Domestic and external threats to the national security of Arab states have steadily escalated over the last decade, a topic addressed by the Arab World Center for Research and Advanced Studies in a workshop in Cairo, August 17th, 2021, in which A number of experts on regional issues participated, including Dr. Mohamed Ezz Al-Arab, Dr. Muhammad Abbas Naji, Ms. Karen Aboul Kheir, Mr. Ahmed Eleiba, and Mr. Ahmed Kamel El-Beheiri.
Domestic threats
The participants in the workshop emphasized the diversity of threats facing Arab national security, and the multiplicity of their sources. Dr. Muhammad Ezz Al-Arab kicked off the discussion with a review of the domestic sources of threat identified by ruling elites. The most important of these sources is the threat of terrorism, and the growing role of armed groups and militias, which is likely to escalate following Taliban’s ascent to power in Afghanistan. The presence of foreign fighters, or mercenaries in some Arab countries also pose a threat to stability and security.
On the political level, Islamist political movements continue to pose a challenge to some Arab regimes, as well as the conflict between different wings of the same regime, asDr. Ezz Al-Arab pointed out, such as the case of Tunisia. Moreover, new ruling elites in countries which have witnessed political changes as the result of popular uprisings, such as Algeria and Sudan, believe that members of previous regime continue to pose a threat , and are impeding the transitional phase.
There are also Non-traditional threats to the security of Arab countries. Dr. Ezz Al-Arab drew attention to climate change, water scarcity, population growth and epidemics as particularly important.
Regional variables
Dr. Muhammad Abbas Nagy explored threats on the regional level, emphasizing several sources of threat. The first of these is Taliban’s ascent to power in Afghanistan, which may serve as a catalyst for the revival of fundamentalist movements in the Arab region. It is also possible that cooperation could occur between the Taliban and some regional forces, in an attempt to replicate the Taliban model in some Arab countries, especially those which are experiencing armed conflict.
The second potential threat to Arab security is the Iranian nuclear issue. Dr. Nagy noted that the nuclear agreement does not prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons down the road, with the negotiations only serving to delay Tehran’s access to nuclear weapons. Other threats include “roaming militias”, or armed fighters that move from one conflict zone to another, such as from Syria to Libya, and the worsening water scarcity in several Arab countries, which has exacerbated conflict and negatively impacted economic activity and food security.
The Afghanistan dilemma
Current developments in Afghanistan received special attention during the discussion. Mr. Ahmed Elieba argued that the situation in Afghanistan has a direct impact on the security of the Arab region, putting the region at risk in view of the ambiguity over Washington’s stance. US President Joe Biden’s administration appears to lack a coordinated strategy towards the Arab region but deals differently with various Arab countries.
This is particularly true with regards to military arrangements, as the US administration focuses on the need to withdraw from the region, while at the same time it repeatedly puts arms sales to countries in the region under review. In the meantime, US allies are being challenged by various forms of asymmetrical warfare, which their conventional defense systems appear unable to confront. The capabilities of some non-state actors have become especially developed, such as the Houthis in Yemen, who were recently able to down US Scan Eagle spy drones over Yemeni territory.
This ambiguity surrounding military arrangements in the region coincides with growing interventions by non-Arab regional powers in the affairs of a number of Arab countries. Furthermore, some Arab countries are facing difficulties in rebuilding their national armies, such as Libya. The existence of armed militias and mercenary groups, in Libya and elsewhere, creates a complex landscape of competing forces. Moreover, some countries such as Russia and Turkey, have been using the conflicts in Syria and Libya as testing arenas for new weapons and military strategies.
Mr. Eleiba pointed out that in the context of ambiguity regarding the future US security role in the region, and escalating intervention by some non-Arab regional countries, such as Iran and Turkey, Arab countries are further weakened by the absence of joint Arab security arrangements and structures.
