Jordan, and Iraq will continue to become closer. Despite all of these positive notes for the future of stability in the Arab world, some issues could potentially undermine inter-Arab relations, most notably the ongoing tensions between Morocco and Algeria. On the level of regional powers, Iran is seeking to impose settlements across the region according to its own terms, whilst Turkey militarized policies are likely to continue. On the other hand, a certain easing of the crisis in Yemen appears on the horizon as a result of exploratory talks between Iran and Saudi Arabia.