Algeria’s decision on August 24 to cut diplomatic ties with Morocco was not a surprise, even for Morocco. The move came as a result of accumulated disagreements between the two countries that recently escalated, especially with regard to the Sahara issue, and the exchange of accusations over interference in internal affairs. These tensions escalated within the context of growing competition at the regional level, for a wider political and economic presence in Africa, as well as different stances regarding Iran’s regional role. The end result was that both countries came to view the other as a threat to national security.

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On August 24, Algerian Foreign Minister Ramtane Lamamra announced the severance of diplomatic relations with Morocco, effective immediately. He added that consulates would remain open, and it was likely that citizens of both countries would not be affected by the decision. It is worth noting that Algeria paved the way for this decision, about a week prior to its announcement, when it indicated, on August 18^th that it would reconsider its relations with Morocco after being accused of carrying out hostile acts.

Algeria’s decision to sever ties with Morocco came shortly after a renewed invitation by Moroccan King Mohammed VI to Algeria, on August 1^st, to open the borders between the two countries, which have been closed since 1994. It also came days after the government instructed the ministers of foreign affairs and the interior to inform their Algerian counterparts of Morocco’s willingness to assist in efforts to extinguish the fires that recently broke out in Algeria.

Numerous explanations

It can be argued that there are a number of reasons that led to the deterioration in relations between Algeria and Morocco, including:

1. A shifting balance on the Sahara issue: The Sahara issue remains a contentious point in the disputes between Algeria and Morocco. While this dispute is not new, it has reemerged recently due to a number of developments, specifically  Morocco’s success in attracting the support of several parties on the international and regional levels for its position on the issue. The United States’ recognition of the Moroccan Sahara during the Trump administration on December 10^th, 2020, was the most important development that strengthened the Moroccan position at the African and international levels. It was viewed by many as an unprecedented geopolitical victory for Morocco. This US stance was rejected by Algeria, which asserted that it contradicts all United Nations resolutions, especially Security Council resolutions on the Sahara, and therefore had no legal merit.
   
2. Growing Moroccan influence in Africa: Rabat has made a major change in its policy regarding relations with African countries since January 30, 2017, when it regained membership in the African Union. It had withdrawn from the Organization following its decision in 1984 to accept membership in the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic. Morocco’s move revealed its awareness of  the impact its absence from the African arena has had on  African positions regarding this issue, especially in light of the strong Algerian presence in Africa and Algeria’s strong relations with many pivotal African powers such as Nigeria, South Africa, and Ethiopia, where the African Union is headquartered.
   
   King Mohammed VI of Morocco made about 50 visits to 27 African countries between 2000 and 2017, demonstrating Rabat’s growing interest in strengthening  relations with African countries, and obtaining support for its position on the Sahara issue. According to a report issued by the Directorate of Financial Studies and Forecasts of the Moroccan Ministry of Economy and Finance, at the beginning of April 2021 Moroccan investments in the African continent had risen from MAD 907 million in 2007, to MAD 5.4 billion dirhams in 2019, with a USD: MAD rate of 8.99. This represents 47% of all Moroccan investments abroad. Investments are distributed across numerous African countries such as Côte d’Ivoire (13% of Moroccan direct investments to the African continent in 2019), Chad (12%), Senegal (9%), Madagascar (7%), Cameroon (4%), and Mauritius (3%).
   
   Malawi, for example, was one of the African countries that changed its position on the Polisario Front, after it withdrew its recognition in 2017, in conjunction with Morocco’s return to the African Union. It also opened a consulate in the city of El-Ayoun in the Sahara, bringing the number of countries that opened consulates there to 24 countries as of the end of July 2021.
   