Terror
For his part, Mr. El-Beheiry discussed the complex threats posed by terrorist organizations to the countries of the region. A variety of terrorist organizations are active in the Arab world, whose strength and activity are affected by various factors, including their different intellectual and ideological frameworks, and the degree to which they are embedded embedded in their domestic environmen.
Moreover, there are organizational linkages between some local organizations and others which have regional or international presence, such as ISIS or Al-Qaeda. These organizations are able to exploit the fragility and weakness of some Arab states, and the conditions of conflict in others, such as Libya and Syria. Such countries have become scenes of competition between terrorist organizations over new recruits, which at times erupts into open conflict between them.
Mr Beheiri pointed out that in contrast to weak military coordination, Security cooperation between Arab states in confronting the threat of terrorist organizations is strong. However, problems remain, especially in the absence of a unified, agreed upon definition of what constitutes a terrorist organization. There are also disagreements within Arab societies regarding counter-terrorism strategies, as they were not subjected toa broad societal dialogue, all of which weakens to some extent efforts to combat the continuing threat of terrorist organisations.
International influences
In her analysis, Ms. Karen Aboul Kheir pointed out that the Arab region is impacted by multiple external transformations, which will have negative repercussions on its economic progress and political stability. These include the fragmentation of power on the global level, as there is no longer a global power capable of guaranteeing the security of any country in the region. This applies to all international powers, including the United States, China, and Russia, as they, and other smaller powers, such as Japan, India, France, Britain, as well as neighboring countries such as Turkey and Iran, now compete for a greater position within the international system. While many countries view this situation as an opportunity to achieve gains, it represents a source of risks, as the Arab world is divided among these multiple projects, and conflicting interests, which could undermine Arab cooperation and threaten Arab security.
Moreover, on a strategic level, the region is declining in importance in the face of rising interest in the ‘Indo-Pacific” region. That region has become a point of focus for the United States and European countries, in addition to India, Japan, and Australia, as an arena in which to confront and contained rising China and its growing cooperation with Russia. In this context, the Arab region is regarded more as a strategic corridor and gateway to the Indo-Pacific region. In this context, interest in securing access to ports, military bases, energy and trade corridors, has increased, while interest in supporting economic and social development in the Arab region on the part of these powers is diminishing.
This comes at a time when the region is facing growing challenges to its economic and social wellbeing as a result of climate change, which has resulted in rising temperatures, severe water shortages and diminishing agricultural production. In addition, climate change and conflicts in adjoining regions, such as southern Asia, are likely to spur further waves of migration which the west is not inclined to absorb, Afghanistan being the most recent example in this respect. The Arab region is likely to be required to absorb these new waves, to act as a barrier shielding the west from their growing numbers, which will put further stress on the region’s natural resources and economic structures.
Suggested policies
Participants in the workshop stressed the need for Arab countries to adopt a number of proposed policies to confront these various threats, including:
- Developing military expertise and capabilities, as experience shows that Arab countries’ strength are armies capable of maintaining the stability and cohesion of nation states, confronting the threat of terrorist organizations, extremist groups, and crime gangs, removing foreign armed groups from conflict hotspots, and liberating geographical areas from the control of armed militias. This is in addition to the implementation of a well-managed healthcare system to deal with the repercussions of the spread of the Covid-19 pandemic.
- Strengthening areas of consensus and coordination between Arab countries, whether in the fields of security or economic cooperation. This has been a developing trend in recent months, such as the strengthening relations between Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, as well as developing relations between Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Qatar, in addition to Egypt, Iraq, and Jordan.
- Cooling disputes with regional powers, which Arab countries appear to be promoting as in calming tensions with Turkey and Saudi Arabia’s measures to calm tensions with Iran and support dialogue between the two to resolve the Yemen crisis.
Overall, in order to protect their national security, Arab countries must adopt an interest driven mode of interaction with international powers, as this level of cooperation remains important on a large number of issues, ranging from the procurement of arms to vaccines to oil production and policing issues