The increasing involvement of drug smuggling gangs in Syria presents a growing security challenge and crisis for its neighboring countries. This escalation has the potential to attract more transnational organized crime networks and obstruct the efforts of both internal and external parties engaged in the armed conflict, as these groups stand to gain from the profits of this illicit trade. Additionally, this situation may impede Arab nations’ willingness to engage with the Syrian regime. Furthermore, it underscores the risk of local smuggling gangs gaining parallel legitimacy within the communities they operate in. There is also the possibility of regional smuggling networks expanding and criminal gangs from neighboring countries becoming involved in this illicit trade.

In situations of armed conflict, especially in civil wars or conflicts involving non-state actors, various phenomena tend to emerge. One of the most significant consequences is the rise of cross-border smuggling operations, which exploit security vacuums and instability. The Syrian context is no exception, with the proliferation of smuggling networks, particularly for narcotics. The impact of these activities extends beyond Syria’s borders, posing serious security challenges for neighboring countries and the broader region. This is especially concerning due to the increasing activities of drug smuggling gangs and the establishment of regional networks.

Dangerous Developments

While the crisis surrounding the drug trade in Syria and its regional consequences has long been associated with escalating violence, recent years have witnessed a significant surge in the activities of smuggling gangs. Several indicators point to this concerning trend:

1. Rising Smuggling Operations into Jordan: Smuggling operations from Syria into Jordan have seen a stark uptick. Reports suggest that over 130 smuggling attempts, involving approximately 132 million Captagon pills, were executed. This figure soared to 361 smuggling attempts in 2021. In the current year, Jordanian authorities have already seized around 20 million Captagon pills originating from Syria. According to the Jordanian Anti-Narcotics Department, drug-related cases in the country have surged from September 2021 to early 2022, with 13,000 drug-related cases recorded, alongside 3,235 cases linked to smuggling and distribution.

2. Violent Clashes with Jordanian Forces: It is evident that drug smuggling gangs are increasingly resorting to violent confrontations with Jordanian border control forces tasked with countering smuggling operations. This escalation in violence coincides with Jordan’s shift in engagement rules along its northern border with Syria. Smuggling gangs appear to intensify these confrontations as a means of conveying their unwavering commitment to their illicit activities. In some instances, these groups have even resorted to firing upon Jordanian border guards, underscoring their determination to continue smuggling and their avoidance of returning to the Syrian interior to evade confrontation.

3. Escalation in Regional Drug Trade: Media reports have indicated a significant increase in the volume of the drug trade in the Middle East, particularly involving “Captagon,” reaching over 5 billion dollars in 2021. In March, the United States and the United Kingdom imposed sanctions on 11 individuals in Syria associated with the Syrian regime due to their involvement in the drug trade, specifically “Captagon.” British Middle East Minister Tariq Ahmad was quoted in media reports, noting that the “Captagon trade” had reached 57 billion dollars, attributing this lucrative trade to businessmen, militias, and relatives of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

4. Syria’s Evolution into a Drug-Producing Nation: Over the course of the protracted decade-long conflict in Syria, the country has undergone a significant transformation. It has shifted from serving merely as a transit hub for drug shipments to actively engaging in drug manufacturing. This transformation has prompted organized crime groups to expand their network of transit countries within Syria’s geographical proximity, facilitating the distribution of these narcotics. In this context, Jordan plays a pivotal role.

5. Advancements in Tools to Facilitate Smuggling: In response to the burgeoning drug trade originating from Syria, smuggling gangs have turned to developing tools that streamline their operations and reduce the risk of detection along the Jordanian border. Notably, they have employed small-sized drones for transporting drugs across borders, thereby avoiding direct encounters with Jordanian forces. These smuggling operations, which rely on border infiltration, continue unabated. Additionally, the adoption of night vision goggles has become a common practice among these gangs, indicating the involvement of various parties in supplying such equipment and possibly other tools to enhance smuggling activities.

Potential Ramifications

The proliferation and intensification of drug smuggling gang activities emanating from Syria carry several grave security, political, and social consequences. These repercussions extend beyond Syria’s borders, affecting neighboring countries and the broader regional landscape. The most prominent potential consequences encompass:

1. Attraction of International Transnational Organized Crime Syndicates: The enduring factor behind the escalation of drug smuggling and the narcotics trade, particularly in the Syrian context, is the prolonged violence that has persisted for an extended period. Conflict zones like Syria become enticing prospects for international transnational organized crime syndicates, which operate across borders. With the heightened activity of smuggling gangs within Syria, there exists the distinct possibility that these international organized crime syndicates will venture into the drug trade within Syria to reap the substantial financial rewards it offers. Given the ongoing Syrian crisis, these transnational gangs are likely to remain allured, operating across continents from Latin America to Africa and Asia. They exploit the instability in conflict zones and security tensions.

