The US forces in Syria are actively engaged in operations to target the leadership and prominent members of the ISIS organization. In their latest operation, they focused on Osama Al-Muhajir, one of the organization’s leaders located in eastern Syria. It is important to note that an aerial drone strike was employed, eliminating the need for a parachute drop or ground operation to apprehend him.

The American decision to persistently target Al-Muhajir, despite objections from Russia regarding US actions, can be interpreted as a direct response to Russia’s attempts to restrict American access to Syrian airspace. This operation also serves to exert pressure on Turkey, discouraging its attempts to gain control over territories held by armed factions loyal to them. Furthermore, it demonstrates the US’s determination to continue dismantling the networks of ISIS while retaining intelligence access within Syria, allowing them to identify and reach influential figures within the group.

On July 7, 2023, the US Central Command declared the successful targeting of Osama Al-Muhajir. This operation employed MQ-9 drones to carry out a precise drone strike. The US Central Command reaffirmed its commitment to ongoing efforts in countering the organization, recognizing its persistent threat.

During the airstrike aimed at “Al-Muhajir,” Russian aircraft interfered for a duration of two hours. However, the official US statement explicitly states that no evidence of civilian casualties emerged from this airstrike.

Targeting Dimensions

The dimensions of the US targeting operation against the “ISIS” leader Osama Al-Muhajir can be discussed within the context of American operations since the beginning of 2023 to confront the organization in Syria, as follows:

1. The recent targeting of Al-Muhajir marks the sixth operation announced by the US Central Command via its official website since January of the previous year. These operations specifically aim to pursue prominent leaders and influential individuals involved in the operational activities of the ISIS branch in Syria. Notably, April witnessed the highest rate of targeting leadership and prominent elements, with a total of three operations, while no operations were recorded in March, May, and June.

It is worth mentioning that the US forces had not conducted operations targeting ISIS leadership for over two months until the targeting of Al-Muhajir on July 7th. This operation stands out as the last one occurred on April 17th, resulting in the elimination of a prominent leader named Abdul Hadi Mahmoud Al-Hajj.

An overview of the operations carried out by the US forces under the Central Command’s purview against the ISIS organization in Iraq and Syria reveals a stronger emphasis on countering the organization in Iraq compared to Syria. This can be observed from the total number of operations conducted in both countries since the beginning of 2023, as indicated in the monthly reports of the US forces.

Despite acknowledging a decline in the operational activities of ISIS in both Iraq and Syria, the United States has maintained its focus on countering the organization in Iraq during the first half of the current year. A total of 170 operations (details unspecified) were conducted in Iraq, whereas 71 operations (details unspecified) took place in Syria.

2. The US Central Command employed an MQ-9s drone in a drone airstrike to target Al-Muhajir. However, this approach has been diminishing in the Syrian theater since the previous year, notably following the ISIS attack on Ghweran prison in January 2022, where the group attempted to free its members.

There have been noticeable adjustments in the US strategy to counter ISIS by prioritizing the dismantling of the organization’s networks in Syria. Consequently, US forces have increasingly relied on airborne operations or providing air support to field movements, often in collaboration with the Syrian Democratic Forces, to apprehend prominent leaders and individuals and gather vital information about the structure of ISIS.

Among the six operations announced by the US Central Command in Syria, four operations involved “helicopter airstrikes,” indicating a field operation aimed at capturing the targeted individuals. In the recent July operation, Al-Muhajir was targeted through a drone strike. However, the attack method used in the operation announced on April 4th remains unclear, as the statement lacked specific details and only referred to an “airstrike,” suggesting the possibility of a drone’s involvement.

3. The statement released by the US Central Command did not provide specific details regarding the precise location of the targeting operation against Al-Muhajir. However, it did mention that he was a leader of ISIS in eastern Syria, an area falling under the influence of the Syrian Democratic Forces. This region is where US forces and the international coalition against ISIS are stationed.

Nonetheless, the Associated Press reported a statement from a US defense official who claimed that the targeting operation occurred in Aleppo while Al-Muhajir was riding a motorcycle. According to the official, three drones were employed to track him before the strike. It was also noted that Al-Muhajir primarily operates in eastern Syria.

Targeting Al-Muhajir in Aleppo raises several inquiries, particularly regarding the possibility of executing the operation within the area of US influence in eastern Syria. This prompts considerations of whether a parachute drop or a field operation accompanied by aerial support was attempted to apprehend him.

Local reports have linked the US statement to the targeting of an individual riding a motorcycle on July 7, 2023, along the road connecting the city of Al-Bab to the town of Bizaa. This location falls under the control of Turkish forces and their allied factions in the eastern countryside of Aleppo.

4. According to the US account, Russian aircraft reportedly impeded American drone flights in Syrian airspace over a span of three days. Allegedly, the Russian aircraft intercepted American drones from Wednesday until Friday (July 7, 2023), coinciding with the same day Al-Muhajir was targeted.