3. Escalating conflict over energy corridors: The competition between Algeria and Morocco to become a strategic hub for energy transfer from Africa to Europe has increased.  Following Algeria’s announcement of its decision to sever diplomatic ties, Foreign Minister Ramtane Lamamra referred to this specific issue, noting the measures that his country will take regarding the pipeline that supplies Europe with Algerian gas through Moroccan territory, the agreement of which ends on October 31. Lamamra stated, “With regard to the gas issue, a decision will be taken by hydrocarbon company Sonatrach, after conducting an assessment in accordance with international considerations and what is commensurate with the new situation.” Although Morocco had announced its desire to extend the agreement prior to the severance of ties, Lamamra’s statements indicate that the future of this agreement has become shrouded in uncertainty, especially after Algerian media indicated that authorities might halt the agreement.
   

Algerian reports reveal that Morocco’s revenues from transiting Algerian gas from its territory are estimated at USD 170 million in 2018, falling to USD 113 million in 2019 and USD 56 million in 2020. Morocco obtains these revenues in the form of natural gas, the amount of which is estimated at 600 million cubic meters annually.

The escalating controversy over the pipeline is closely linked to Morocco’s efforts to launch a new project with Nigeria, transporting Nigerian gas to Europe through a pipeline that passes through 13 African countries ending in Morocco. The two countries signed an agreement to that effect in  June 2018,  indicating that Morocco was seeking to expand its options regarding new sources of gas supply, especially in light of the continuing differences with Algeria. Additionally, it reveals that Morocco has tried to exploit its growing relations with some African powers, especially Nigeria, on the economic level, in order to change, or at least neutralize its position, on the Sahara issue.

4. Exchanged accusations of meddling in internal affairs: In response to Morocco’s constant accusations against Algeria of interfering in its internal affairs by supporting the Polisario Front, Algeria, in turn, began accusing Morocco of supporting some Algerian separatist parties. On July 18^th, Algeria announced the immediate recall of its ambassador to Rabat, and a statement by the Algerian Ministry of Foreign Affairs revealed that it “requested clarification from the Kingdom of Morocco regarding …. the rejected statements of its ambassador in New York, and due to the absence of a positive and appropriate response from the Moroccan side, the Algerian ambassador to Morocco has been recalled.” The statement noted that the Moroccan ambassador to the United Nations distributed a document to the Foreign Ministers of the Non-Aligned Movement on July 13 and 14 stating that the Berber Kabylie region in eastern Algeria was under colonization,  calling for granting it the right to self-determination.
   
   Algeria also leveled accusations ,on August 18^th,  that Morocco was involvement in the recent wave of fires across Algeria, despite Rabat’s offer to contribute to the efforts to extinguish them, to which Algeria offered no response. Morocco was also accused of supporting the Kabylie Independence Movement (MAK), which is classified by Algerian authorities as a terrorist organization, as well as the Rachad Movement, which was accused of plotting terrorist acts and threatening Algerian national security.
   
5. Differences on Iran’s regional influence: Morocco and Algeria adopt different stances regarding various regional issues. These differences are particularly clear regarding Iran, which has lately sought to strengthen its presence in the North African region, taking advantage in this context of its strong relations with Algeria. Morocco announced the severance of diplomatic relations with Iran on May 2, 2018, after confirming that Iran and the Lebanese Hezbollah supported the Polisario Front. Meanwhile, Algeria has taken several steps to develop its relations with Iran, the most recent of which was Prime Minister Ayman bin Abdel Rahman’s attendance of Iranian President Ibrahim Raisi’s inauguration ceremony on August 5.
   
   It is of note that Algerian-Iranian relations were a point of discussion during Israeli Foreign Minister Yair Lapid’s visit to Rabat from August 11 to 13. Lapid expressed his concern over close Algerian-Iranian relations , criticizing Algeria for launching a campaign against accepting Israel as an observer in the African Union. The Algerian political leadership perceived this as an attempt by  Morocco resorted to exploit its strengthening relations with Israel to threaten Algeria’s national security. Algeria accused Morocco of inciting Lapid to make these statements, which it described as “false” and impinging on “Algerian sovereignty.”

It can be argued that the severing of diplomatic relations may not be the last development in the crisis between Algeria and Morocco.  There are a number of ongoing issues ̉between the two countries, particularly at the bilateral level, which could lead to a further rise in tensions between the two countries in the coming period.