Transnational organized crime syndicates depend on establishing smuggling and drug trade routes connecting conflict-ridden countries, traversing manufacturing regions to reach “transit” areas before distribution. Syria has acquired particular significance in this context as it has transitioned from being a mere “transit” nation to a state actively engaged in drug manufacturing.

2. Impediment to Internal Parties in Syrian Crisis Settlement: International institutions and think tanks, including the Norwegian Center for Global Analyses “RHIPTO,” estimate that around 28% of revenues for non-state armed groups and terrorist organizations in conflict zones are derived from the drug trade. It’s important to note that most of these revenues are collected through “taxes or levies” imposed on smuggling gangs rather than direct involvement in the drug trade itself.

In Syria, groups like ISIS and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham have been collecting revenues from the drug trade, alongside pro-regime militias involved in drug-related activities. Even prominent figures within the Syrian regime have faced allegations of drug trade involvement. Given Syria’s economic hardships since the onset of the armed conflict, there’s a possibility that internal parties may hinder potential political settlement paths to continue benefiting from the proceeds of the drug trade or the levies imposed on smuggling gangs.

3. Limited Response from External Parties to Political Settlements: Media reports, citing Western intelligence sources and sources from Syria’s neighboring countries, suggest the involvement of external parties in the Syrian crisis and the drug trade. This includes reported Iranian connections with militias supporting the Syrian regime engaged in drug-related activities and allegations against Hezbollah. Despite Hezbollah’s Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah’s denial of involvement in the drug trade in May 2023, intelligence assessments have linked the organization to drug-related activities.

If these intelligence reports hold true, it is expected that these external parties may not respond positively to settlement paths for the Syrian crisis, as they stand to gain financially from the drug trade and distribution. This could pose obstacles to any potential resolutions for the Syrian crisis, further complicating the drug trade issue. This is particularly significant as Iran faces Western sanctions, and illicit trade serves as an economic resource. Similar economic crises in Lebanon may also make the drug trade appealing to Hezbollah. In this context, Western intelligence reports have linked Iran and Hezbollah to a network involved in transborder drug trade extending to South America and Africa.

4. Legitimizing Local Trafficking Gangs: Western studies highlight the importance of distinguishing between state monopolization of violence and the legitimacy of the state, as the former doesn’t necessarily enhance the state’s legitimacy in conflict areas. This is especially pertinent as state legitimacy and sovereignty over the entire territory diminish. In such scenarios, armed groups challenging the state can gain legitimacy within local communities affected by the conflict.

In Syria, certain opposition forces, actively challenging state authority through violence, have managed to establish legitimacy and control over specific geographic areas. This dynamic may also extend to local trafficking gangs operating within these communities. Through illicit activities, these gangs provide funds to meet the basic needs of these communities. Additionally, there’s potential for these gangs to recruit individuals from these communities into drug smuggling and production within Syria.

5. Impeding Regional Settlements with the Syrian Regime: The dismantling of illicit economic networks, including drug trafficking, often lags behind political and security settlements related to violent conflicts in countries. This delay is a significant concern in ongoing conflicts, as these illicit networks can impede regional political settlements, as seen in Syria’s recent engagement with its Arab counterparts. This issue represents a prominent security challenge that demands immediate attention and discussion between Syrian officials and their Arab counterparts.

It’s important to note that despite Syria’s response and discussions with its Arab counterparts regarding the security threats posed by escalating drug trafficking gang activities originating from Syria, it faces a dilemma beyond mere intentions. Certain parties involved in the Syrian crisis can benefit from the proliferation and increased activity of the drug trade.

6. Expansion of Regional Drug Trade Networks: The escalation of drug trafficking gang activities from Syria into neighboring countries has the potential to fuel the growth of regional drug trade networks. This situation can attract criminal groups from neighboring countries to engage in the drug trade due to the significant financial gains associated with it, as evidenced by the rising number of drug-related cases in Jordan, as previously mentioned. With the continued expansion of smuggling gang activities, this could lead to the establishment of extensive networks for drug trafficking and smuggling across regional borders, potentially linked to international drug trafficking networks.

Escalating Security Concerns

The increasing activities of drug trafficking gangs pose a growing security concern, particularly for Syria’s neighboring countries, with Jordan being a significant transit point for drug distribution to other regional nations. The complexity of this crisis is compounded by the potential inability of the Syrian state to effectively combat the surging activities of these trafficking gangs. This challenge is further exacerbated by the involvement of both internal and external actors in this illicit trade, with some potential connections to the Syrian regime, as outlined in Western narratives.

In response to this pressing issue, the neighboring countries of Syria, as well as Arab states, are actively seeking agreements with the Syrian regime to address the activities of these trafficking gangs. This includes preparations to confront cross-border smuggling activities and the implementation of heightened security measures to combat various forms of smuggling. These efforts entail increased investments in equipment and advanced technological resources aimed at thwarting smuggling operations.