Turkey is attempting to increase its level of influence in Lebanon, most recently it has extended military aid to the Lebanese Internal Defense Forces, humanitarian assistance and medical assistance through Turkish institutes and universities. These steps are likely to give Turkey an edge in expanding its sphere of influence in the Arab region as well as countering their rivals both regionally and internationally. 

Increased Interest in Lebanon

Turkey’s efforts to further develop its relations with Lebanon became clear in 2018 when Turkey promised to increase its military assistance to the Lebanese security forces, as well as contributing 7 million dollars in military equipment to the Lebanese “model” military regiment. 

Turkey also provided medical assistance to the victims of the explosion in Akar, north of Lebanon, that took place last August. Yasin Aktay, the official spokesperson of the Turkish presidency stated on the eve of his visit to Lebanon following the explosion in the port of Beirut, August 2020, that his country is more than willing and ready to help in rebuild the port. The head of the Turkish – Lebanese Business Council, Abdülkadir Akkuş, stated last July that his country was ready to rebuild the port under the system of BOT (Buy Operate Transfer). 

Turkey again tried to play a role during in the clashes that took place in Tripoli in January of this year, between protestors and the security forces. It offered to help restore buildings damaged during the clashes, especially one that was built during the Ottoman era. Tripoli has proved to be an important base of influence for Turkey, as the majority of its inhabitants are Sunni. Sunni charities, supported by Turkey, are widespread and active in promoting Turkish presence there. 

Moreover, Turkey is now moving to elevate its economic relations with Lebanon, with multiple meetings between officials of the two countries. The most notable of these was the meeting between the then caretaker prime Saad El Hariri, and the Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, in Ankara last June, as well as the meeting of the Turkish-Lebanese Business Council last July. As per the data published by the Council, the total amount of exports to Lebanon from Turkey in the first two months of 2021 reached 200 million dollars and could reach as high as 1 billion dollars by the end of the year. 

Multiple Objectives

Turkey’s growing interest in Lebanon is motivated by a variety of factors, these include:

1. Competition East of the Mediterranean: Turkey seeks to enhance its influence in Lebanon and the area east of the Mediterranean in hopes of supplanting western presence there, specifically French presence. Turkey hopes its growing influence could allow it to play a mediating role in Lebanon’s political crisis, thereby adding to its cards in negotiations regarding Syria, and could open the door to a transactional relationship with Israel. Influence in Lebanon could therefore give Turkey leverage over its regional rivals. 
2. Energy: Energy is an important variable in the regional equation, especially since its efforts to explore for energy sources east of the Mediterranean are being strongly opposed, while on the other hand, joint Arab cooperation in this area is increasing. These include the recently concluded agreement to move gas  from Egypt to Lebanon through Syria and Jordan. Turkey, on its part, believes Lebanon could act as a strategic base from which to support and secure its exploration projects along the shores of Cyprus and Greece, which are being met with strong regional and international condemnation. Turkey’s ambitions explain the offer made by the Turkish foreign minister to demarcate the maritime borders between Lebanon and Turkey, and to build a joint pipeline to export gas and oil to Europe, in an attempt to outmaneuver Russia which seeks to dominate Syrian and Lebanese gas exports. 
3. Countering Iranian Influence in Lebanon: Competition between Iran and Turkey over regional issues continues, despite Turkey’s attempt to minimize its disagreements with Iran over the conflict in Syria, and Turkish military operations in Iraq, and despite the fact that Turkey has become an economic outlet for Iran in the face of American sanctions. In this context, we can note that economic, military, and political relations between the two countries are on the rise, in parallel with rising disagreements over Syria and Iraq. There is moreover competition between the two countries in Lebanon, where Iran successfully exploits its strong political and ideological ties with Hezbollah, while Turkey is seeking t influence through supporting the Sunnis in the north of Lebanon. 
4. Economic Benefits: Turkey is currently in the throes of an economic crisis and is looking to open new markets for its companies, such as new opportunities in reconstruction following the explosion in the port of Beirut. Turkey’s economic engagement in  Lebanon could also  give it more leverage in respect to exploring  the eastern Mediterranean, as well as a chance to bail out Turkish companies hit by difficult economic conditions as well as the fallout from the Covid 19 epidemic. 

In conclusion, it can be argued that gaining influence in Lebanon has become an objective of Turkish foreign policy. Turkish interest in Lebanon has steadily grown since the outbreak of the Syrian crisis in 2011, and then the growing importance and interest in gas resources of the eastern Mediterranean. Through achieving influence in Lebanon, Turkey hopes to hold more cards in negotiations over these and other issues with competing regional and global powers.