Although the US on the 30th of October flew a B1-B Lancer Bomber over the Middle East, in an apparent message to both its allies and adversaries, this does not mean that this region has not moved lower on the US priority list, for reasons related to its national interests, its domestic politics, and growing competition with China in the Indo-Pacific region. The change in US strategy towards the region has pushed all parties in the Middle East to re-evaluate their positions regarding some major transformations the region is experiencing.
This has led interactions in the Middle East to be characterized by a marked degree of fluidity. The Biden Administration’s change in policy regarding regional crises was partly the stimulus for new regional realignments, which have been manifested in several developments, including:
Russian – Turkish cooperation. Unprecedented tensions between the US and Turkey over the last 5 years has pushed Turkey to enhance its strategic relations with Russia. Economic cooperation has expanded, with bilateral trade estimated at over 25 billion dollars. Military relations between the two countries have also witnessed an unprecedented spike, with Turkey purchasing the S-400 missile defense system from Russia, despite US sanctions being imposed on the Department of Turkish Defense Industries and its head Ismail Damir. These sanctions are prescribed by the CAATSA Law, issued in 2017, which decrees those countries dealing with Iran, North Korea and Russia, must be sanctioned. US President Joe Biden expressed his concerns regarding these agreements in his latest meeting with Turkish President Erdogan last October, yet Turkey appears to be pushing ahead with the deal.
China- Iran strategic agreement. China has concluded a new comprehensive strategic agreement with Iran that covers a period of 25 years last March, which focuses on economic and security Cooperation, and promised 400 billion dollars of Chinese investments, in return for Iranian oil shipments to China. This agreement comes in the context of Chinese efforts to shore up relations with Middle East countries and affirm its commitment to the region’s security and stability, as well as its opposition to foreign interventions there. This is consistent with China’s aspirations to increase its investments in the development projects being undertaking by several Middle East countries within the framework of its Belt and Road initiative.
Arab rapprochement with Assad regime. There have been growing indications recently of an Arab rapprochement with the Assad regime. Jordan’s King Abdallah met the Syrian President Bashar Al Assad, for the first time in over a decade, on the 3rd of October 2021. The Syrian/Jordanian borders were also re-opened for the first time on the 29th of September preceding the visit. Amman has been directly involved in the Egyptian – Lebanese deal that involves moving gas through Syria, and also has plans to export electricity to Lebanon through Syria. Some reports indicate that US allies in the region are calling on the Biden administration to lift the sanctions on Syria, allowing it to be reintegrated in the region.
Growing Chinese arms Sales. Chinese arms sales to the region are currently limited, however, they are likely to increase in the future as China seeks to make gains on the back of US reservations regarding weapon’s sales to its allies in the region. Moreover, some of Washington’s adversaries in the region are eager to acquire Chinese arms. China may also seek to promote the sales of its weapons to the Middle East in the context of its growing competition with the US in general.
New players in Afghanistan. with US withdrawal from Afghanistan in full swing, various actors from the region and beyond are seeking to establish presence and influence there. Iran has emerged as one of the major players in this respect, and its ambassador to Kabul, Bahdar Amnein, met with the Taliban Foreign Minister Amir Khan on the 23rd of October to affirm Iran’s interest in investing in various Afghan sectors, including mining, trade, and health. Iran played host on the 27th of October, to a conference of the foreign ministers of Afghanistan’s neighboring countries plus Russia. The conference discussed the future of Afghanistan and called for the creation of a new government. Iran, who maintains contacts with various elements in Afghan society, a civil war in could breakout there, which would directly impact Iran’s security, especially in view of the difficulty in securing the long borders between the two countries. Iran, in cooperation with other regional players, is trying to convince the Taliban to create a power-sharing government which includes all ethnic and sectarian groups, and views this as an important step that would reinforce its position in Afghanistan and confront the consequences of US withdrawal.
Both Russia and China have tried to establish presence and influence in Afghanistan following US withdrawal, although some US analysts believe that this involvement is likely to prove a distraction and a drain on the two countries’ resources. In particular, the potential rise of terrorism associated with Taliban rule will pose an important challenge to their national security.
China hopes to make significant economic gains from Afghanistan’s mineral resources, as well as from Taliban’s endorsement of the Belt and Road initiative, and participation in, and extending, the “economic corridor” between China and Pakistan. China’s newfound closeness with the Taliban comes in the context of its competition with the US for influence in Central Asia.
In conclusion, it appears that the changing US strategy towards the Middle East has put in motion changing patterns of interaction between regional and international players, as they seek to adapt to new political and security realities now developing in various regions of the world in response to changing US policy.