While Russia claims that their aircraft were engaged in joint exercises with Syrian counterparts, the US statement suggests that the Russian aircraft flew in close proximity to the American drones in an “unsafe and unprofessional manner”. Moreover, on the preceding Thursday (July 6), Russian aircraft purportedly fired “warning shots” ahead of the American drones, disrupting their operations against terrorist organizations in Syria.

The interception of Russian aircraft impeding American drones goes beyond obstructing US operations against ISIS and carries broader implications for the tensions between the two countries, particularly in the context of the Ukrainian situation.

Key Significances

The targeting operation of Al-Muhajir and its main dimensions indicate several significant implications, with the most prominent being the unprecedented Russian-American friction in Syrian airspace. The following are some of the key significances that can be addressed:

1. Confronting Russia’s limitation of US aerial access: According to the American account, the drones tracking and targeting “Al-Muhajir” faced interception by Russian aircraft for three consecutive days. This raises a central question about why the US forces in Syria did not halt the targeting operation against the “ISIS” leader based on these developments. However, it becomes evident that the US was determined to target “Al-Muhajir” in Aleppo without waiting for his movement to eastern Syria.

The American determination could be linked to countering Russia’s attempts to limit American access to Syrian airspace, especially considering that Russian aircraft intentionally obstructed the flights of American drones. On the other hand, the US forces did not withdraw the drones but remained evasive for one hour on July 6 and two hours on July 7. Although this friction is connected to the repercussions of tensions between the two countries in the Ukrainian crisis, it is also linked to the US forces’ execution of operations outside their traditional sphere of influence in northeastern Syria in 2022. These operations were conducted in areas under the control of the Syrian Democratic Forces, including northwest Syria, which falls under de-escalation zones. Some operations even took place in areas influenced by armed groups affiliated with the opposition.

However, the most notable aspect is the first-time operation executed in an area under Syrian government control (October 2022). The recent interception of American drones may be Russia’s attempt to restrict the scope of American aerial operations.

2. The targeting operation against Al-Muhajir can be interpreted as a means for the United States to exert pressure on Turkey concerning its actions in northern Syria. This is particularly relevant due to the fragile security situation in areas controlled by Turkey-affiliated armed factions. According to local reports, these areas have become havens for ISIS leaders within the local population, serving as planning centers for terrorist activities.

Furthermore, this operation aligns with previous actions carried out by US forces, specifically over the past year, in regions influenced and controlled by Turkey-affiliated factions. This highlights the United States’ intelligence capabilities in accessing these areas. In contrast, Ankara has faced challenges in intensifying its efforts to combat the organization, resulting in a critical situation for Turkey. Most operations targeting ISIS leaders and elements have been associated with infiltration or hiding within Turkish territory, with limited operations conducted in northern Syria. An example of this was the announcement of the killing of an ISIS leader in May 2023, which has neither been confirmed nor denied by the organization, despite over two months having passed since the incident.

3. Despite the decline in ISIS activities in Syria, the targeting operation against Al-Muhajir demonstrates the determination to maintain pressure on the organization. This operation focuses on eliminating leaders and influential individuals who provide financial and logistical support to active ISIS groups in the northeastern region of Syria. The objective is to weaken the organization’s networks in that specific area, where forces from the US-led international coalition are deployed.

The US forces are engaged in various types of operations, including targeting leadership figures, conducting joint patrols with the Syrian Democratic Forces, and carrying out field raids to apprehend individuals involved with the organization. Monthly reports from the US Central Command indicate the arrest of dozens of individuals during the first half of this year, although specific details regarding the operations leading to these arrests have not been disclosed.

4. Continued Intelligence Efforts Targeting Influential Leaders: The attempted breach of Guweiran prison by ISIS in 2022 remains a major concern for the United States and the Syrian Democratic Forces. There is a fear of potential repercussions if ISIS elements are freed from prisons and camps. As a result, the United States is exerting pressure on countries to repatriate their citizens from these facilities.

In light of this situation, US forces are concentrating their operations on targeting influential field commanders who play a significant role in planning the organization’s activities and undermining its combat capabilities. This is especially crucial considering that Al-Muhajir is regarded as one of the prominent leaders of the organization in eastern Syria, as classified by the United States.

Potential Implications

The United States is actively engaged in multi-level operations to counter ISIS as part of its commitment to allies and partners in the Middle East. However, the recent developments in the Syrian arena during July have raised questions about the extent of their impact on US efforts to combat ISIS. One such development is the interception of American drones by Russian aircraft.

There is a growing concern regarding the potential escalation of tensions between the United States and Russia in the Syrian arena, particularly in the context of the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian crisis. This concern is heightened by the fact that the Russian Hmeimim airbase in Syria has reported 1602 violations by the international coalition in Syrian airspace.