The ISIS attack in the vicinity of Kabul Airport on August 26 which killed US soldiers, Afghan civilians and members of the Taliban, has raised concerns ISIS might attack US forces in other countries. ISIS is known to have cells in 16 regions around the world, and of these, 6 principal cells are located in places where US forces are deployed, including Iraq, Syria, Africa, and Southeast Asia. 

The attack at Kabul Airport has energized ISIS members around the world, as reflected in their increased activity, and the videos being circulated, on public and private channels on the Dark Web. ISIS affiliates in West Africa have been particularly motivated, and view the attacks by ISIS Khorasan as a call for them and others to carry out similar attacks against US and European military forces based in the region.  Statements by ISIS in West Africa announced impending attacks on French and European forces in the Sahel region. Analysts also believe ISIS branches in Syria and Iraq are likely to carry out terrorist attacks in the near future. 

 Targeting US Forces 

Since the establishment of ISIS in 2014, it has targeted its attacks at what it refers to as the “near enemy”, i.e., the governments and institutions of the countries in which ISIS operates. ISIS has regarded attacks on Western targets, the “distant enemy”, to be of secondary importance. After the Kabul Airport attack by ISIS Khorasan, it appears that the priorities have shifted throughout the various branches of ISIS. 

A change in ISIS’s strategy can be traced back to statements following the fall of Baghouz in March 2019 , as well as further elaborations by the official spokesman Abu Hamza Al Qurashi in early 2021. These statements reflect a new approach that targets both the “near” and “far” enemies, reflected in the establishment of a new unit specifically dedicated to carrying out attacks on Western targets. These attacks rely on the element of surprise, using suicide bombers to achieve maximum military and/or civilian casualties. Abdel Rahman Al-Lagouri used this tactic at Kabul airport, using primitive weapons. This is a markedly different style to ISIS’s previous, far more sophisticated attacks, which were aimed at much larger targets and involved multiple terrorists. 

How will ISIS Target Western forces?

The strategy ISIS intends to use against western forces has been labelled “appearance and vanishing”. Its objective is to carry out surprise operations against Western targets and forces in the region using suicide operations, run-overs, stabbings, detonations of IEDs, shooting and other simple tools that involve a limited human and material cost to the organization, along the following lines: 

Choosing a “soft” target:  A specific site is chosen for an attack, which is usually a location difficult to secure, such as Kabul airport, where thousands of Afghans were congregating, in addition to the presence of US and other Western forces.

Using Simple, readily available weapons: The strategy relies on using primitive means, such as IEDs, single-person killings, kidnappings, and suicide operations that can produce greater impact at lower cost. Such attacks are therefore difficult to predict, take place swiftly and rely on the element of surprise. They moreover garner wide media coverage that bolsters the prestige of the organization and the confidence of its members.

Suicidal lone Wolves: The new approach to targeting US and Western forces relies on the deployment of lone wolves, who are in this case ready to undertake suicidal missions. Attacks involve only one or two members of the organization, allowing for ease of movement of the perpetrators, and  making tracking by security services more difficult.

ISIS motives in changing strategy

Revenge against International Coalition forces: The international coalition forces led by the US and involving forces from Western countries, succeeded in carrying out many operations against ISIS. These operations targeted and killed many first and second rank leaders of the organization, including its former leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, and its official spokesperson Abu Hassan al-Muhajir, prompting ISIS to seek revenge.

Demonstrating ISIS ability to survive: ISIS has been making a great effort to demonstrate it is able to survive and continue to operate. This explains why it has withdrawn from certain areas in order to expand its activities in others. It has also adopted a decentralized pattern in its expansion. Targeting Western forces has also allowed ISIS to expand its base of support and attract more recruits.

In sum, the terrorist operation by ISIS-Khorasan against Kabul Airport, and the many US military casualties that ensued can be considered an indication that other ISIS branches are likely to target US and European forces deployed in the region. These attacks are viewed by ISIS as a means of ensuring organizational continuity, in the face of the limited resources now available to it, as well as the loss of most of its leaders and the territories it used to control. These losses resulted in a decline in the popularity of the organization, which had actively promoted its successful operations. After losing their so-called Caliphate in Iraq in Syria, ISIS is now hoping that expanding its attacks to include Western as well as regional targets will give it renewed vigor and strength.