The Baghdad II Summit for cooperation and partnership was hosted by Jordan on 20 December with the participation of Jordan, France, Iraq, GCC countries, Egypt, Turkey, Iran, as well as the European Union, the League of Arab States, the Gulf Cooperation Council, the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, and the United Nations. In its final statement, the summit affirmed support for Iraq’s stability and security, as well as enhanced efforts to uphold the rule of law and promote the development of cooperation between Iraq and states in the region. It was agreed that the third summit would be held in Egypt next year.

Significant Timing 

It is noteworthy that the participating countries, especially France, were keen to hold the summit before the end of 2022, suggesting that Paris is keen to meet annually given that the first summit was held in Baghdad on 28 August 2021. It also suggests that France is seeking to strengthen its role in the region’s main issues, as part of its attempt to reformulate its global role in a volatile global environment. Paris may be considering the possibility it could fill any strategic vacuum that might result from US withdrawal from the Middle East, as alters its focus towards the Indo-Pacific region. However, Washington appears to confirm continued interest in the Middle East, in view of the international and regional repercussions of the war in Ukraine.

The summit was the first international event chaired by the new Iraqi Prime Minister, Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani, and the second regional event in which he participated after attending the Arab Chinese summit in Riyadh. Al-Sudani’s participation provided an opportunity for the countries involved with Iraq to become acquainted with the outlines of his government’s  foreign policy , in the wake of the political instability which followed the parliamentary elections of October, 2021.

The conference was  also held at a time of heightened disputes between Iran and several regional and international powers participating in the summit, including Saudi Arabia and France. The dialogue between Iran and Saudi Arabia, which was being held under Iraqi auspices, was interrupted during its fifth round, and remains stagnant in light of the parties’ outstanding disputes over many issues, primarily those relating to Yemen and nuclear power.

Disagreement between Iran and France has widened because of stalled nuclear negotiations. France has strongly criticized Iran, threatening to trigger a mechanism that activates international sanctions against it. Also deepening the contention between the two countries is the matter of the seven French prisoners held captive in Iran, as well as Iran’s military support for Russia in the Ukrainian war.

In parallel, the summit was held only days after the security threat ignited in Jordan by the killing of Colonel Abdel Razak al-Dalabiyeh, and the  military operation targeting  Takfiri suspects, which resulted in the death of three policemen and the injury of five others. This meant that the summit was an important show of support by participating states for Jordan’s security and stability.

Key Issues 

While supporting Iraq’s security and stability, and strengthening relations between Iraq and regional states was the most prominent item on the agenda of the Summit, this does not preclude the fact that other issues of importance were put forward, including the following:

 Climate change and energy: during the summit, France addressed climate change and energy, reflecting its particular interest in these two issues in light of global developments on climate change, as well as the energy crisis that Europe continues to suffer as a result of the Russian-Ukrainian war.

 Climate change is an important issue to Iraq, in view of the warnings made by many organizations about the impact of climate change on Iraq. Ghulam Isaac Zee, Deputy Special Representative of the Secretary-General, Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator for Iraq, declared on 13 November 2022, that climate change is the greatest threat Iraq has ever faced.

Of note is that the summit’s final statement focused on electrical projects connecting GCC countries and Iraq, as well as development projects between Egypt and Jordan. Besides paying attention to supporting Iraq’s water needs, which is an issue of contention with both Turkey and Iran, Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan also stressed that Riyadh and Baghdad are cooperating through their partnerships with OPEC and OPEC Plus in order to maintain the stability of global oil markets.

Iranian show of goodwill: Iran used the summit to showcase goodwill on two main issues: resuming Iran-Saudi dialogue, and nuclear negotiations. Prior to the summit, Iranian Ambassador to Beirut Mujtabi Amani noted that the summit could be an opportunity for an Iranian-Saudi meeting, as Iran welcomes  improved relations with Saudi Arabia.

In parallel, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian meetings with EU Foreign Policy Coordinator Josep Borrell focused on nuclear power, which is of particular importance given that this meeting came two days after an IAEA delegation’s visit to Tehran. However, Iran’s show of goodwill is unlikely to produce positive repercussions as Iran remains keen to assert its position in its dialogue with Saudi Arabia as well as nuclear negotiations with international powers. 

Attracting international and regional support for peace: Jordan’s King Abdullah II demonstrated his interest in  addressing other issues, such as the peace process between Israel and the Palestinians, albeit indirectly, by stressing in his statement at the summit that  Jordan believes in the need for stability, justice, comprehensive peace and regional cooperation for the region’s economic development, overcoming poverty, and unemployment.

This was reflected in King Abdullah’s recent regional visits to Egypt and Algeria, as well as his participation in the Arab Chinese summit in Riyadh, where Jordan was concerned with the announcement of the formation of a new government in Israel, led by former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, which pushed Iran’s nuclear negotiations up the list of priorities, at the expense of interest in the Palestinian peace process.

Censuring interference by Tehran and Ankara: Several countries, notably France, Jordan, and Iraq, used the summit as an opportunity to communicate to Iran and Turkey that their interference in Iraq’s internal affairs is not welcome.  Iraq has recently witnessed  military incursions from  both countries, as Turkey sought to pursue PKK’s armed groups in northern Iraq, and Iran attacked Kurdish groups in northern Iraq, accusing them of supporting domestic protests in Iran through arms smuggling.

Persistent Challenges 

There are concrete challenges that undermine efforts to implement the summit’s objective of supporting Iraq’s security and stability. Although  the participating countries wish to support stability in Iraq, they are unwilling to become embroiled in its domestic affairs. However, these domestic issues, such as the existence of non-state militant entities, and the growing influence of political blocs with affiliation to external powers, remain the main stumbling block to achieving stability.

Moreover, two key foreign actors have significant impact on efforts to bring security and stability to Iraq: the US and Iran. The US was absent from the summit, while Iran appeared preoccupied with other priorities. Iran is suspicious regarding the objectives of strengthening the scope of cooperation between Iraq and regional players, particularly  Arab governments Iran believes are working to reduce its influence. It is unlikely to reduce its level of  interference in Iraq’s internal affairs, nor will it stop using Iraq  as an arena to settle scores with other powers, particularly the US. Thus, these issues will continue to limit the success of this and other regional and international summits, in terms of improving conditions in Iraq.