In an effort to build a national consensus on electoral laws, UN envoy to Libya, Abdoulaye Bathily, is actively working on a new initiative. The focus of this initiative is to convene major political stakeholders at a new dialogue table with the goal of addressing differences ahead of the upcoming elections. Notable participants in this dialogue include internationally recognized entities such as the Presidential Council, the House of Representatives, the leadership of the national army, the Government of National Unity, and the High Council of State.
Despite Bathily’s efforts, several formidable obstacles have emerged, potentially jeopardizing the initiative from the outset. Challenges range from varying stances among Libyan factions—ranging from outright rejection to cautious acceptance and skepticism towards the initiative and the call for dialogue. Additionally, the House of Representatives has expressed reservations about the invitation, citing its exclusion of the “Stability” government led by Osama Hamad, appointed by the parliament. Meanwhile, other political entities have remained silent on the invitation. This complexity is further compounded by the existing discord between the House of Representatives and the High Council of State regarding the laws that will serve as the foundation for the upcoming elections.
Primary Motivations: Understanding the Challenges
Several factors contribute to the challenges facing Abdoulaye Bathily’s initiative and his call for dialogue in Libya. The most notable reasons include:
- Divergence of Positions on Bathily’s Dialogue Invitation: Abdoulaye Bathily’s invitation for what was termed the “Big Five” dialogue received mixed reactions. While some parties expressed reservations, others gave implicit acceptance. However, certain political factions, especially those representing southern Libya, outright rejected it. Members of both the House of Representatives and the State Council from the southern region preempted Bathily’s invitation by issuing a joint statement rejecting it. They believed that Bathily had confined the political solution in Libya to these five entities, none of which adequately represented southern Libya.
Moreover, the government appointed by the House of Representatives—the Stability government—voiced disapproval, citing the “involvement of an expired-term government.” This referred to the Government of National Unity led by Abdul Hamid Dbeibah. The Stability government firmly rejected the participation of both the Dbeibah government and the Presidential Council in the dialogue.
- House of Representatives Rejects Participation in Dialogue: The Libyan Parliament has formally declined Bathily’s invitation, and this rejection extends beyond a simple refusal. In a released statement, the Council accused the UN mission of “lacking neutrality and displaying bias towards specific parties, thereby contributing to the deepening divisions and fractures among the Libyan people.”
In its official statement, the House of Representatives criticized Bathily’s stance regarding the Stability government, endorsed by the Council. The statement emphasized “his failure to extend an invitation to this government for the dialogue, despite its vote of confidence, while extending an invitation to the Government of National Unity, which has exceeded its legal mandate.” This underscores that the House of Representatives’ firm refusal to engage in the dialogue is unlikely to waver unless the UN envoy extends an invitation to the government led by Osama Hamad, appointed by the Council.
- Disputes Between the House of Representatives and the State Council: Bathily’s invitation stems from disagreements over the outcomes of the “6+6” committee, a collaborative effort by both councils aimed at formulating laws governing parliamentary and presidential elections. This contention heightened, especially after the House of Representatives, in early October, endorsed a modified version of the electoral laws.
Despite the endorsement of the electoral laws by the Libyan House of Representatives, in alignment with Constitutional Amendment “13” mutually agreed upon with the State Council and established through the collaborative “6+6” committee, the disagreement persists. The House of Representatives emphasizes the necessity of forming a new government to oversee the elections. In contrast, the State Council adheres to the unaltered version of the laws completed by the committee in early June, following discussions in the Moroccan city of Bouznika.
- Criticisms from the Libyan Interior Towards the UN Envoy: Abdoulaye Bathily is confronting multifaceted criticisms within Libya, stemming from some of his recent actions and statements, particularly those related to electoral laws. In his recent briefing before the United Nations Security Council, he expressed reservations about the election laws approved by the parliament and formulated by the “6+6” committee.
Furthermore, accusations of Bathily overstepping his authority and interfering in Libyan affairs have been leveled by certain parliamentarians and Libyan politicians. This is based on the contention that he lacks the mandate to intervene in electoral laws, whether to approve or reject them. Notably, figures like Aqeela Saleh, the President of the House of Representatives, have accused Bathily, stating in recent local media interviews that he is attempting to “interfere in legislation,” implying that Libya’s legal system is vulnerable to external influences.
- Absence of a “Precise Initiative” in the Literal Sense: What the UN envoy to Libya has recently presented does not precisely constitute a “new initiative.” Instead, discussions revolve around an attempt to revisit what he had previously proposed in his briefing before the United Nations Security Council last October. On that occasion, he called upon key leaders in Libya for dialogue, aiming to reach consensus and expedite the electoral process.
Moreover, it is evident that Bathily is reverting to his deferred initiative, initially launched in March. This initiative involves the “establishment of a high-level committee bringing together stakeholders and Libyan leaders, including representatives from political institutions, prominent political figures in Libya, tribal leaders, and civil society organizations, in addition to representatives of women and youth.”
Trust Dilemma
It could be argued that what the UN envoy is attempting to convey is not so much a novel initiative as a revisiting of what he previously emphasized as the imperative to “establish a high-level steering committee to formulate the constitutional and legal framework for elections,” a matter deferred since 2021. Notably, after a year in his UN mission, Bathily is once again trying to engage with conflicting leaders in the country regarding power dynamics.
However, the striking observation lies in the divergence of stances among these political figures, rooted in a “trust dilemma” concerning the conduct of elections. This dilemma raises the prospect that Bathily might introduce alterations to the future strategy for addressing the Libyan crisis. Nevertheless, these alterations will likely be contingent, in the days ahead, upon international variables, signifying that Libyan elections will proceed only through consensus among the nations involved in the dossier.